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09.30.2022 11 new Morning Note posts under Morning Note (10) and CAPIS Insights (1)

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Morning Note

"CAPIS Morning Note – 09/19/22: The Selloff Continues, 10 Year Hits 3.50%. FOMC On Wednesday."

posted by CAPIS on 09/19/2022 at 8:14 am

by CAPIS

09/19/2022 at 8:14 am

Overnight Summary: The S&P 500 closed Friday at 3873.33 (lower by 0.73%) from Thursday at 3901.35 (lower by -1.13%). The overnight high of 3899.25 was hit at 8:45 p.m. EDT. The low was hit at 3846.25 at 6:20 a.m. EDT, a range of 43 points high to low which is near the recent range of 45. At 7:00 a.m. EDT the current price was 3857 which is -33 points, 0.85%. Currently, at 7:55 a.m. EDT the S&P 500 is now -38 .

Earnings Out After The Close:

  • Beats: None of note.
  • Flat: None of note.
  • Misses: None of note.

Capital Raises:

  • IPOs Priced or News: None of note.
  • New SPACs launched/News:
    • Aesther Healthcare Acquisition Corp (AEHA) Announces Filing of Preliminary Proxy Statement with SEC in Connection with its Proposed Business Combination with Ocean Biomedical, Inc.
    • Rumble Completes Business Combination with CF Acquisition Corp. VI (CFVI).
  • Secondaries Priced:
    • ALHC: prices offering of 9.0 million shares of common stock at $14.75 per share.
    • ALLK: 29,882,000 shares of its common stock at an offering price of $5.02 per share.
    • CSGP: Pricing of Common Stock Offering.. 10,656,436 shares @$70.38.
    • EWTX: Announces closing of its upsized offering of 13,372,093 shares at a price to the public of $10.32 per share.
  • Notes Priced of note: None of note.
  • Common Stock filings/Notes:
    • IDEX: Form 8K.. On September 15, 2022, the Company and YA amended and restated the terms of the Original SEPA and entered into an amended and restated standby equity purchase agreement dated September 14, 2022.
    • NRBO: Filed Form S-1.. Class A Units consisting of shares of common stock and warrants and Class B Units consisting of shares of Series B Convertible Preferred Stock and warrants.
    • PNT: Closing of Public Offering of 13,900,000 Shares of Common Stock.
    • VVPR: Filed Form F-1.. 4,230,770 Shares of Ordinary Stock.
  • Pricing of Over-Allotment/Notes: None of note.
  • Direct Offering: None of note.
  • Selling Shareholders of note:
    • APLD: Filed Form S-1.. 48,287,076 Shares of Common Stock by selling shareholders.
    • BEEM: Filed Form S-1.. 2,015,985 Shares of Common Stock by selling shareholder.
    • GSL: Filed Form F-3ASR.. Mixed Security Shelf.
    • ID: Filed Form S-3.. $100,000,000 Mixed Shelf.
    • TMC See Mixed shelf below.
  • Private Placement of Public Entity (PIPE): None of note.
  • Mixed Shelf Offerings:
    • EQT: Filed Form S-3ASR — Mixed Shelf Offering.
    • RCRT: Filed Form S-3..$100,000,000 Mixed Shelf.
    • TMC: Filed Form S-3.. $100 Million Mixed Shelf — 38,266,180 common shares offered by selling shareholders.
  • Debt Filing/Notes: None of note.
  • Convertible Offering & Notes Filed: None of note.

Capital Raise Summary From The TradeXchange, bringing traders and investors real time news and Squawk Box, and other sources.

News After The Close and Over the Week:

