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10.06.2022 11 new Morning Note posts under Morning Note (10) and CAPIS Insights (1)

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"CAPIS Morning Note – 07/21/22: Stocks Fading Into Open As ECB Announcement & Presser Front And Center"

posted by CAPIS on 07/21/2022 at 8:13 am

by CAPIS

07/21/2022 at 8:13 am

Overnight Summary: The S&P 500 closed Wednesday at 3959.90 (higher by 0.59%) from 3936.69 (higher by 2.76%) on Tuesday.  Futures are trading mixed to lower in the premarket session. The overnight high of 3975 was hit at 1:55 a.m. EDT. The low was hit at 3945 at 9:30 p.m. EDT, a range of 30 points high to low which is below the range of late with 45 the average range. At 7:25 a.m. EDT the current price is 3956 which is -0.16% and -6.25 points. 

Breaking News: ECB will be out with its first rate increase in 11 years. (Bloomberg)

Earnings Out After The Close:

  • Beats: STLD +0.59, TSLA +0.46, RLI +0.42, VMI +0.36, DFS +0.19, AA +0.18, SLG +0.17, CCK +0.07, EFX +0.07, KNX +0.06, CVBF +0.04, CSX +0.03, CNS +0.02, FR +0.02, FNB +0.01, KMI +0.01, REXR +0.01.
  • Flat: None of note.
  • Misses: UAL -0.45, LSTR -0.22, WTFC -0.21, CCI -0.11, LVS -0.05, PACW -0.04, UMPQ -0.04, XM -0.04, SEIC -0.02.

Capital Raises:

  • IPOs Priced or News: None of note.
  • New SPACs launched/News:
    • ZyVersa Therapeutics to Become a Publicly Traded Biopharma Company via Merger with Larkspur Health Acquisition Corp (LSPR).
  • Secondaries Priced:
    • CCL: Prices offering of 102,139,621 shares of common stock at $9.95 per share.
    • VERV: Priced upsized underwritten public offering of 8,333,334 shares of common stock at $27.00 per share for total gross proceeds of ~$225.0 mln
  • Notes Priced of note: None of note.
  • Common Stock filings/Notes:
    • CCL: Offering of Common Stock.. $1,000,000,000 of shares of common stock.. GS Bookmanager
    • VERV: Offering of $200.0 million of shares — JPM, Jefferies, Guggenheim and Blair Bookmanager
  • Pricing of Over-Allotment/Notes: None of note.
  • Direct Offering: None of note.
  • Selling Shareholders of note: None of note.
  • Private Placement of Public Entity (PIPE): None of note.
  • Mixed Shelf Offerings: None of note.
  • Convertible Offering & Notes Filed:
    • AZO: Filed Form 424B2.. $750,000,000 4.750% Senior Notes due 2032.
    • HLBZ: Filed Form 424B8.. Up to 8,000,000 Shares of Class A Common Stock Issuable Upon Conversion of Convertible Notes.

Capital Raise Summary From The TradeXchange, bringing traders and investors real time news and Squawk Box, and other sources.

News After The Close:

  • After Hours: 
    • Trading Up: SMCI +24%AA +6%, RLI +5%, CSX +4%.
    • Trading Down: VERV -13%, CCL -9%, XM -8%, UAL -7%, ASMB -5%, ALL -5%.
  • News Since The Close:
    • Tesla (TSLA) reports better-than-expected quarterly profit, sells most of its bitcoin purchases. (MarketWatch)
    • Microsoft (MSFT) eases up on hiring as economic concerns hit more of the tech industry. (CNBC)
    • UAL CEO: “It’s nice to return to profitability – but we must confront three risks that could grow over the next 6-18 months: Industry-wide operational challenges that limit the system’s capacity, record fuel prices and the increasing possibility of a global recession” (Conf Call)
    • MORGAN STANLEY: “Over the past several weeks, the data points from our survey work and channel conversation began to show software demand starting to bend in the face of .. mounting macro headwinds. .. Bottom line, it’s going to be tough.” (Carl Q Tweet CNBC) MSFT CRM SHOP DDOG TWLO PANW
    • President Biden administration is probing China’s Huawei over the proximity of its equipment to military bases and missile silos. (Reuters)
    • Number of Americans hospitalized with COVID-19 reaches 42,894, the highest since February.
    • Cryptocurrency Exchange Blockchain. Com is Cutting 25% of Its Workforce, Equating to About 150 People.
  • Exchange/Listing/Company Reorg and Personnel News:
    • Acutus (AFIB) Medical Announces CEO Appointment.
    • Assembly Biosciences (ASMB) chief medical officer and CFO to step down.
    • CELU: On July 14, 2022, Andrew L. Pecora, M.D., F.A.C.P., President of Celularity Inc., or Celularity, notified the board of directors of his decision to resign as President effective as of August 31, 2022 — FORM 8K.
    • Doma (DOMA) Appoints Mike Smith as Chief Financial Officer.
    • Exicure, Inc. (XCUR) Regains Compliance with Nasdaq Minimum Bid Price Requirement.
    • Engine Gaming & Media, Inc. (GAME) Expands Depth of its Board of Directors with the Appointment of Industry Veteran, Gregory R. Raifman.
    • NTUS halted pending receipt of additional information requested by NASDAQ.
    • Olin (OLN) COO James A. Varilek to retire.
    • Roche Hldg (RHHBY) Board of Directors has appointed Thomas Schinecker as the new Roche CEO.
    • VG Halt – Additional Information Requested by NASDAQ.
  • Buyback Announcements or News:
    • Alcoa (AA) announces $500 million stock repurchase authorization.
  • Stock Splits or News: None of note.
  • Dividends Announcements or News: 
    • Bank of America (BAC) Increases Common Stock Dividend.
    • Community Bank (CBU) increases its quarterly dividend to $0.44 per share.
    • EQT Corp. (EQT) increases quarterly dividend to $0.15 per share.
    • Landstar System (LSTR) increases its dividend by 20%.
    • Richardson Electronics (RELL) Declares Quarterly Cash Dividend.
    • Stanley Black & Decker (SWK) increases quarterly dividend to $0.80 per share from $0.79.

