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09.30.2022 11 new Morning Note posts under Morning Note (10) and CAPIS Insights (1)

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"CAPIS Morning Note – 08/11/22: Futures Higher Into PPI Data. Deja Vu Wednesday Action?"

posted by CAPIS on 08/11/2022 at 8:13 am

by CAPIS

08/11/2022 at 8:13 am

Overnight Summary: The S&P 500 closed Wednesday at  4210.24 (higher by 2.14%)  from Tuesday at 4122.47 (lower by -0.42).  The overnight high of 4232.25 was hit at 2:55 a.m. EDT. The low was hit at 4207 at 6:15 p.m. EDT, a range of 25 points high to low which is below the range of late with 45 the average range. At 7:25 a.m. EDT the current price was 4223.25 which is 0.32% and +13.50 points. Currently, at 8:00 a.m. EDT the S&P 500 is now up +16. 

Breaking News: Cancer concerns against Zantac litigation impacting Haleon plc (spun off from GSK), Sanofi (SNY) and GSK. (Bloomberg)

Chart of Interest: The VIX moved below 20 yesterday for the first time since late March. As Phil Erlanger says, “A VIX below 20 is the Camelot phase of the market”.

Earnings Out After The Close:

  • Beats: STAA +0.19, ZIMV +0.16, DHT +0.12, DIS +0.10, AOSL +0.09, AVT +0.08, CPNG +0.06, ACVA +0.05, FNV +0.04, VZIO +0.04, MQ +0.03, STKL +0.03, MFC +0.02, MTTR +0.02.
  • Flat: ENS +0.00, COOK +0.00.
  • Misses: RRGB (0.59), APP (0.20), PAAS (0.17), BMBL (0.13), BROS (0.02), SONO (0.02), AKA (0.01), CACI (0.01).

Capital Raises:

  • IPOs Priced or News:
    • HMAC: Pricing of $60.0 Million Initial Public Offering — 6,000,000 units at a price of $10.00 per unit.
  • New SPACs launched/News: None of note.
  • Secondaries Priced:
    • Athenex, Inc. (ATNX) Announces Pricing of $30 Million Public Offering of Common Stock and Warrants.
    • Broadstone Net Lease (BNL) prices offering of 13.0 million shares of common stock at $21.35 per share — GS, BMO, JPM and Truist bookmanagers.
    • CinCor Pharma (CINC) Announces Pricing of Upsized Public Offering of Common Stock and Pre-Funded Warrants.
    • EVERTEC (EVTC) Announces Pricing of Secondary Offering of Common Stock.
    • LSB Industries (LXU) Announces Pricing of Secondary Offering of 13,500,000 Shares of Common Stock by Selling Stockholders with the Company Repurchasing 5,500,000 of the Shares.
    • SOVO: Pricing of Secondary Public Offering.. 8.5M shares @$14.
    • VRNA: Prices 12.4 million shares at $10.50 per share.
  • Notes Priced of note:
    • Allegiant Travel (ALGT) company prices upsized $550 million offering of senior secured notes.
    • KIM: Pricing of $650 Million Aggregate Principal Amount of 4.600% Notes due 2033.
  • Common Stock filings/Notes:
    • BTBT: Filed Form F-3.. 20,000,000 Ordinary Shares.
    • CERE: Proposed Public Offering of Common Stock $250.0 million of shares.. MS, GS, Jefferies and Evercore Bookmanager.
    • HOFV: Filed Form S-3.. 50,888,826 Shares of Common Stock
    • KIDS: Proposed Offering of Common Stock and Pre-Funded Warrants.. Piper and Stifel bookmanager.
    • MAIN: Commences $50 million common stock offering.
    • RANI: Proposed Public Offering of Class A Common Stock — BAC, Cantor and UBS Bookmanager.
  • Pricing of Over-Allotment/Notes: None of note.
  • Direct Offering: None of note.
  • Selling Shareholders of note: None of note.
  • Private Placement of Public Entity (PIPE): None of note.
  • Mixed Shelf Offerings:
    • EVGO: Filed Form S-3.. $750,000,000 Mixed Shelf — Up to 200,747,717 Shares of Class A Common Stock.
    • IMRX: Filed Form S-3.. $200,000,000 Mixed Shelf.
    • IINN: Filed Form F-3.. $50 Million Mixed Security Shelf.
    • TNYA: Files for $300 million mixed securities shelf offering.
    • ZEV: Filed Form S-3.. $250,000,000 Mixed Shelf.
  • Debt Filing: None of note.
  • Convertible Offering & Notes Filed:
    • CERE: Proposed Private Offering of Convertible Senior Notes.