  • Weekly Wrap Up: Best and Worst performing large cap stocks:
    • Trading Up: AAOI 51.6%, BEAT 47.4%, AMTD 23.9%, QUOT 20.5%, AVYA 20.5%, SQQQ 18.2%, FRBK 12.2%, CLVS 10.9%, TBPH 10.3%, FOSL 9.4%, EHTH 9.2%, HLIT 8.1%, NTCT 7.6%, RCL 6.8%, ARGO 6.6%.
    • Trading Down: OMER -34.3%, NCR -28.2%, GSHD -26.0%, ARNC -25.2%, ADBE -24.4%, SPB -24.0%, RGS -23.9%, FDX -23.1%, LE -23.0%, NVTA -21.4%, ADAP -20.8%, AA -20.3%, CLF -20.2%, MGNX -20.2%, PRTY -20.1%, TUP -19.5%, RIG -18.9%.
  • News Items After the Close:
    • Credit Suisse (CS) Considers Rebranding Investment Bank First Boston. (BNN Bloomberg)
    • U.S. residents decreased their holdings of long-term foreign securities, with net sales of $27.2 billion.  Foreign residents decreased their holdings of long-term U.S. securities in July; net sales were $5.8 billion.  Net sales by private foreign investors were $11.9 billion, while net purchases by foreign official institutions were $6.1 billion.
    • Wix (WIX) stock rises after activist investor Starboard discloses 9% stake. (MarketWatch)
  • News Items Over the Weekend:
    • Stocks That Defined the Week: FDX DIS PTON RENT SBUX UNP GPS (WSJ)
    • The Week in Business: Rail Strike Averted.  (NYT)
    • Dollar’s Rise Spells Trouble for Global Economies. (WSJ)
    • Big Regional Banks Might Face New Rules for Dealing With a Crisis. (USB, TFC, PNC, JPM, BAC) (WSJ)
    • Goldman Cuts US Growth Forecast For 2023 After Rate Path Change. (Bloomberg)
    • Barron’s:
      • Positive View: NFLX, DIS, TTD, UHAL, KO, STZ, KDP.
      • Cautious View: HIW, VNO, OPI, MO, KMB, CLX.
      • Mixed View: None of note.
  • Exchange/Listing/Company Reorg and Personnel News:
    • Agios Pharma (AGIO) appoints Cecilia Jones as CFO.
    • AnPac Bio (ANPC) Appeals NASDAQ Delisting Notice; Hearing Granted and Scheduled for October 20, 2022.
    • Eversource Energy (ES) exec chairman Jim Judge to retire on Dec 31; CEO Joe Nolan will become chairman.
    • Gamida Cell (GMDA) appoints Abigail Jenkins as President and CEO.
    • GAMCO Investors (GBL) announced Friday voluntary NYSE delisting and SEC deregistration.
    • Predictive Oncology (POAI) Announces CEO Retirement.
    • Puyi (PUYI) announces change of chairman of the Board.
    • Taoping (TAOP) Receives Nasdaq Notification Regarding Minimum Bid Price Deficiency.
    • Trivago (TRVG) announces resignation of Peter Kern as chairman of the Company’s supervisory board.
  • Buyback Announcements or News:
    • CNH Industrial (CNHI) commences a first tranche of its $300 million share buyback program.
    • Kinross Gold (KGC) announces enhanced share buyback program.
    • Theravance Biopharma, Inc. (TBPH) Initiates $250 Million Capital Return Program.
  • Stock Splits or News: None of note.
  • Dividends Announcements or News:
    • Hersha Hospitality Trust (HT) reinstates quarterly cash dividend OF $0.05 per share.
    • IdaCorp (IDA) increases quarterly dividend by 5.3% to $0.79 per share, new yield is 2.9%.

What’s Happening This Morning: Futures value reflects the change with fair value.

S&P 500 -38, Dow Jones -280, NASDAQ -125, and Russell 2000 -21. (as of 8:09 a.m. EDT)Europe and Asia lower.  VIX Futures are at 27.88 from 27.83 Friday morning and the VIX closed at 26.30 from 26.27 Friday. Gold, Silver and Copper lower. WTI Crude Oil and Brent Oil Futures lower and Natural Gas lower as well. $ is higher vs Euro, higher vs Pound and higher vs Yen. US 10-year Treasury sees yields at 3.50% from 3.467% Friday morning. Bitcoin is at $18,774 from $19,799 Friday morning and is lower by -4.77% this morning.

Sector Action(1/3/6/12/YTD Updated Weekly with Monday release):  

  • Daily Positive Sectors: none of note.
  • Daily Negative Sectors: Energy, Industrials, Consumer Cyclical,  Basic Materials of note.
  • One Month WinnersEnergy, Utilities of note.
  • Three Month Winners:  Utilities, Consumer Cyclical, Industrials, Consumer Defensive of note.
  • Six Month Winners: Energy, Utilities and Consumer Defensive of note.
  • Twelve Month Winners: Energy and Utilities of note.
  • Year to Date Winners: Energy and Utilities of note.

