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09.26.2022 11 new Morning Note posts under Morning Note (10) and CAPIS Insights (1)

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"CAPIS Morning Note – 05/13/22: Stocks Look/Hope To Finish Week On A Positive Note. Can S&P 500 Retake 4000?"

posted by CAPIS on 05/13/2022 at 8:10 am

by CAPIS

05/13/2022 at 8:10 am

Overnight Summary: The S&P 500 closed Thursday at 3930.08 down -0.13% from 3935.18  on Wednesday.  Futures have traded higher overnight. The overnight high of 3976.75 was hit at 5:30 a.m. EDT. The low was hit at 3905 at 6:00 p.m. EDT, a range of 71 points high to low which is above the typical range of late with 45 the average. At 7:25 a.m. EDT the current price is 3969.50 which is 1.08% and 42.25 points.

Earnings Out After The Close:

  • Beats: AFRM +0.20, HRT +0.16, MSI +0.12, PAYO +0.11, MLNK +0.08, DUOL +0.06, POSH +0.04, HLI +0.03, TBLA +0.03, RYAN +0.02, VZIO +0.01, LAW +0.01.
  • Flat: AQN +0.00, INDI +0.00, NVTS +0.00.
  • Misses: TSVT (0.94), CDRE (0.50), BLND (0.14), TOST (0.08), UP (0.05), LZ (0.04), NEWR (0.04), COMP (0.03), VTEX (0.03), FIGS (0.01).

Capital Raises:

  • IPOs Priced or News:
    • BLTE: Partial Exercise of Over-Allotment Option in Initial Public Offering.
    • ProFrac Holding (PFHC) – Nasdaq: prices 16 million share IPO at $18.00 per share, below the $21-24 expected range.
  • New SPACs launched/News:
    • Silicon Battery Maker Amprius to Go Public in $1.3 Billion SPAC Merger (WSJ).
    • CF Acquisition Corp. VI (CFVI) and Rumble Announce Filing of Amended Registration Statement in Connection with their Proposed Business Combination.
  • Secondaries Priced: None of note.
  • Notes Priced of note: None of note.
  • Common Stock filings/Notes:
    • ADXS: Filed Form S-1.. Shares of common stocks and warrants.
    • ATHX: Filed Form 424B5.. $100,000,000 of Common Stock.
    • CRTD: Filed Form S-3.. 2,927,914 Shares of Common Stock.
    • CYN: Filed Form S-1.. 12,903,226 Shares of Common Stock.
    • LIQT: Proposed Public Offering of Common Stock and Pre-Funded Warrants.. Lake Strreet underwriter.
    • RMO: Filed Form 424B5.. Up to $200,000,000 of Common Stock.
  • Pricing of Over-Allotment/Notes: None of note.
  • Direct Offering: None of note.
  • Selling Shareholders of note:
    • ChargePoint (CHPT) files for 20,743,081 share common stock offering by selling shareholders.
    • BOX files for 18,518,484 share common stock offering by selling shareholders in the event of convertible preferred shares, issuable upon conversion.
  • Private Placement of Public Entity (PIPE): None of note.
  • Mixed Shelf Offerings:
    • ATXS: Filed Form S-3.. $250 Million Mixed Security Shelf.
    • SIEN: Filed Form S-3.. $100,000,000 Mixed Shelf.
    • WSR: Filed Form S-3.. $500,000,000 Mixed Shelf.
    • ZY: Filed Form S-3.. $200 Million Mixed Security Shelf.
  • Convertible Offering & Notes Filed:
    • SPR: Filed Form S-3ASR.. Debt Security shelf.

Capital Raise Summary From The TradeXchange, bringing traders and investors real time news and Squawk Box, and other sources.

News After The Close:

  • After Hours: 
    • Trading Up: AFRM +27%, HOOD +24%, PAYO +15%, HRT +13%, EDR +11%, INDI +11%, COMP +9%, DVAX +9%, DUOL +9%, AOSL +9%, COIN +6%, TOST +4%, OI +4%.
    • Trading Down:  FIGS -27%, NEWR -10%, TBLA -9%, ENFN -6%.
  • News Since The Close:
    • Twitter (TWTR): Elon Musk tweets “Twitter deal temporarily on hold pending details supporting calculation that spam/fake accounts do indeed represent less than 5% of users.”
    • Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell says he can’t guarantee a ‘soft landing’ as the Fed looks to control inflation. (CNBC)
    • FTX Founder Sam Bankman-Fried Buys 7.6% Stake in Robinhood (HOOD). (WSJ)
    • SIGA: New Contract Awarded by U.S. Department of Defense for the Procurement of up to Approximately $7.5 Million of Oral TPOXX.
    • Russian/Ukraine News:
      • Latest News in the Russia-Ukraine War. (WSJ)
  • Exchange/Listing/Company Reorg and Personnel News:
    • Compass (COMP) announces that CFO, Kristen Ankerbrandt, will be leaving Compass in September to pursue opportunities outside the Company.
    • Independence Realty Trust (IRT) to join S&P MidCap 400; Alpha and Omega Semiconductor (AOSL) and Dynavax Technologies (DVAX) to join S&P SmallCap 600.
    • New Relic (NEWR) announces retirement of CFO Mark Sachleben.
    • PFSweb (PFSW) Receives Nasdaq Notice on Late Filing of its Form 10-Q.
    • Pinnacle West (PNW) appoints Cooper as Andrew CFO,
    • SBUX CEO Howard Schultz buys $10 million in  stock. Schultz is the founder of the company and back in charge for a third time.
    • West Pharmaceutical Services (WST) appoints CFO Bernard J. Birkett to combined position of Chief Financial and Operations Officer.
  • Buyback Announcements:
    • Expensify (EXFY) Announces $50 million Share Repurchase Program.
    • Houlihan Lokey (HLI) Board of Directors replaced its prior stock repurchase program, which authorized repurchases from time to time up to $250 million in aggregate purchase price of the Company’s common stock, with a new stock repurchase program, which authorizes repurchases of an aggregate of up to $500 million of the Company’s common stock.
  • Stock Splits:  None of note.
  • Dividends Announcements:
    • Algonquin Power & Utilities (AQN) approves a 6% increase in its quarterly dividend
    • ESAB Corp. (ESAB) declares a quarterly cash dividend of $0.05/share of the Company’s common stock.
    • Houlihan Lokey (HLI) increased its quarterly dividend 23% to $0.53 per share.
    • Penske Auto (PAG) increases cash dividend $0.03 to $0.50 per share.
    • Union Pacific Corporation (UNP) Announces 10% Dividend Increase for Second Quarter 2022. (MarketWatch)

What’s Happening This Morning: Futures value reflects the change with fair value.

S&P 500 +53, Dow Jones +292, NASDAQ +238, and Russell 2000 +21.  Europe  and Asian lower.  VIX Futures are at 32.58 from 31.59 Wednesday morning and the VIX closed at 32.56 from 33.92 on Friday. Gold lower, Silver higher and Copper lower. WTI Crude Oil and Brent Oil Futures higher with Natural Gas higher. $ is lower vs Euro, higher vs Pound and higher vs Yen. US 10 year Treasury sees yields at 2.908% from 2.835%  yesterday. Bitcoin is at $30,405 from $28,426 Thursday morning and is higher by 6.67% this morning. As of 8:06 a.m. EDT.

Sector Action – 05/12/22 Close:  

  • Daily Positive Sectors: Healthcare, Consumer Cyclical, Real Estate, Communication Services of note.
  • Daily Negative Sectors: Basic Materials, Utilities, Financial, Energy of note.
  • One Month Winners: Energy of note.
  • Three Month Winners: Energy, Utilities and Basic Materials of note.
  • Six Month Winners: Energy, Basic Materials, Utilities of note.
  • Twelve Month Winners: Energy, Utilities, and Consumer Defensive of note.
  • Year to Date Winners: Energy of note.

Sixth consecutive loss for the Dow Jones after dropping 0.33%.  Nasdaq did end up in the green, but only slightly with a 0.06% gain.  Russell 2000 was up 1.24%.  Updated 05/12/22 close.

 

Upcoming Earnings Of Note: (sorted by market cap, highest to lowest with most visible names)

  • Friday After the Close: None of note.
  • Monday Before the Open: MNDY, TSE,M YOU, WRBY, CGEN of note.

Earnings of Note This Morning:

  • Beats: None of note.
  • Flat: None of note.
  • Misses: HNST (0.01).
  • Still to Report: None of note.

Guidance:

  • Positive Guidance: DUOL, HRT, PAYO, PX, TOST, CDRE  of note.
  • Negative Guidance: LZ, VTEX, POSH, FIGS, NEWR, COMP, MSI, NVTS, BRLT, TBLA of note.

Erlanger Research Advance/Decline Chart: Updated through 05/12/22 close.

Gap Ups & Down In Early Pre-Market:

  • Gap Up: AFRM +25%, HOOD +21%, DUOL +17%, INDI +13%, PAYO +12%, EDR +12%, DVAX +12%, COIN +11%, HRT +11%, DWAC +10%, AOSL +9%, TOST +6%, CORZ +6%, CHPT +6%, VZIO +5%, RYAN +5%, AVTR +5%, TSLA +5%, AQN +4%, OI +4%, HMC +4%.
  • Gap Down: FIGS -26%, TWTR -18%, NEWR -8%, ENFN -6%, SKYH -5%, VCYT -5%.

Insider Action: FLR, TRNO, AHCO, RAPT, UNVR, PH, VST sees Insider buying with dumb short selling.  No stock sees Insider buying with smart short sellers. 05/12/22 close.

Rags & Mags: Repeated stories from prior days never listed, i.e. “rehashed news”. Sorted by Global, U.S. and stock specific.

