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09.23.2022 11 new Morning Note posts under Morning Note (10) and CAPIS Insights (1)

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"CAPIS Morning Note – 08/25/22: Stocks Higher On Latest Chinese Stimulus Plan"

posted by CAPIS on 08/25/2022 at 8:12 am

by CAPIS

08/25/2022 at 8:12 am

Overnight Summary: The S&P 500 closed Wednesday at 4140.77 (higher by 0.29%) from Tuesday at 4128.73 (lower by -0.22%).  The overnight high of 4187.50 was hit at 2:50 a.m. EDT. The low was hit at 4141 at 4:00 .m. EDT, a range of 46 points high to low which is at the range of late with 45 the average range. At 7:25 a.m. EDT the current price was 4171 which is +0.68% and 28.25 points.  Currently, at 7:55 a.m. EDT the S&P 500 is now higher by +25.

  • Beats: SPLK +0.44, WSM +0.37, CRM +0.16, VSCO +0.14, NTAP +0.10, ADSK +0.08, ZUO +0.02, NVDA +0.01.
  • Flat: BOX.
  • Misses: SNOW (0.69), GES (0.02).

Capital Raises:

  • IPOs Priced or News: None of note.
  • New SPACs launched/News:
    • Bitcoin Depot, a Leading Bitcoin ATM Operator, to Become a Publicly-Traded Company Via Business Combination With GSR II Meteora Acquisition Corp (GSRM).
  • Secondaries Priced: None of note.
  • Notes Priced of note:
    • ZTO: Prices offering of convertible senior notes due 2027.
  • Common Stock filings/Notes:
    • MKSI: Filed Form S-3ASR..8,482,732 shares of common stock.
    • SKIN: Filed Form S-3.. Prospectus for 65,618 shares of class A common stock of the Beauty Health Company.
    • STIX: Filed Form S-1.. Primary offering of 18,499,984 ordinary shares secondary offering of 83,862,994 ordinary shares 7,000,000 Private warrants.
    • STRY: Filed Form S-1.. 33,000,000 shares of class A common stock.
  • Pricing of Over-Allotment/Notes: None of note.
  • Direct Offering: None of note.
  • Selling Shareholders of note:
    • CRGE Charge Enterprises files for 28,697,543 share common stock offering by selling shareholders.
    • WALD: Filed Form F-1.. Up to 29,533,282 Class A Ordinary Shares (for issuance) Up to 121,120,063 Class A Ordinary Shares by selling shareholders Up to 18,033,332 Warrants to Purchase Class A Ordinary Shares (for resale).
  • Private Placement of Public Entity (PIPE): None of note.
  • Mixed Shelf Offerings:
    • ABSI: Filed Form S-3.. $250,000,000 Mixed Shelf.
    • EHTH: Filed Form S-3.. $300 Million Mixed Shelf.
    • PDSB: Filed Form S-3.. $150,000,000 Mixed Shelf.
      RIDE: Filed Form S-3.. $500,000,000 Mixed Shelf.
  • Debt Filing/Notes:
    • FFIC: Closing of $65.0 Million of Fixed-to-Floating Rate Subordinated Notes.
    • NLSN: Nielsen Announces Commencement of Tender Offers and Consent Solicitations and Change of Control Offers for Senior Notes.
  • Convertible Offering & Notes Filed: None of note.

Capital Raise Summary From The TradeXchange, bringing traders and investors real time news and Squawk Box, and other sources.

News After The Close:

  • After Hours: 
    • Trading Up: SNOW +18%, ADSK +6%, AMWL +6%, NTAP +6%, ELY +4%, PDSB +4%, GDRX +4%.
    • Trading Down: SPLK -10%, VSCO -7%, CRM -7%, ZUO -5%, NVDA -5%.
  • News Since The Close:
    • Bed Bath & Beyond’s (BBBY) Challenges Linger After Loan Deal. (WSJ)
    • Amazon (AMZN) to Shut Down Amazon Care Health Unit. (WSJ)
    • Approximately 1 in 6 Americans Behind on Utility Bills. (Bloomberg)
    • GME: To invest in new recruitment and retention effort. (WSJ)
    • Texas Comptroller Glenn Hegar Announces List of Financial Companies that Boycott Energy Companies. (BLK, STT, CS, UBS) (Release)
    • California confirms that it will ban new gasoline powered car sales by 2035 (Release)
    • Federal Reserve Atlanta President Raphael Bostic:
      • Said the U.S. Central Bank still has some way to go on raising interest rates this year and cautioned it is too soon to say the inflation surge has peaked, although he noted there are some hopeful signs on that front.
      • Noted there are still key employment and inflation reports looming before the meeting, and that if data remains strong and inflation doesn’t clearly soften, “then it may make a case for, you know, another 75 basis point move.”
  • Exchange/Listing/Company Reorg and Personnel News:
    • Callaway Golf Company (ELY) Announces Plans for New Corporate Name: Topgolf Callaway Brands Corp.
    • Cisco (CSCO) Appoints Sarah Rae Murphy to its Board of Directors.
    • Dollar Tree, Inc. (DLTR) Names Jeffrey A. Davis as Chief Financial Officer.
    • eBay Inc. (EBAY) Announces Changes to its Board of Directors
    • Glatfelter Co (GLT) today announced that Mr. Thomas Fahnemann has been appointed to the role of President and Chief Executive Officer, effective immediately.
  • Buyback Announcements or News:
    • CRM Announces $10 Billion Buyback Plan.
    • DG: Board of Directors Increases Share Repurchase Program Authorization. (see Dividend)
    • Silvercorp Metals (SVM) announces a share repurchase program.
  • Stock Splits or News:
    • TSLA trading Split price.
  • Dividends Announcements or News:
    • DG: Board of Directors Declares Quarterly Cash Dividend of $0.55 per share. (see Buyback)

