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09.23.2022 11 new Morning Note posts under Morning Note (10) and CAPIS Insights (1)

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"CAPIS Morning Note – 09/08/22: Are You Ready For Some Football? NFL Kicks Off Tonight Bills vs Rams."

posted by CAPIS on 09/08/2022 at 8:14 am

by CAPIS

09/08/2022 at 8:14 am

Overnight Summary: The S&P 500 closed Wednesday at 3979.87 (higher by 1.83%) from Tuesday at 3908.19 (lower by -0.41%). The overnight high of 3996 was hit at 2:20 a.m. EDT. The low was hit at 3969.75 at 4:05 a.m. EDT, a range of 17 points high to low which is below the recent range of 45. At 7:25 a.m. EDT the current price was 3988 which is 0.20% and 8 points. Currently, at 8:00 a.m. EDT the S&P 500 is now flat.

Breaking News: Doctors concerned for the Queen’s health, placed under doctors’ supervision. (CNBC)

Earnings Out After The Close:

  • Beats: CASY +0.41, BASE +0.09, PHR +0.08, GME +0.07, ASAN +0.05, VRNT +0.03, CPRT +0.03, YEXT +0.02.
  • Flat: DSGX +0.00.
  • Misses: PLAY (0.48), AVAV (0.22), AEO (0.10), CURV (0.02).

Capital Raises:

  • IPOs Priced or News: None of note.
  • New SPACs launched/News: None of note.
  • Secondaries Priced:
    • AGNC: Pricing of Public Offering of Depositary Shares.. 6,000,000 depositary shares with a liquidation preference of $25.00 per share.
    • GDYN: Announces Pricing of Public Offering.
  • Notes Priced of note: None of note.
  • Common Stock filings/Notes:
    • AQST: Filed Form 424B5.. Up to $35,000,000.
    • CEMI: Filed Form S-1 .. Offer shares and warrants.
    • DNA: Filed Form S-1.. Prospectus for 3,178,887 Shares of Class A Common Stock.
    • GDYN: Filed Form 424B5.. $100,000,000 Common Stock.
    • METX: Filed Form F-1.. 22,899,047 Ordinary Shares Issuable upon Exercise of Pre-Funded Warrants and Investor Warrants.
  • Pricing of Over-Allotment/Notes: None of note.
  • Direct Offering: None of note.
  • Selling Shareholders of note:
    • DCTH: Filed Form S-3.. Up to 1,257,705 Shares of Common Stock Offered by the Selling Stockholders.
    • HPK: Filed Form S-3.. Up to 7,455,493 Shares of Common Stock by the Selling Stockholders.
    • VIEW: Filed Form S-1.. 164,303,297 Shares of Class A common stock 366,666 Warrants to Purchase Class A common stock by selling shareholders.
  • Private Placement of Public Entity (PIPE):
    • ASAN: $350 Million Private Placement.
    • BGXX Bright Green Announces Pricing of $10.0 Million Private Placement.
  • Mixed Shelf Offerings: None of note.
  • Debt Filing/Notes: None of note.
  • Convertible Offering & Notes Filed:
    • HLBZ: Filed Form S-1.. Up to 15,000,000 Shares of Class A Common Stock Issuable Upon Conversion of Convertible Notes.
    • W: Proposed Offering of $600 million Convertible Senior Notes.

Capital Raise Summary From The TradeXchange, bringing traders and investors real time news and Squawk Box, and other sources.