  • Stocks Making The Biggest Moves: TWTR AFRM HOOD TOST MSTR (CNBC)
  • Five Things You Need to Know to Start Your Day. (Bloomberg)
  • Russian Rouble hits five year higher against the Euro. (Reuters)
  • Russia withdraws forces from Kharkiv and may redirect to southeast Ukraine. (NYT)
  • Turkey does not favor Sweden and Finland joining NATO. (Bloomberg)
  • U.S. Bond see biggest outflows in four weeks on rally. (Reuters)
  • White House and FDA questioned over missteps in Baby Formula market. (Bloomberg)
  • World’s largest stablecoin regains dollar peg after $3 billion in withdrawals. (CNBC)
  • Samsung (SSNLF) looking to increase chip prices by 20%. (Bloomberg)
  • Robinhood Snacks looks at the “lawless market” in crypto. Baby formula supply influenced by U.S. trade policies.

Moving Average Update:

  • Score sixth day in a row at 0%.  Updated 05/12/22 close.

Geopolitical: 

  • President’s Public Schedule:
    • The President receives the President’s Daily Brief, 9:30 a.m. EDT
    • The President welcomes His Majesty King Abdullah II of Jordan and His Royal Highness Crown Prince Hussein to the White House; this visit reinforces the close friendship and enduring partnership between the United States and Jordan, 10:45 a.m. EDT
    • Press Briefing by Press Secretary Jen Psaki, 1:00 p.m. EDT
    • The President joins a meeting with local elected officials, chiefs of police, and a community violence intervention expert from cities across America that have benefited from using American Rescue Plan funding to increase spending on community policing and public safety programs. 2:30 p.m. EDT
    • The President delivers remarks highlighting state and local leaders who are investing American Rescue Plan funding to make our communities safer, 3:00 p.m. EDT
    • The President participates in the U.S.-ASEAN Special Summit to commemorate 45 years of U.S.-ASEAN relations and strengthen ASEAN’s central role in delivering sustainable solutions to the region’s most pressing challenges, 3:30 p.m. EDT
    • The President departs the White House en route New Castle, Delaware, 6:00 p.m. EDT
    • The President arrives in New Castle, Delaware, 6:55 p.m. EDT

Economic

  • Import and Export Prices 8:30 a.m. EDT
  • May University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment (Prelim) is due out at 10:00 a.m. EDT and is expected to fall to 63.5 from 65.20.
  • Baker Hughes Rig Count 1:00 p.m. EDT

Federal Reserve Speakers:

  • Federal Reserve Minneapolis President Neel Kashkari 11:00 a.m. EDT
  • Federal Reserve Cleveland President Loretta Mester 12:00 p.m. EDT

M&A Activity:

  • None of note.

Meeting & Conferences of Note:

  • Sellside Conferences:
    • Canaccord Genuity Global Metals & Mining Conference 2022. (05/15/22-05/17/22)
    • JP Morgan Investor Dinner (05/15/22)
      • Previously Announced  Conferences:
        • Credit Suisse Renewables and Utilities Conference 2022
        • UBS APAC Sustainable Finance Conference
        • Wolfe Research Consumer Conference 2022 (05/12/22-05/13/22)
        • Goldman Sachs Fixed Income Investor Conference Call 2022
        • Goldman Sachs Virtual 7th Annual Credit and Leveraged Finance Conference 2022 (05/11/22-05/13/22)
        • UBS Pan Euro Small & Mid cap conference 2022 (05/10/22-05/13/22)
        • Wolfe Research Virtual Broker Conference 2022 (05/10/22-05/13/22)
        • Bank of America HealthCare Conference (05/09/22-05/13/22)
        • HSBC 9th Annual China Conference 2022 (05/10/22-05/20/22)
  • Company Meetings: APA, ARCH, ICE, PGR, WY.
  • Fireside Chat: DV (w/ Canaccord Genuity).
  • Investor/Analyst Day/Calls: PRCT, VRNX.
  • Update: None of note.
  • R&D Day: None of note.
  • Company Event: None of note.
  • Industry Meetings:
    • American Thoracic Society (ATS) International Conference 2022 (05/13/22-05/18/22)
    • Australian and New Zealand Society of Nuclear Medicine ANZSNM Annual Scientific Meeting 2022 (05/13/22-05/15/22)
    • American Urology Association Annual Meeting (AUA) 2022 (05/13/22-05/16/22)
    • ABGSC Life Science Summit (05/15/22-05/19/22)
    • Energy Infrastructure Council (EIC) Investor Conference 2022 (05/15/22-05/18/22)
      • Previously Posted and Ongoing Conferences:
        • Biomed Israel 2022 Conference
        • International Society for Autism Research Annual Meeting
        • Retina World Congress (05/12/22-05/15/22)

Top Tier Sell-side Upgrades & Downgrades:

The recommendations listed below in this “Upgrade/Downgrade” section are compiled from what we believe are Tier I, II and III firms. Recommendations posted are taken from a variety of sources each day and we only post upgrades or significant initiations as well as downgrades to underweight or sell. The purpose of this posting it to make the reader aware of market moving recommendations. None of these recommendations should be interpreted as actual recommendations from CAPIS or its employees.

Today’s Upgrades and Downgrades:

Previous Day’s Upgrades and Downgrades:

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