What’s Happening This Morning: Futures value reflects the change with fair value.

S&P 500 +25, Dow Jones +113, NASDAQ +94, and Russell 2000 +11  (as of 8:09 a.m. EDT). Europe higher and Asia higher.  VIX Futures are at 23.95 from 25.30 yesterday morning and the VIX closed at 22.82 from 24.11 yesterday. Gold, Silver and Copper higher. WTI Crude Oil  and Brent Oil Futures lower and Natural Gas higher. $ is lower vs Euro, lower vs Pound and lower vs Yen. US 10 year Treasury sees yields at 3.087% from 3.054% yesterday morning. Bitcoin is at $21,709 from $21,383 yesterday morning  and is lower by -0.22% this morning.

Sector Action – 08/24/22 Close (1/3/6/12/YTD Updated Weekly with Monday release):  

  • Daily Positive Sectors: Energy, Consumer Cyclical, Healthcare, Real Estate, Utilities, Industrials of note.
  • Daily Negative Sectors: none of note.
  • One Month Winners:  Technology, Consumer Cyclical, Industrials, Energy, Basic Materials, Financials, Utilities, and Real Estate of note.
  • Three Month Winners: Consumer Cyclical, Technology, and Industrials of note.
  • Six Month Winners: Energy and Utilities of note.
  • Twelve Month Winners: Energy and Utilities of note.
  • Year to Date Winners: Energy and Utilities of note.

Three day losing streak is snapped….by marginal gains.  A narrow range for stocks as the market waits for…….Fed Chair Powell on Friday (you getting sick of hearing that yet?!!!?!?).  USO was up 1.57%.  Updated 08/24/22 close.

Upcoming Earnings Of Note: (sorted by market cap, highest to lowest with most visible names)

  • Thursday After the Close: VMW, MRVL, WDAY, ULTA, AFRM, ESTC, GPS, DOMO, SUMO of note.
  • Friday Before the Open: JKS of note.

Earnings of Note This Morning:

  • Beats: LANC +0.55, TITN +0.40, MBUU +0.14, BURL +0.14, TD +0.05, DG +0.04, FRO +0.01.
  • Flat: COTY +0.00.
  • Misses: PTON (2.91), ANF (0.53), HIBB (0.30), CM (0.18), HAIN (0.10), DLTR (0.02).
  • Still to Report: None of note.

Guidance:

  • Positive Guidance: ADSK, SPLK, HIBB, DG, TITN, MBUU of note.
  • Negative Guidance: IART, CRM, ZUO, GES, NVDA, BURL, PTON, DLTR, ANF of note.

Erlanger Research Advance/Decline Chart: Updated through 08/24/22 close.

Gap Ups & Down In Early Pre-Market:

  • Gap Up: SNOW +17%, ADSK +8%, NTAP +6%, GDRX +5%, CM +5%, AMWL +4%, TDOC +4%, ZTO +4%.
  • Gap Down: SPLK -11%, VSCO -8%, CRM -6%, ZUO -5%.

Insider Action: AAT sees Insider buying with dumb short selling.  NKLA, TMCI sees Insider buying with smart short sellers. 08/24/22 close.

Rags & Mags: Repeated stories from prior days never listed, i.e. “rehashed news”. Sorted by Global, U.S. and stock specific.