What’s Happening This Morning: Futures value reflects the change with fair value.

S&P 500 -8, Dow Jones -107, NASDAQ +4, and Russell 2000 -7. Europe lower ex France and Asia lower ex Japan.  VIX Futures are at 26.30 from 27  yesterday morning and the VIX closed at 23.88 from 24.50 yesterday. Gold, Silver and Copper lower. WTI Crude Oil  and Brent Oil Futures lower and Natural Gas lower. $ is lower vs Euro, higher vs Pound and higher vs Yen. US 10 year Treasury sees yields at 3.045% from 2.963% from yesterday morning. Bitcoin is at $22,903 from $23,670 yesterday morning and is lower by -3.24% this morning. As of 8:08 a.m. EDT.

Sector Action – 07/20/22 Close (1/3/6/12/YTD Updated Weekly with Monday release):  

  • Daily Positive Sectors: Technology, Communication Services, Consumer Cyclical of note.
  • Daily Negative Sectors: Utilities, Healthcare, Consumer Defensive, Real Estate of note.
  • One Month Winners: Healthcare, Consumer Defensive, Utilities  of note.
  • Three Month Winners: none of note.
  • Six Month Winners: Energy of note.
  • Twelve Month Winners: Energy and Utilities of note.
  • Year to Date Winners: Energy of note.

All three indexes were up today and trading at levels not seen since June.  Tech stocks did the heavy lifting today with the NASDAQ gaining 1.58%.  UNG finished the day up 7.42%.  Updated 07/20/22 close.

Upcoming Earnings Of Note: (sorted by market cap, highest to lowest with most visible names)

  • Thursday After the Close: ISRG, COF, PPG, SIVB, SNAP, WRB, STX, RHI, MAT, WAL, THC, FFIN, GBCI, OZK, UFPI, SAM, ASB, VICR, HTH, FFBC, BJRI, of note.
  • Friday Before the Open: VZ, NEE, AXP, HCA, SLB, ROP, RF, CLF, GNTX, ALV, UBSI, SXT, FHB, FBP of note.

Earnings of Note This Morning:

  • Beats: TRV +0.60, DHR +0.42, SNA +0.32, AN +0.26, ALK +0.24, PM +0.23, POOL +0.23, DOW +0.17, DHI +0.15, TPH +0.12, WNS +0.12, SON +0.11, DGX +0.10, UNP +0.09, AUB +0.08, DOV +0.07, SNV +0.07, IQV +0.06, SASR +0.04, BX +0.04, MMC +0.03, BANC +0.02, KEY +0.02, AAL +0.02, NOK +0.02, HBAN +0.02, PPBI +0.01, CBSH +0.01, TSCO +0.01.
  • Flat: IPG +0.00.
  • Misses: WBS (0.25), ABB (0.21), HRI (0.15), SAP (0.12), TCBI (0.12), FITB (0.11), BKU (0.08), DPZ (0.08), T (0.07), AIR (0.01).
  • Still to Report: COLB , EWBC , FCX , GATX , HOMB , NUE , SFNC.

Guidance:

  • Positive Guidance: TRHC, LSTR, VMI, SMCI, ALK., SON, DGX, TSCO, PM of note.
  • Negative Guidance: CDLX, LAZY, XM, REXR, CCK, EFX, DHI, IQV, AAL of note.

Erlanger Research Advance/Decline Chart: Updated through 07/20/22 close.

Gap Ups & Down In Early Pre-Market:

  • Gap Up: SMCI +19%, NOK +6%, ASMB +5%, AA +5%, RLI +5%, CSX +5%, TSLA +4%.
  • Gap Down: VERV -16%, CCL -10%, UAL -6%, XM -4%, COIN -4%.