Capital Raise Summary From The TradeXchange, bringing traders and investors real time news and Squawk Box, and other sources.

News After The Close:

  • After Hours: 
    • Trading Up: VCSA +31%, MTTR +14%, NOTV +12%, ENVX +11%, DIS +6%, AOSL +6%, VZIO +5%, ACHR +5%, CACI +5%, STKL +4%, NTRA +4%.
    • Trading Down: ANTX -38%, SONO -18%, RRGB -16%, BMBL -12%, APP -10%, MQ -9%, CERE -9%, ENS -5%, COOK -5%, AKA -4%, MAIN -4%.
  • News Since The Close:
    • Stocks making the biggest moves after hours:  DIS, SONO (CNBC)
    • Coinbase Global (COIN) being investigated over staking programs. (Bloomberg)
    • Disney (DIS) raises price on ad-free Disney+ 38% to $10.99 as part of new pricing structure for streaming services. (CNBC)
    • China’s Response To Pelosi Trip To Taiwan Has Led Biden Administration Officials To Rethink Potential Tariff Moves – RTRS Sources – Biden Has Not Made Final Decision On Tariff Issue.
    • Ralph Nader asks NHTSA to recall Tesla’s (TSLA) ‘dangerous and irresponsible’ FSD.
    • Gasoline prices in the United States dipped to just under the $4 mark for the first time in more than five months. This is good news for consumers who are struggling with high prices for many other essentials.
    • Assets Under Management:
      • Victory Capital (VCTR) $164.2 billion.
      • AllianceBernstein (AB) $689 billion from $647 in June.
      • Manning & Napier Advisors (MN) $19.3 billion vs. $18.5 billion.
  • Exchange/Listing/Company Reorg and Personnel News:
    • Axon (AXON) names Sonos CFO Brittany Bagley as its next CFO.
    • Cardinal Health (CAH) Announces Leadership Changes with CEO resignation.
    • DMC Global (BOOM) Announces Planned Retirement of CFO Michael Kuta.
    • Evelo Biosciences (EVLO) announces the succession plan for Simba Gill, Ph.D., to transition from his roles as Chief Executive Officer and President to the role of Chair of the Board of Directors.
    • Hyster-Yale (HY) announced that CFO Kenneth C. Schilling intends to retire year end.
    • Landec (LNDC) The Board has appointed James G. Hall as its new Chief Executive Officer and to serve as a director on the Board of Directors, effective today.
    • WeWork (WE) Announces New SoftBank Appointment to Its Board of Directors.
  • Buyback Announcements or News: None of note.
  • Stock Splits or News:  None of note.
  • Dividends Announcements or News: 
    • GeoPark (GPRK) increases quarterly cash dividend $0.045 to $0.127 per share.
    • Kite Realty (KRG) increases dividend by 5%.
    • NL Industries (NL) announces special dividend of $0.35 per shares.

What’s Happening This Morning: Futures value reflects the change with fair value.

