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09.23.2022 11 new Morning Note posts under Morning Note (10) and CAPIS Insights (1)

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"CAPIS Morning Note – 03/24/22: Summit in Brussels as The War Drags On"

posted by CAPIS on 03/24/2022 at 8:17 am

by CAPIS

03/24/2022 at 8:17 am

PLEASE NOTE:  Due to travel, the Morning Note will not be published Friday March 25.

Overnight Summary:  The S&P 500 closed yesterday at 4456.24 from 4511.61 on Tuesday. The S&P 500 now has one up and two down days this week so far. Most notable is that the S&P 500 closed above 4500 on Tuesday and failed there yesterday. Will it rebound today and become support? The overnight high was hit at 4:55 a.m. EDT at 4479. The low came at 4454 at 6:15 p.m. EDT. The current level is 4476 up 28.50 points which is +0.64% at 5:30 a.m. EDT.

Earnings Out After The Close:

  • Beats: TCOM +0.98, OXM +0.23, FUL +0.07, COOK +0.05, OLLI +0.03.
  • Flat: None of note.
  • Misses: KBH (0.07), SCS (0.02).

Capital Raises:

  • IPOs Priced or News: None of note.
  • New SPACs launched/News:
    • Ligand (LGND) to Spin-Off its OmniAb Business Through Merger with Avista Public Acquisition Corp. II (AHPA).
  • Secondaries Priced:
    • ARGX prices offering. 1.55 million shares priced at $300 per share.
    • APLS: Proposed Public Offering of Common Stock .. $300 million .. JPM, GS and Evercore bookmanagers.
    • JD Logistics (JD subsidiary) proposes to conduct a placing of new ordinary shares for an aggregate amount of up to approximately US$400 million.
    • RGTI: Filed Form S-1.. UP TO 19,354,059 shares of common stock issuable upon exercise of warrants.
    • Super Group (SGHC) files for 481,074,588 share common stock offering by selling shareholders.
  • Notes Priced of note:
    • OMI: Upsize and Pricing of $600 Million of Senior Notes Due 2030.
  • Common Stock filings/Notes:
    • Atmos Energy (ATO) files prospectus supplement disclosing entry into distribution agreement with sales agents regarding up to $1 billion in stock from time to time.
  • Pricing of Over-Allotment/Notes: None of note.
  • Direct Offering: None of note.
  • Selling Shareholders of note: None of note.
  • Private Placement of Public Entity (PIPE): None of note.
  • Mixed Shelf Offerings: None of note.
  • Convertible Offering & Notes Filed:
    • ASND: Proposed Convertible Senior Notes Offering of $500 million.
    • Humana (HUM) Completes Aggregate $750 Million Debt Offering.
    • Blackstone Mortgage Trust (BXMT) Announces Public Offering of Convertible Senior Notes.

Capital Raise Summary From The TradeXchange, bringing traders and investors real time news and Squawk Box, and other sources.

News After The Close:

  • After Hours: 
    • Trading Up: OXM +8%, FUL +4%.
    • Trading Down: COOK -15%, APLS -7%, KBH -4%, ASND -4%, SCS -4%.
  • News After The Close:
    • Stocks making the biggest moves after hours: KBH, SPOT, GME (CNBC)
    • California Governor Gavin Newsom proposes $11 billion relief package for higher gas prices.
    • The Biden administration will allow some Chinese imports to avoid Trump-era tariffs. (NYT)
    • Traeger (COOK) stock falls more than 11% after grilll maker calls for leaner sales this year. (MarketWatch)
    • Tommy Bahama parent Oxford (OXM) Industries beats Q4 view, raises dividend by 31%, (MarketWatch)
    • ‘Meme stock’ rally redux? GameStop (GME), AMC shares rocket higher. (Reuters)
    • Assets Under Management: RJF +17% y/y for AUA and +10% for AUM.
    • Russian/Ukraine News:
      • U.S. Sets Red Lines For China Helping Russia Dodge Sanctions. (Reuters).
      • White House To Seek $813.3 Billion National Security Budget.  (Bloomberg)
      • UK will provide 6,000 new defensive missiles and £25m for Ukraine’s armed forces.
      • Renault Shuts Down In Russia And Weighs Quitting Venture. (Bloomberg)
      • First U.S. arms shipment from President Biden’s $800 million package for Ukraine to soon start heading to Ukraine -U.S. Defense official.
      • Ukrainian Agriculture Minister Roman Leshchenko Has Resigned – Aide Confirms To Reuters Without Stating Reason. (Reuters)
  • Exchange/Listing/Company Reorg and Personnel News:
    • Ashford (AINC) identified errors related to the recognition of cost reimbursement revenue and reimbursed expenses within subsidiary, Remington Lodging & Hospitality for certain insurance and hotel management related salaries.
    • Imago BioSciences (IMGO) appoints Michael Arenberg as Chief Operating and Business Officer.
    • PS Business Parks, Inc. (PSB) President and CEO Dan “Mac” Chandler, III Steps Down for Health Reasons; Stephen W. Wilson to Continue to Serve as Interim President and Chief Executive Officer.
    • RIOT Riot Blockchain discloses entrance into separation and release agreement with COO Megan Brooks-Anderson leaving 7/7.
    • Veoneer (VNE) reports planned date for closing of merger and future CEO.
    • Yunji (YJ) Has Regained Compliance with Nasdaq’s Minimum Bid Price Requirement.
  • Buyback Announcements:
    • STGW $125 million Buyback announced.
    • Wix (WIX) is announcing today that its board authorized a program to repurchase up to $500 million of its securities from time to time. Wix intends to file a motion seeking court approval in Israel for its repurchase program, which is subject to receipt of court approval.
    • WPP plc (WPP) entered into £300 million share buyback program.
  • Stock Splits: None of note.
  • Dividends Announcements:
    • BankUnited (BKU) raises quarterly dividend to $0.25 per share, a 9% increase.
    • Oxford Industries (OXM) increases quarterly dividend to $0.55 per share, a 31% increase. (MarketWatch)

What’s Happening This Morning: Futures value reflects the change with fair value.

S&P 500 +21, Dow Jones +134, NASDAQ +85, and Russell 2000 +8.  Asia and Europe higher ex France. VIX Futures are at 24.55 from 25.19 yesterday morning. Gold and Silver higher with Copper lower. WTI Crude Oil and Brent Oil Futures are higher. Natural Gas is lower. $ is higher vs Euro, higher vs Pound and higher vs Yen. US 10 year Treasury sees yields at 2.363% from 2.368% yesterday. Bitcoin is at $43,157 from $42,005 yesterday at 2.16% this morning. As of 8:11 a.m. EDT.

Wednesday’s Action – 03/22/22 Close:  

  • Daily Positive Sectors: Energy, Basic Materials of note.
  • Daily Negative Sectors: Financial, Healthcare, Technology, Real Estate, Consumer Defensive, Consumer Cyclical, Communication Services, Industrials of note.
  • One Month Winners: Energy, Utilities and Basic Materials of note.
  • Three Month Winners: Energy, Utilities and Basic Materials of note.
  • Six Month Winners: Energy, Basic Materials, Utilities of note.
  • Twelve Month Winners: Energy, Utilities, and Real Estate of note.
  • Year to Date Winners: Energy and Basic Materials of note.

Indexes declined across the board and oil rocketed higher.  The Russell 2000 was down 1.73%.  USO was up 4.32%.  Updated 03/23/22 close.

Upcoming Earnings Of Note: (sorted by market cap, highest to lowest with most visible names)

  • Thursday After the Close: HNST, ANNX of note.
  • Friday Before the Open: DOOO of note.