  • Stocks making the biggest moves premarket: DLTR, PTON, CRM, ELY, DG, ANF, NVDA, ADSK, SNOW, TDOC, HIMS, AMWL, VSCO  (CNBC)
  • 5 Things To Know Before The Stock Market Opens. (CNBC)
  • Five Things You Need to Know to Start Your Day (Bloomberg)
  • Bloomberg Lead Story:  Futures Rise As China Adds More Stimulus. (Bloomberg)
  • Bloomberg Most Read Story: President Biden unveils student loan forgiveness plan. (Bloomberg)
  • Russia moves to annex land by September. (Bloomberg)
  • Economists believes that Student Loan forgiveness will trigger higher inflation. (FT)
  • U.S. and Iran getting closer to a nuclear deal. (WSJ)
  • Investment Manager Ron Baron interviewed on CNBC likes Tesla (TSLA), LuluLemon Athletica (LULU), FIGS (FIGS), Hyatt (H) and Red Rock Resorts (RRR). (CNBC)
  • Federal Reserve Kansas City President Esther George interviewed from Jackson Hole by CNBC Reporter Steve Leisman. (CNBC)
  • Morgan Stanley notes that Apple (AAPL) can hit a market cap of $3 trillion as services grow. (Bloomberg)
  • Apple (AAPL) sends invites for September 7th iPhone 14 launch event. (CNBC)
  • Honda (HMC) power plant in China remains closes over power issues. (Bloomberg)
  • Stellantis (STLA) sees French car plant suspended to Saturday amid chip supply issues. (Reuters)
  • Robinhood Snaps: Reviews the Biden student loan forgiveness plan. Peloton (PTON) to sell on Amazon (AMZN).

Moving Average Update:

  • (total repeat from yesterday!) Score remains at 20% as there is a pretty good gap to get down the the 50 day for all indexes.  Pain if we do.  Updated 08/24/22 close.

Geopolitical: 

  • President’s Public Schedule:
    • Press Briefing by Press Secretary Karine Jean-Pierre, 12:45 p.m. EDT
    • The President departs the White House en route Montgomery County, Maryland, 3:45 p.m. EDT
    • The President participates in a reception for the Democratic National Committee, 5:00 p.m. EDT
    • The President participates in a rally for the Democratic National Committee, 7:00 p.m. EDT
    • The President arrives at the White House, 8:25 p.m. EDT

Economic

  • Q2 GDP (second estimate) is due out at 8:30 a.m. EDT and expected to remain at -0.90%.
  • Initial Jobless Claims 8:30 a.m. EDT
  • EIA Natural Gas Report 10:30 a.m. EDT

Federal Reserve / Treasury Speakers:

  • Jackson Hole Economic Symposium (08/25/22-08/27/22).

M&A Activity:

  • Flexsteel Ind (FLXS) confirms receipt of unsolicited proposal from CSC Generation Holdings for $20.80 per share in cash.
  • MiX Telematics (MIXT) to acquire Trimble’s (TRMB) Field Service Management Business
  • Zuora (ZUO) to Acquire Zephr, Giving Companies the Power to Deliver Optimal Subscriber Experiences.

Meeting & Conferences of Note:

  • Sellside Conferences:
    • None of note.
      • Previously posted and ongoing conferences:
        • Citigroup REITS Forum
        • JPM Brazil Consumer & Healthcare Checkup
        • Needham 3rd Annual Virtual Semiconductor and SemiCap 1X1 Conference 2022 (08/23/22-08/25/22)
        • Piper MedTech and Diagnostics California Bus Tour
        • Rosenblatt 2nd Annual Technology Summit: The Age of AI Scaling Part 2 2022 (08/23/22-08/25/22)
        • Three Part Advisors, LLC Midwest IDEAS Investor Conference
        • Wolfe Research Late Summer Consumer Conference 2022 (08/24/22-08/25/22)
  • Company Meetings: CAAS, FLEX, RVAC
  • Fireside Chat:
    • Flotek Industries (FTK) Fireside Chat with Water Tower Research.
  • Investor/Analyst Day/Calls: None of note.
  • Update: None of note.
  • R&D Day: None of note.
  • Company Event:
    • Bluejay Diagnostics, Inc. (BJDX) to Host Key Opinion Leader Event.
  • Industry Meetings:
    • None of note.
      • Previously posted and ongoing conferences:
        • Cell Therapy Analytical Development Summit Europe 2022 (08/23/22-08/25/22)
        • 22nd International Meeting on Information Display (IMID) 2022 (08/23/22-08/26/22)
        • Cannabis Conference Presented by Cannabis Business Times 2022 (08/23/22-08/25/22)
        • The Energy Expo 2022 (08/24/22-08/25/22)
        • 66th Annual Wyoming Mining Association Convention 2022 (08/24/22-08/26/22)
        • International Congress of Endocrinology (ICE) 2022 (08/24/22-08/28/22)

Top Tier Sell-side Upgrades & Downgrades:

The recommendations listed below in this “Upgrade/Downgrade” section are compiled from what we believe are Tier I, II and III firms. Recommendations posted are taken from a variety of sources each day and we only post upgrades or significant initiations as well as downgrades to underweight or sell. The purpose of this posting it to make the reader aware of market moving recommendations. None of these recommendations should be interpreted as actual recommendations from CAPIS or its employees.

Today’s Upgrades and Downgrades:

Previous Day’s Upgrades and Downgrades:

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