S&P 500 +16,Dow Jones +154,NASDAQ +48,and Russell 2000 +9. Europe lower and Asia higher ex Japan.  VIX Futures are at 23.65 from 25.05 yesterday morning and the VIX closed at 19.74 from 21.77 yesterday. Gold and Silver lower with Copper higher. WTI Crude Oil  and Brent Oil Futures higher and Natural Gas higher. $ is lower vs Euro, higher vs Pound and lower vs Yen. US 10 year Treasury sees yields at 2.773% from 2.801% this morning. Bitcoin is at $24,548.77 from $23,076.48 and is higher by 3.94% this morning. As of 8:07 a.m. EDT.

Sector Action – 08/10/22 Close (1/3/6/12/YTD Updated Weekly with Monday release):  

  • Daily Positive Sectors: Technology, Consumer Cyclical, Communication Services, Basic Materials, Industrials, Financial, Real Estate of note.
  • Daily Negative Sectors: none of note.
  • One Month Winners:  Technology, Consumer Cyclical, Industrials, Energy, Basic Materials, Financials, Utilities, and Real Estate of note.
  • Three Month Winners: Consumer Cyclical, Technology, Industrials, and Real Estate of note.
  • Six Month Winners: Energy and Utilities of note.
  • Twelve Month Winners: Energy and Utilities of note.
  • Year to Date Winners: Energy and Utilities of note.

Big up day thanks to PPI, but under the surface some oddities occurring.  Volume was below average for NYSE but above for NASDAQ.  New lows outpaced new highs for NASDAQ but the opposite for NYSE.  Updated 08/10/22 close.

Upcoming Earnings Of Note: (sorted by market cap, highest to lowest with most visible names)

  • Thursday After the Close: ILMN, RIVN, WPM, AQN, TOST, FLO, VIAV, FORG, ATGE, LAW, SWIR, INDI, POSH, VTEX, NVTS, UP, LYLT of note.
  • Friday Before the Open: SPB, HNST of note.

Earnings of Note This Morning:

  • Beats: DDS +6.42, SGHC +0.50, AER +0.49, AIT +0.36, HLLY +0.17, BAM +0.15, EYE +0.14, DCBO +0.12, DTC +0.11, GOOS +0.06, WKME +0.04, PRMW +0.04, HIMX +0.02, NABL +0.02, UTZ +0.01, WRBY +0.01.
  • Flat: SLVM +0.00.
  • Misses: USFD (0.01), HBI (0.03), CLBT (0.03), KELYA (0.07), CYXT (0.08), CAH (0.13), SWIM (0.19), SIX (0.48), AZUL.
  • Still to Report: AZUL.

Guidance:

  • Positive Guidance: KRNT, MTTR, STKL, VCSA, PRMW, AIT of note.
  • Negative Guidance: WWW, LTH, PSFE, DIBS, ACVA, BMBL, AKA, SONO, APP, COOK, CACI, ENS, EYE, HIMX, GOOS, WRBY, WKME, SWIM, NABL, CLBT, HBI of note.

Erlanger Research Advance/Decline Chart: Updated through 08/10/22 close.

Gap Ups & Down In Early Pre-Market:

  • Gap Up: VCSA +22%, ENVX +21%, MTTR +14%, NOTV +12%, VZIO +11%, ACHR +8%, DIS +8%, CPNG +6%, AOSL +6%, GLNG +5%, STKL +3%.
  • Gap Down: ATNX -31%, SONO -20%, RRGB -18%, COOK -14%, CERE -9%, SIX -9%, APP -7%, BMBL -7%, AKA -6%, BNL -6%, MQ -5%, PAAS -5%, ENS -4%, MAIN -4%.

Insider Action: UNVR, AAT, CIVI, TSLX sees Insider buying with dumb short selling.  No stock sees Insider buying with smart short sellers. 08/02/22 close.

Rags & Mags: Repeated stories from prior days never listed, i.e. “rehashed news”. Sorted by Global, U.S. and stock specific.