Earnings of Note This Morning:

  • Beats: KC +2.50, TITN +0.45, FDS +0.30, SNA +0.30.
  • Flat: None of note.
  • Misses: MOMO (0.35), DRI (0.17).
  • Still to Report: NEOG.

Guidance:

  • Positive Guidance: OXM.
  • Negative Guidance: EPAC, COOK, OLLI, SCS, KC, DRI.

Erlanger Research Advance/Decline Chart: Updated through 03/23/22 close.

Gap Ups & Down In Early Pre-Market:

  • Gap Up: OXM +6.5%, TCOM +6.2%, SOL +5.9%, PLTK +5.1%, FUL +5.1%.
  • Gap Down: COOK -18.6%, ENJY -10.7%, MOMO -8%, APLS -6.9%, SCS -5.8%, JD -4.1%.

Insider Action: CECE, ASPN, GME, PLCE sees Insider buying with dumb short selling. No stock sees Insider buying with smart short sellers. 03/23/22 close.

Rags & Mags: Repeated stories from prior days never listed, i.e. “rehashed news”. Sorted by Global, U.S. and stock specific.

  • Stocks Making The Biggest Moves: KBH, SPOT, NKLA, FDS, GME, DRI (CNBC)
  • Five Things You Need to Know to Start Your Day. (Bloomberg)
  • NATO discussing actions if Russia uses nuclear or chemical weapons. (NYT)
  • Major cities New York, Los Angeles, San Francisco and Chicago lost 700,000 residents in 2021 as flight from cities continues. (NYT)
  • NATO estimates 7,000 to 15,000 Russian troops have been killed in Ukraine. (WSJ)
  • U.S. to supply Europe with natural gas and hydrogen.  (Bloomberg)
  • Hertz (HTZ) will add Tesla ((TSLA) Model Y to its fleet. (Reuters)
  • Russia reopens its stocks market with only 15% of shares to trade, foreigners unable to sell shares and short selling banned. U.S. calls Russian market not a “real market”.
  • Foreign investors have unloaded $9.5 billion of mainland Chinese stocks this month, reflecting a reassessment of geopolitical risk following the financial isolation of Russia.
  • Beijing closes in on security pact that will allow Chinese troops in Solomon Islands. (FT)

Moving Average Update:

  • The Doors song did not do it.  Need more cow bell!  Score slumps to 63% from 86%.  Updated 03/23/22 close.

Geopolitical: 

  • President’s Public Schedule:
    • President Biden and world leaders convene first of trio of emergency summits in Brussels focusing on Russia’s month-long war in Ukraine.

Economic

  • February Durable Orders is due out at 8:30 a.m. EDT and is expected to fall to -0.5% from 1.60%.
  • Initial Jobless Claims 8:30 a.m. EDT
  • PMI Composite Flash 9:15 a.m. EDT
  • EIA natural Gas Report 10:30 a.m. EDT
  • KC Fed Mfg Index 11:00 a.m. EDT
  • The latest NYSE and NASDAQ Short Interest Data is due out after the close and will report on the data through March 11th close. During the latest update, the S&P 500 fell -1.97%.

Federal Reserve Speakers:

  • Federal Reserve Chicago President Charles Evans 9:50 a.m. EDT
  • Federal Reserve Atlanta President Raphael Bostinc 11:00 a.m. EDT

M&A Activity:

  • China Online Education Group (COE) Announces Receipt of a Non-Binding Proposal to Acquire Mainland China Business of the Company.
  • Mitek (MITK) Acquires UK-based HooYu in All Cash GBP 98 Million Deal.
  • Playtika (PLTK) announces acquisition of JustPlay.LOL.