Insider Action: MEDP sees Insider buying with dumb short sellingTCDA sees Insider buying with smart short sellers. 07/20/22 close.

Rags & Mags: Repeated stories from prior days never listed, i.e. “rehashed news”. Sorted by Global, U.S. and stock specific.

  • Stocks Making The Biggest Moves: TSLA, DHR, AAL, TRV, DHI, T. (CNBC)
  • Five Things You Need to Know to Start Your Day (Bloomberg)
  • 5 things to know before the stock market opens Thursday. (CNBC)
  • Bloomberg Lead Story: Russia moves to annex occupied land by September. (Bloomberg)
  • Bloomberg Most Read Story: Ford to cut 8,000 jobs on the gas vehicle side to fund EV investment. (Bloomberg)
  • ECB about to do first rate hike in 11 years. (CNBC)
  • Italian Prime Minister Mario Draghi resigned. (WSJ)
  • Russia restarted gas shipments to Europe via the pipeline but at 40% of capacity. (BBC)
  • Microsoft (MSFT) is eliminating several job openings. (Bloomberg)
  • American Airlines (AAL) to return to profitability in Q3. (CNBC)
  • China fines Didi (DIDIY)  $1.2 billion for data breaches. (Bloomberg)
  • Semiconductor stockpiles are growing. (WSJ)
  • Robinhood Snacks looks at how brutal the housing market is becoming.

Moving Average Update:

  • Score remains exactly at 80%.  Updated 07/20/22 close.

Geopolitical: 

  • President’s Public Schedule:
    • The President receives the President’s Daily Brief, 9:30 a.m. EDT
    • The President departs the White House en route Wilkes-Barre, PA, 12:35 p.m. EDT
    • The President delivers remarks building on the Bipartisan Safer Communities Act to further reduce gun crime and save lives, 3:15 p.m. EDT
    • The President departs Wilkes-Barre, Pennsylvania en route Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, 4:30 p.m. EDT
    • The President participates in a fundraising reception for the Democratic National Committee, 6:40 p.m. EDT
    • The President departs Philadelphia, Pennsylvania en route New Castle, Delaware, 8:00 p.m. EDT

Economic

  • The European Central Bank (ECB) is out with latest announcement at 7:45 a.m. EDT and presser at 8:30 a.m. EDT
  • Initial Jobless Claims 8:30 a.m. EDT
  • Philly Fed Mfg Index 8:30 a.m. EDT
  • June Leading Economic Index are due out at 10:00 a.m. EDT and expected to report at -0.5% from -0.4%.
  • EIA Natural Gas Report 10:30 a.m. EDT

Federal Reserve / Treasury Speakers:

  • Fed Speakers are on a Blackout Period into the FOMC Meeting. Blackout Period from July 16-July 28.

M&A Activity:

  • Denny’s Corporation (DENN) Completes Acquisition of Keke’s Breakfast Café.
  • Equifax (EFX) announces that it has signed a definitive agreement to acquire LawLogix.

Meeting & Conferences of Note:

  • Sellside Conferences:
    • None of note.
      • Previously posted and ongoing conferences:
        • SVB Biopharma Private Company Connect 2022 (07/20/22-07/21/22)
        • Capital Link 2nd Annual Decarbonization in Shipping Forum 2022 (07/20/22-07/21/22)
        • Gordon Research Conference Mitochondria and Chloroplasts 2022 (07/17/22-07/22/22)
  • Company Meetings: HTH, SNDL
  • Fireside Chat: YAYO
  • Investor/Analyst Day/Calls: CRTD, DELL, ELYM, PRPH, SCS
  • Update:
    • Ford Motor Company (F) Electric Vehicle Plan Update Conference Call.
  • R&D Day: None of note.
  • Company Event: None of note.
  • Industry Meetings:
    • Cardiovascular Innovations 2022 (07/21/22-07/23/22)
    • San Diego Comic-Con International 2022 (07/21/22-07/24/22)
      • Previously posted and ongoing conferences:
        • SPIE Astronomical Telescopes + Instrumentation 2022 (07/19/22-07/21/22)
        • Next Generation Lipid-Based Nanoparticles Delivery Summit 2022 (07/19/22-07/21/22)
        • Pan Pacific Lymphoma Conference (07/18/22-07/22/22)

Top Tier Sell-side Upgrades & Downgrades:

The recommendations listed below in this “Upgrade/Downgrade” section are compiled from what we believe are Tier I, II and III firms. Recommendations posted are taken from a variety of sources each day and we only post upgrades or significant initiations as well as downgrades to underweight or sell. The purpose of this posting it to make the reader aware of market moving recommendations. None of these recommendations should be interpreted as actual recommendations from CAPIS or its employees.

Today’s Upgrades and Downgrades:

Previous Day’s Upgrades and Downgrades:

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