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09.26.2022 11 new Morning Note posts under Morning Note (10) and CAPIS Insights (1)

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Morning Note

"CAPIS Morning Note – 05/02/22: Federal Reserve To Meet This Week And Is Likely To Move Markets Wednesday Through Friday"

posted by CAPIS on 05/02/2022 at 8:09 am

by CAPIS

05/02/2022 at 8:09 am

Overnight Summary: The S&P 500 closed Friday at 4131.93 from 4287.50 on Thursday down -3.63. Futures have traded higher overnight but are off their highs. The overnight high of 4158 was hit at 3:10 a.m. EDT. The low was hit at 4,116.75 at 6:35 p.m. EDT, a range of 42 points high to low which has been a typical range of late. At 7:25 a.m. EDT the current price is 4139.75 which is +0.30% and 12.25 points.

Breaking News: U.S. Embassy may return to Kyiv by the end of May if conditions permit.

Earnings Out After The Close:

  • Beats: None of note.
  • Flat: None of note.
  • Misses: None of note.

Capital Raises:

  • IPOs Priced or News: None of note.
  • New SPACs launched/News: None of note.
  • Secondaries Priced:
    • RZLT $130m offering at $3.80 per share.
  • Notes Priced of note: None of note.
  • Common Stock filings/Notes:
    • DCPH: Announces Closing of Public Offering of Common Stock and Pre- funded Warrants and Full Exercise of Underwriters’ Option to Purchase Additional Shares.
    • PCT: Filed Form S-3.. 53,571,408 Shares of Common Stock.
    • ISPO: Filed Form S-1.. 69,780,665 Shares of Class A Common Stock Issuable Upon the Exchange of New Common Units and Class V Common Stock — 94,278,420 Shares of Class A Common Stock Secondary.
    • VYNT: Filed Form S-1.. 5,796,733 Shares of Common Stock.
  • Pricing of Over-Allotment/Notes: None of note.
  • Direct Offering: None of note.
  • Selling Shareholders of note:
    • Babylon (BBLN) files for 3,420,489 share common stock offering by selling shareholders.
  • Private Placement of Public Entity (PIPE):
    • CYN: Closing of $20 Million Private Placement Priced At-the-Market.
  • Mixed Shelf Offerings:
    • BNR: Filed Form F-3.. Mixed Shelf Offering.
    • CNEY: Filed Form F-3.. $100,000,000 Mixed Security Shelf.
    • MGLD mixed shelf for up to $100 Million.
    • OUST: Filed Form S-3.. $250 Million Mixed Shelf.
  • Convertible Offering & Notes Filed:
    • Baozun Inc. (BZUN) Announces Completion of Repurchase Right Offer for 1.625% Convertible Senior Notes due 2024.
    • VICI Properties (VICI) Announces Closing of $5.0 Billion Senior Unsecured Notes Offering.

Capital Raise Summary From The TradeXchange, bringing traders and investors real time news and Squawk Box, and other sources.

News After The Close and Over the Week:

  • Weekly Wrap Up: Best and Worst performing large cap stocks:
    • Trading Up: RUBY 25%, PDD 25%, ARCH 25%, EDU 22%, TAL 20%, JD 20%, ESPR 18%, PBI 17%, PTC 17%, STNG 16%, ARLP 15%, CEIX 15%, ABG 15%, MHK 14%, LC 14%, SHW 13%, DDS 13%, VC 13%.
    • Trading Down: TDOC -42%, CVNA -31%, CARA -27%, CPS -27%, UIS -22%, TRHC -22%, BBBY -22%, RYTM -22%, RILY -21%, FLWS -21%, ALNY -20%, GTHX -19%, HSII -19%, ACRS -19%, ALGN -19%.
  • News Items After the Close:
    • Johnson & Johnson (JNJ): Shareholders did not approve proposal to discontinue global sales of baby powder containing talc at annual meeting.
    • NortonLifeLock (NLOK) receives letter from SEC stating that its investigation of the company, which was originally announced on May 10, 2018, has concluded; SEC does not intend to recommend an enforcement action against NortonLifeLock.
    • Lockheed Martin (LMT) awarded a $305 million Missile Defense Agency contract modification.
    • Russian/Ukraine News:
      • Russian Foreign Ministry says Beijing is ready to expand cooperation with Moscow, but admits Chinese companies must be wary of secondary sanction risks.-IFAX via Reuters Russia expects commodity flows to China will grow, to reach $200 bln in trade with China in 2024.
      • EU to Propose Phasing Out Russian Oil by the End of the Year. (Bloomberg)
      • Rep Nancy Pelosi (D -CA) Meets Ukraine President Zelensky in Kyiv, as U.S. Support for Ukraine Grows (NYT)
  • News Items Over the Weekend:
    • Stocks that Defined the Week: AMZN, F, TWTR, WHR, MAT, HOOD, XOM (WSJ)
    • The Week in Business: The Twitter Deal.  (NYT)
    • Berkshire’s Munger: Robinhood (HOOD) had a “disgusting” business model that invovles kickbacks from firms selling order flow – Berkshire shareholder meeting.
    • Warren Buffett Says Markets Have Become a ‘Gambling Parlor’ (WSJ)
    • Charlie Munger says he doesn’t like bitcoin because its ‘stupid,’ ‘evil,’ and makes people look bad. (MarketWatch)
    • Qualcomm (QCOM) Inks $1.04B Automated Driving Chip Supply Deal With Volkswagen.
    •  Barron’s:
      • Positive View: TWTR, FB, LAD, TSLA.
      • Cautious View: SPOT.
      • Mixed View: None of note.
  • Exchange/Listing/Company Reorg and Personnel News:
    • Geoff Morrell, Disney’s (DIS) top exec of corporate affairs, ousted after a series of public relations debacles.
    • McCormick (MKC) appoints Brendan Foley to the role of Chief Operating Officer and President.
    • MoneyGram (MGI) COO Hilary Jackson will be leaving the company on May 2.
  • Buyback Announcements:
    • Align Tech (ALGN) announces $200 million accelerated stock repurchase program. CEO to personally purchase $2.0 million.
    • BioNTech (BNTX )announced their share buyback program will commence today.  It will be conducted within a six-month period with a value of up to $1.0 billion,
  • Stock Splits: None of note.
  • Dividends Announcements: None of note.