News After The Close:

  • After Hours: 
    • Trading Up: ASAN +17%, GME +11%, YEXT +5%, ARQT +5%.
    • Trading Down: AEO -14%, SKIL -12%, CURV -11%, GDYN -9%, W -7%, AVAV -5%, DSGX -4%.
  • News Since The Close:
    • Musk, Top Aide Ordered To Hand Over Phone Records To Twitter (TWTR). (Bloomberg)
    • Pfizer (PFE) awarded $4.85 billion U.S. Army modification contract.
    • Deutsche Bank Strategists See 25% Stock Slump If Recession Hits. (Bloomberg)
    • Goldman: “We are raising our Fed forecast to include a 75bp rate hike in Sept .. and a 50bp hike in Nov .. the data have on net come in roughly as expected .. But Fed officials have sounded hawkish recently .. We therefore now think the FOMC will delay its plan to slow down.”
    • U.S. Secretary Of State Blinken To Announce $2 billion In New Foreign Military Financing To Ukraine And 18 Other Countries At Risk Of Future Russian Aggression: Senior State Department Official.
    • USO: OPEC+ may need to cut another 1m b/d to steady market. (JPMorgan)
  • Exchange/Listing/Company Reorg and Personnel News:
    • Altice USA (ATUS) appoints Dennis Mathew to position of CEO.
    • Cardinal Health (CAH) Announces Pharmaceutical Segment Organizational Changes.
    • CareDx (CDNA) names Abhishek Jain as permanent CFO.
    • Health Catalyst (HCAT) Announces New Leadership Assignments in Support of Strategic Focus Areas.
    • Sun Communities (SUI) Announces COO Succession.
    • 22nd Century Group (XXII) Announces Management Updates and Departure of Chief Operating Officer.
    • Verint Systems (VRNT) CFO Douglas Robinson to step down.
  • Buyback Announcements or News:
    • OLO: Announces $100 Million Share Repurchase Program.
    • The ONE Group Hospitality Inc. (STKS) Announces $10 Million Share Repurchase Authorization.
    • SKIL: Board of Directors Authorizes up to $30 Million Share Repurchase.
  • Stock Splits or News: None of note.
  • Dividends Announcements or News:
    • AEOPausing quarterly cash dividend to provide additional financial flexibility.

What’s Happening This Morning: Futures value reflects the change with fair value.

S&P 500 -2, Dow Jones -0.28, NASDAQ -17, and Russell 2000  -2.7. (as of 8:06 a.m. EDT). Europe higher ex Germany and Asia lower ex Japan.  VIX Futures are at 24.99 from 26.90 yesterday morning and the VIX closed at 24.64 from 26.91 yesterday. Gold, Silver and Copper higher. WTI Crude Oil and Brent Oil Futures higher with Natural Gas lower. $ is lower vs Euro, lower vs Pound and lower vs Yen. US 10-year Treasury sees yields at 3.235% from 3.33% yesterday morning. Bitcoin is at $19,338 from $18,736 yesterday morning and is higher by 1.34% this morning.

Sector Action(1/3/6/12/YTD Updated Weekly with Monday release):  

  • Daily Positive Sectors: Consumer Cyclical, Utilities, Communication Services, Real Estate, Healthcare, Consumer Defensive, Basic Materials, Industrials, Technology, Financials of note.
  • Daily Negative Sectors: Energy of note.
  • One Month Winners:  Energy of note.
  • Three Month Winners:  none of note.
  • Six Month Winners: Energy and Utilities of note.
  • Twelve Month Winners: Energy and Utilities of note.
  • Year to Date Winners: Energy and Utilities of note.

Market bounced hard off of oversold conditions.  $RUT was up 2.21% along with NASDAQ +2.14%.  USO was down -5.32%.  New lows outpaced new highs though.

Upcoming Earnings Of Note: (sorted by market cap, highest to lowest with most visible names)

  • Thursday After the Close: ZS, DOCU, RH, RIZZ, SWBI, ZUMZ of note.
  • Friday Before the Open: KR, ABM of note.

Earnings of Note This Morning:

  • Beats: None of note.
  • Flat: None of note.
  • Misses: BILI (0.53), FCEL (0.02), LOVE (0.02).
  • Still to Report: None of note.

Guidance:

  • Positive Guidance: ASAN, BASE of note.
  • Negative Guidance: CURV, VRNT, SKIL, MKC, BILI of note.