  • Stocks Making The Biggest Moves: SIX GOOS WRBY UTZ DIS CAH  (CNBC)
  • Five Things to Know Before Market Opens (CNBC)
  • Five Things You Need to Know to Start Your Day (Bloomberg)
  • Bloomberg Lead Story: Futures higher as traders reassess the future actions of the Fed. (Bloomberg)
  • Bloomberg Most Read Story: Work from home is a trap for women. (Bloomberg)
  • Federal Reserve San Francisco President Mary Daly says too early to declare victory on inflation but would support lower rate hikes. (FT)
  • President Biden may leave tariffs unchanged after China’s action against Taiwan related to Pelosi visit. (Reuters)
  • DOJ looks at United Healthcare (UNH) acquisition of Change Healthcare (CHNG). (Bloomberg)
  • FTC may issue new rules today to expand online privacy. (WSJ)
  • Google (GOOGL) to introduce fiber internet in several western states. (Reuters)
  • Blackstone (BX) may purchase a majority stake in CoreTrust (HCA). (Bloomberg)
  • Robinhood Snacks looks at Walt Disney (DIS) and its Disney+ growth now ahead of Netflix (NFLX). Paris Hilton is a player in the metaverse with virtual Malibu mansion.

Moving Average Update:

  • Score is at 80%.  200 day MA is certainly in the cross hairs of all indexes! 200 day has now been warned! (Maybe?)  Updated 08/10/22 close.

Geopolitical: 

  • President’s Public Schedule:
    • Vacation in South Carolina.

Economic

  • July PPI is due out at 8:30 a.m. EDT and expected to come in at 0.30% from 1.10%.
  • Initial Jobless Claims 8:30 a.m. EDT 
  • EIA Natural Gas Report 10:30 a.m. EDT

Federal Reserve / Treasury Speakers:

  •  None of note.

M&A Activity:

  • J.P. Morgan (JPM) Completes Acquisition of Global Shares.
  • Wallbox (WBX) acquired COIL Inc, an U.S. EV charging installation service.

Meeting & Conferences of Note:

  • Sellside Conferences:
    • Canaccord Global l Growth Conference
    • Cowen Communications Infrastructure Summit
    • Goldman Sachs Power, Utilities, MLPs and Pipelines Conference 2022
    • Jefferies Financial Services Investor Relations
    • Morgan Stanley Technology, Media and Communications Corporate Access Day 2022
    • Susquehannas Industrials, Energy Airlines Conference 2022 (08/11/22-08/12/22)
    • UBS Genomics 2.0 and Medtech Innovations.
      • Previously posted and ongoing conferences:
        • Raymond James Aspen Energy Summit
  • Company Meetings: BEKE, EA.
  • Fireside Chat: None of note.
  • Investor/Analyst Day/Calls: IDXX, MYGN, SLGG
  • Update: None of note.
  • R&D Day: None of note.
  • Company Event: None of note.
  • Industry Meetings:
    • None of note.
      • Previously posted and ongoing conferences:
        • None of note.

Top Tier Sell-side Upgrades & Downgrades:

The recommendations listed below in this “Upgrade/Downgrade” section are compiled from what we believe are Tier I, II and III firms. Recommendations posted are taken from a variety of sources each day and we only post upgrades or significant initiations as well as downgrades to underweight or sell. The purpose of this posting it to make the reader aware of market moving recommendations. None of these recommendations should be interpreted as actual recommendations from CAPIS or its employees.

Today’s Upgrades and Downgrades:

Previous Day’s Upgrades and Downgrades:

DISCLAIMER

This communication is for informational purposes only and is solely intended for use by institutional investors. Use of this communication by others, including retail investors, is prohibited. No statement herein is to be construed as a recommendation to purchase or sell a security, or to provide investment advice. Certain products, including options and futures, may involve substantial risk and are not suitable for all investors. The information on this webpage is provided by an independent third party. While the information and opinions presented in this material have been obtained or derived from sources believed by Capital Institutional Services, Inc. (CAPIS) to be reliable, CAPIS makes no representations concerning its accuracy or completeness, and accepts no liability for loss arising from the use of this material.