What’s Happening This Morning: Futures value reflects the change with fair value.

S&P 500 -6, Dow Jones +8, NASDAQ -28, and Russell 2000 -4.  Europe lower ex the FTSE and Asian higher ex Shanghai.  VIX Futures are at 31.60 from 29.65  yesterday morning and the VIX closed at 33.85 from 33.52  on Friday. Gold, Silver and Copper lower. WTI Crude Oil and Brent Oil Futures lower with Natural Gas higher. $ is higher vs Euro, higher vs Pound and higher vs Yen. US 10 year Treasury sees yields at 2.918% from 2.868%. Bitcoin is at $38704 from $38,825 Friday morning and is higher by 2.29% from the weekend. As of 8:04 a.m. EDT.

Sector Action – 04/29/22 Close:  

  • Daily Positive Sectors:  of note.
  • Daily Negative Sectors: ALL of note.
  • One Month Winners: Real Estate, Consumer Defensive, and Utilities of note.
  • Three Month Winners: Energy, Utilities and Basic Materials of note.
  • Six Month Winners: Energy, Basic Materials, Utilities of note.
  • Twelve Month Winners: Energy, Utilities, and Consumer Defensive of note.
  • Year to Date Winners: Energy, Utilities, and  Basic Materials of note.

Indexes were all down more than 2%.  NASDAQ down 4.17%, had worst month since 2008.  TLT closed at $119.45 down 1.30%. Updated 04/29/22 close.

Upcoming Earnings Of Note: (sorted by market cap, highest to lowest with most visible names)

  • Monday After the Close: NTR, NXPI, WMB, DVN, ANET, EXPE, MOS, FANG, CTRA, ZI, MPWR, BXP, MGM, CLX, FMC, CAR, SEDG, LOGI, CACC, VNO, WWD, OHI, AGNC, RHP, VNOM, VRNS, LEG, FRPT, AMKR, FLS, OGS, ORA, OUT, CBT, FN, CHGG, KMPR, DNLI, QTWO, RIG, JJSF, CNO, RMBS, OTTR, SANM, KMT, MED, MWA, NTB, KFRC, ADUS, BIGC, HLIT, PLOW of note.
  • Tuesday Before the Open: PFE, SPGI, BP, EL, ITW, FIS, ETN, TRI, MPC, KKR, PEG, MPLX, BIIB, ROK, AME, CMI, ZBH, IT, MLM, PARA, CNHI, CMS, ZBRA, CNP, QSR, WAT, DISH, INCY, CTLT, WLK, EXPD, HWM, LDOS, BEN, HSIC, TAP, TEVA, AGCO, SEE, NNN, BHC, SMG, ITT, LPX, CIGI, IPGP, NRZ, PINC, ATKR, TRTN, BPMC, ETRN, CVLT, VSH, MTOR, HEP, XHR, LGIH, DK, KYMR, DEA, RDWR, SPNS, SMP, HSC, GEO, ESPR of note.

Earnings of Note This Morning:

  • Beats: NPO +0.53, TKR +0.45, AMG +0.31, SAIA +0.26, WEC +0.11, PK +0.09, EPD +0.07, GPN +0.03, INMD +0.02, AKTS +0.02.
  • Flat: MCO +0.00.
  • Misses: GPRE (0.85), JELD (0.17), CNA (0.06).
  • Still to Report: FSS , ITRI , ON.