Erlanger Research Advance/Decline Chart: 

Gap Ups & Down In Early Pre-Market:

  • Gap Up: ASAN +19%, BGXX +16%, GME +9%, INTA +9%, YEXT +7%.
  • Gap Down: AEO -15%, SKIL -13%, CURV -13%, GDYN -9%, W -8%, DBVT -8%, BILI -6%, DSGX -6%, MKC -6%, VCYT -5%, VRNT -5%, AVAV -4%, CASY -4%, PHR -4%.

Insider Action: CABO sees Insider buying with dumb short selling.  TCDA sees Insider buying with smart short sellers. 

Rags & Mags: Repeated stories from prior days never listed, i.e. “rehashed news”. Sorted by Global, U.S. and stock specific.

  • Stocks making the biggest moves premarket: GME AEOS ASNA DAVE FSLR ULCC MRNA (CNBC)
  • Five Things To Know Before Market Opens. (CNBC)
  • Five Things You Need to Know to Start Your Day (Bloomberg)
  • Bloomberg Lead Story: Fed Inflation battle to spur greater economic harm. (Bloomberg)
  • Bloomberg Most Read Story: Text alert saves California from power blackouts. (Bloomberg)
  • British Prime Minister Liz Truss lays out an Energy Cap plan for the next two years. (NYT)
  • Russin President Putin proposed to let Europe freeze this winter with a complete embargo. (CNBC)
  • Washington hits back at a desperate Putin overnight. (CNBC)
  • California Heat Wave to continue the next few days. (CNN)
  • Fed has more dirty work to do to calm inflation. (MarketWatch)
  • Amazon (AMZN) to slow hiring rate, reiterated as out last week. (WSJ)
  • Robinhood SnacksVolkswagen to take Porsche public in $85 billion spinoff. Misfit to buy Imperfect Foods.

Moving Average Update:

  • Short term 5 day moving averages turn green.  Score goes from 0% to 20%.

Geopolitical: 

  • President’s Public Schedule:
    • The President receives the President’s Daily Briefing, 9:00 a.m. EDT
    • Press Briefing by Press Secretary Karine Jean-Pierre, 12:30 p.m. EDT
    • The President delivers remarks highlighting the arrival of updated COVID-19 vaccines, 1:45 p.m. EDT
    • The President departs the White House en route National Harbor, Maryland, 6:30 p.m. EDT
    • The President participates in a reception for the Democratic National Committee, 7:00 p.m. EDT
    • The President arrives at the White House, 8:45 p.m. EDT

Economic

  • The European Central Bank is out with its latest rate announcement and is expected to raise by 75 basis points from 0%.        
  • Initial Jobless Claims 8:30 a.m. EDT
  • EIA Natural Gas Report 10:30 a.m. EDT
  • EIA petroleum Report 11:00 a.m. EDT
  • Consumer Credit 3:00 p.m. EDT

Federal Reserve / Treasury Speakers:

  • Federal Research Chair Jerome Powell 9:10 a.m. EDT 
  • Federal Reserve Chicago President Charles Evans 12:00 p.m. EDT 

M&A Activity:

  • Arcutis (ARQT) Announces Acquisition of Ducentis BioTherapeutics Ltd.
  • ManTech (MANT) Stockholders Approve Acquisition by Carlyle.
  • MasterCraft (MCFT) announced that its NauticStar business was acquired by a subsidiary of Iconic Marine Group.

Meeting & Conferences of Note:

  • Sellside Conferences:
    • Bank of America Securities Gaming & Lodging Conference 2022 (09/08/22-09/09/22)
    • Barrington Research 15th Annual Virtual Fall Investment Conference 2022
    • Citigroup GEMS Conference
    • Citigroup Growth Conference (09/08/22-09/09/22)
    • Gabelli 28th Annual Aerospace & Defense Symposium 2022
    • Goldman Sachs Financial Technology Conference
    • Needham Virtual Crypto Conference 2022
    • Nasdaq-Morgan Stanley 2nd Virtual Investor Conference 2022
    • Piper Sandler Macro Conference
    • Raymond James Banking on Tech Conference 2022
    • Scotiabank Financials
    • Summit Vertical Research Partners Global Industrials Conference
    • UBS APAC Financials & Fintech Virtual Conference 2022 (09/08/22-09/09/22)
      •  Previously posted and ongoing conferences:
        • Barclays CEO Energy-Power Conference 2022 (09/06/22-09/08/22)
        • Barclays Global Consumer Staples Conference 2022 (09/06/22-09/08/22)
        • Bank of America Media, Communications and Entertainment Conference (09/07/22-09/08/22)
        • Benchmark Consumer, Media & Entertainment Conference (09/07/22-09/08/22)
        • Carnegie Small & Mid Cap Seminar 2022 (09/06/22-09/08/22)
        • Citi 17th Annual BioPharma Conference 2022 (09/07/22-09/08/22)
        • Credit Suisse 23rd Asian Technology Conference 2022 (09/05/22-09/08/22)
        • Deutsche Bank 12th Annual Aircraft Finance & Leasing Conference and Airline One on One Day 2022 (09/06/22-09/08/22)
        • Evercore ISI Technology, Media and Telecom Conference (09/07/22-09/08/22)
        • Goldman Sachs Global Retailing Conference (09/07/22-09/08/22)
        • Goldman Sachs Annual European Medtech and Healthcare Services Conference 2022 (09/07/22-09/08/22)
        • Goldman Sachs 10th Annual CEEMEA Financials Symposium (09/07/22-09/08/22)
        • Keefe, Bruyette & Woods A Stifel Co, Insurance Conference (09/07/22-09/08/22)
        • Raymond James U.S. Bank Conference (09/07/22-09/08/22)
        • Scotiabank Financials Summit (09/07/22-09/08/22)
        • Stifel Cross Sector Insight Conference 2022 (09/07/22-09/08/22)
        • UBS Business Services, Leisure and Transport Conference 2022 (09/06/22-09/08/22)
        • UBS Chemicals Conference (09/07/22-09/08/22)
        • Wolfe Research TMT Conference (09/07/22-09/08/22
        • Cowen Global Transportation & Sustainable Mobility Conference (09/07/22-09/09/22)
        • Credit Suisse LatAm Equities Conference (09/07/22-09/09/22)
        • Credit Suisse Global Steel and Mining Conference (09/07/22-09/09/22)
        • Citigroup Global Technology Conference (09/07/22-09/09/22)
        • Morgan Stanley Industrial CEO Conference (09/07/22-09/09/22)
        • Vertical Research Partners Global Industrials Conference (09/07/22-09/09/22)
        • Wells Fargo Leveraged Finance Conference (09/07/22-09/09/22)
        • Wells Fargo Healthcare Conference 2022 (09/06/22-09/09/22)
  • Company Meetings: TRVN
  • Fireside Chat:
    • Capstone Green Energy (CGRN) Water Tower Fireside Chat.
  • Investor/Analyst Day/Calls: ALNY, CCO, DHX, INDI, J, POWI, RHI, USX
  • Update: None of note.
  • R&D Day:
    • Moderna, Inc. (MRNA) R&D Day 2022
  • Company Event: None of note.
  • Industry Meetings:
    • European Society for Medical Oncology ESMO Meeting 2022 (09/08/22-09/13/22)
      • Previously posted and ongoing conferences:
        • 31st European Academy of Dermatology and Venerology (EADV) Congress 2022 (09/07/22-09/10/22)
        • 148th National Investment Banking Association (NIBA) Conference (09/07/22-09/08/22)
        • IWA World Water Congress & Exhibition 2022 (09/05/22-09/15/22)

Top Tier Sell-side Upgrades & Downgrades:

The recommendations listed below in this “Upgrade/Downgrade” section are compiled from what we believe are Tier I, II and III firms. Recommendations posted are taken from a variety of sources each day and we only post upgrades or significant initiations as well as downgrades to underweight or sell. The purpose of this posting it to make the reader aware of market moving recommendations. None of these recommendations should be interpreted as actual recommendations from CAPIS or its employees.

Today’s Upgrades and Downgrades:

Previous Day’s Upgrades and Downgrades:

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