Meeting & Conferences of Note:

  • Sellside Conferences:
    • Bank of America EMEA Real Estate CEO Virtual Conference 2022 (03/24/22-03/25/22)
    • The Canaccord Genuity eCommerce Sustainable Advantage Virtual Forum 2022
    • Jefferies Business Services Summit 2022
    • Goldman Sachs European Digital Economy Conference (03/24/22-03/25/22)
    • Goldman Sachs Digital Evolution of Global Gaming Conference 2022 (03/24/22-03/25/22)
    • Ladenburg Thalmann Virtual Special Crypto Expo 2022
    • RBC Capital Markets ESG Conference
      • Previously Announced  Conferences:
        • BAC Health Care Back-to-Basics Conference
        • Enterprise Connect
        • Bank of America Asia Pacific APAC Telecom, Media & Technology TMT Conference 2022 (03/14/22-03/26/22)
        • Citi European TMT Conference 2022 (03/21/22-03/24/22)
        • Credit Suisse Asian Investment Conference 2022 (03/21/22-03/30/22)
        • Guggenheim Healthcare Talks 2022 (03/16/22-04/01/22)
        • HSBC Oil and Gas Investor Trip 2022 (03/21/22-03/25/22)
        • JP Morgan Global Environmental, Social, and Governance ESG Conference 2022 (03/21/22-03/24/22)
        • Jefferies Synthetic Biology Week 2022 (03/21/22-03/25/22)
        • JP Morgan: European Internet Seminars 2022 (03/21/22-03/30/22)
        • KeyBanc Capital Markets Life Sciences & MedTech Investor Forum 2022 (03/21/22-03/24/22)
        • Morgan Stanley Virtual Hong Kong Summit 2022 (03/21/22-03/24/22)
        • Sidoti and Company, LLC Spring Small Cap Conference 2022 (03/23/22-03/24/22)
        • SocGen Energy Transition Conference 2022 (03/21/22-03/25/22)
  • Company Meetings: ABB, DTRC.
  • Fireside Chat: ASAN (w/ Jefferies hosting).
  • Investor/Analyst Day/Calls: ACM, AIZ, ALK, ARMC, CABGY, CLS, FULC, INIT, INTT, JBT, MRNA, NKLA, TCEHY, VERA.
  • Update: MITK.
  • R&D Day: None of note.
  • Company Event: ADDYY Innovation Day (03/21/22-03/30/22), NVIDIA GTC 2022 ( 03/21/22-03/24/22).
  • Industry Meetings:
    • Palm Beach International Boat Show 2022 (03/24/22-03/27/22)
    • NYSE Investor Access Day – Energy & Utilities 2022
    • 12th China International New Energy Vehicle Forum 2022 (03/24/22-03/25/22)
      • Previously Posted and Ongoing Conferences:
        • Annual National Association of Social Workers (NASW) Arkansas State Conference 2022 (03/23/22-03/25/22)
        • 41st International Symposium on Intensive Care and Emergency Medicine (ISICEM) 2022 (03/22/22-03/25/22)
        • Annual Clinical Genetics Meeting (ACMG) 2022 (03/22/22-03/26/22)
        • World Petrochemical Conference (WPC) (03/22/22-03/25/22)
        • Swiss Mining Institute Forum 2022 (03/22/22-03/24/22)
        • 121 Mining Investment APAC Virtual 2022 (03/22/22-03/24/22)
        • Sachs Neuroscience Innovation Forum 2022
        • GOMACTech conference 2022 (03/21/22-03/24/22)
        • Applied Power Electronics Conference (APEC) 2022 – Houston (03/20/22-03/24/22)

Top Tier Sell-side Upgrades & Downgrades:

The recommendations listed below in this “Upgrade/Downgrade” section are compiled from what we believe are Tier I, II and III firms. Recommendations posted are taken from a variety of sources each day and we only post upgrades or significant initiations as well as downgrades to underweight or sell. The purpose of this posting it to make the reader aware of market moving recommendations. None of these recommendations should be interpreted as actual recommendations from CAPIS or its employees.

Today’s Upgrades and Downgrades:

      

Wednesday’s Upgrades and Downgrades:

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