Guidance:

  • Positive Guidance: PK, WEC of note.
  • Negative Guidance: BILI, TKR, MCO of note.

Erlanger Research Advance/Decline Chart: Updated through 04/29/22 close.

Gap Ups & Down In Early Pre-Market:

  • Gap Up: EAR +9%, SUPN +9%, OUST +5%, JELD +5%, ADVM +4%.
  • Gap Down: HCM -25%, NAVI -4%.

Insider Action: HMTV, ALTG, BECN sees Insider buying with dumb short selling NKTX sees Insider buying with smart short sellers. 04/29/22 close.

Rags & Mags: Repeated stories from prior days never listed, i.e. “rehashed news”. Sorted by Global, U.S. and stock specific.

  • Stocks Making The Biggest Moves: ATVI BILI MCO GPN (CNBC)
  • Five Things You Need to Know to Start Your Day. (Bloomberg)
  • Japan is selling bonds quietly contributing to the losses in the bond market. (Bloomberg)
  • Beijing tightened Covid-19 restrictions even more. (FT)
  • Germany wants time to phase in the Russian Oil Embargo. (FT)
  • President Biden may cancel $10,000 of student debt for those making less than $150,000. (The Washington Post)
  • Medical professionals are skeptical of a fourth vaccine dose. (CNBC)
  • Markets closed for the Labor Day holiday in the UK, China, and Russia. Markets are closed in Japan, for Children’s Day.

Moving Average Update:

  • Score goes hard in the paint to 0%.  Updated 04/29/22 close.

Geopolitical: 

  • President’s Public Schedule:
    • The President receives the President’s Daily Brief, 10:15 a.m. EDT
    • The President presents the Presidential Rank Awards to 230 winners from 37 federal agencies in a virtual ceremony, 1:45 p.m. EDT
    • Press Briefing with Press Secretary Jen Psaki, 2:30 p.m. EDT
    • The President and The First Lady host a reception to celebrate Eid al-Fitr; The Second Gentleman also attends, 4:00 p.m. EDT

Economic

  • PMI Mfg Final 9:45 a.m. EDT
  • April ISM Manufacturing Index is due out at 10:00 a.m. EDT and is expected to improve to 57.9% from 57.1%.
  • March Construction Spending is due out at 10:00 a.m. EDT and is expected to improve to 0.8% from 0.5%. 

Federal Reserve Speakers:

  • None of note.

M&A Activity:

  • WMS: Advanced Drainage Systems Announces Acquisition of Cultec, Inc.
  • Brown & Brown (BRO) to acquire the general insurance operations of Quinlan Insurance.
  • G-III (GIII) Apparel to purchase Karl Lagerfeld brand.
  • Ramaco Resources, Inc. (METC) completes acquisition of Ramaco Coal, LLC.
  • VICI Properties Inc. (VICI) Completes $17.2 Billion Strategic Acquisition of MGM Growth Properties LLC (MGP).

Meeting & Conferences of Note:

  • Sellside Conferences:
    • Bloom Burton & Co. Healthcare Investor Conference 2022 (05/02/22-05/03/22) 
    • Gulf South Bank Conference 2022 (05/02/22-05/03/22) 
    • Taglich Brothers 18th Annual Investment Conference.
    • CommsDay Summit.
    • Cowen Washington TMT Day.

      • Previously Announced  Conferences:
        • None of note.
  • Company Meetings: AFL, EXPD, LLY, NCR, RHE.
  • Fireside Chat: None of note.
  • Investor/Analyst Day/Calls: None of note.
  • Update: None of note.
  • R&D Day: None of note.
  • Company Event: Dell Technologies (DELL) World 2022 (05/02/22-05/05/22), 2022 Synthetic Biology (SYBX): Engineering, Evolution & Design (SEED) Conference
  • Industry Meetings:
    • Blue Cross Blue Shield BCBS National Summit 2022 (05/02/22-05/05/22)
    • Offshore Technology Conference (OTC) 2022 (05/02/22-05/05/22)
    • Geological Society of Nevada- GSN Symposium 2022 Vision for Discovery (05/02/22-05/05/22)
    • ISPA Conference.
      • Previously Posted and Ongoing Conferences:
        • The Association for Research in Vision and Ophthalmology ARVO 2022 (05/01/22-05/04/22)
        • Milken Institute Global Conference 2022 (05/01/22-05/04/22)

Top Tier Sell-side Upgrades & Downgrades:

The recommendations listed below in this “Upgrade/Downgrade” section are compiled from what we believe are Tier I, II and III firms. Recommendations posted are taken from a variety of sources each day and we only post upgrades or significant initiations as well as downgrades to underweight or sell. The purpose of this posting it to make the reader aware of market moving recommendations. None of these recommendations should be interpreted as actual recommendations from CAPIS or its employees.

Today’s Upgrades and Downgrades:

Previous Day’s Upgrades and Downgrades:

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