Pretty contained action for a quadruple witching day.  SPX started below the support (green) value line for most of the day.

Click here for a video explanation of Erlanger Value Lines.

Upcoming Earnings Of Note: (sorted by market cap, highest to lowest with most visible names)

  • Monday After the Close: none of note.
  • Tuesday Before the Open: APOG of note.

Earnings of Note This Morning:

  • Beats: AZO +1.89.
  • Flat: None of note.
  • Misses: None of note.
  • Still to Report: None of note.

Guidance:

  • Positive Guidance: None of note.
  • Negative Guidance: None of note.

Erlanger Research Advance/Decline Chart: 

Gap Ups & Down In Early Pre-Market:

  • Gap Up: BLUE +15%, VXX +4%.
  • Gap Down: TMC -9%, EAF -7%.

Insider Action:  IBM sees Insider buying with dumb short selling.  No stock sees Insider buying with smart short sellers. 

Rags & Mags: Repeated stories from prior days never listed, i.e. “rehashed news”. Sorted by Global, U.S. and stock specific.

  • Stocks Making The Biggest Moves: AZO, TTWO, BLUE, WIX, COIN, FDX, NCR, ADBE, TBPH  (CNBC)
  • Five Things To Know Before Market Opens. (CNBC)
  • Stock selloff set to continue. (CNBC)
  • Five Things You Need to Know to Start Your Day (Bloomberg)
  • Bloomberg Lead Story: President Biden said would defend Taiwan from an attack by China. (Bloomberg)
  • Bloomberg Most Read Story: Turkey joins China’s SCO while a NAT member. (Bloomberg)
  • Global leaders gather for Queen Elizabeth II funeral, who is there and who is not. (CNBC)
  • Russian President Putin warns of escalation as China and India distance themselves from Russia. (NYT)
  • China ends lockdown of Chengdu. (Bloomberg)
  • UAE to increase oil production capacity. (Bloomberg)
  • President Biden interviewed by 60 Minutes and discussed a variety of topics. (CBS)
  • Warning signs of a recession rise ahead of Federal Reserve Meeting on Wednesday. (NYT)
  • Puerto Rico loses all power after Hurricane Fiona. (CNN)
  • U.S. Electricity and heating costs are expected to rise this winter as natural gas costs remain high. (WSJ)
  • Regulators are considering new rules for regional banks. (WSJ)
  • Bitcoin under $19,000. (Reuters)
  • Autozone (AZO) put up strong numbers. (MarketWatch)
  • A hacker released the latest edition of Grand Theft Auto from Take Two Software (TTWO), stock lower by -6%. (Reuters)

Moving Average Update:

  • Fourth day the score remains at 0%.

Geopolitical: 

  • President’s Public Schedule:
    • The President and The First Lady attend the State Funeral of Her Majesty Queen Elizabeth II, 5:00 a.m. EDT
    • The President and The First Lady pay respects to Her Majesty Queen Elizabeth II, 6:00 a.m. EDT
    • The President and The First Lady sign the Official Condolence Book for Her Majesty Queen Elizabeth II, 6:30 a.m. EDT
    • The President and The First Lady attend a Reception hosted by His Majesty King Charles III, 6:55 a.m. EDT
    • The President and The First Lady arrive Joint Base Andrews and the White House, 4:35 p.m. EDT

Economic

  • September NAHB Housing Market Index is due out at 10:00 a.m. EDT and is expected to fall to 48 from 49.

Federal Reserve / Treasury Speakers:

  • None of note.

M&A Activity:

  • American Water Works (AWK) acquires Warring Water Services, a privately owned water utility in California for $4.6 million.
  • BYND Cannasoft Enterprises Inc. (BCAN) Signs Agreement for the Acquisition of Israeli-Based Zigi Carmel Initiatives & Investments Ltd. In a Share Swap Agreement Valued at US $28 Million
  • Coeur (CDE) Announces Agreement to Sell Southern Nevada Holdings for Upfront Cash Consideration of $150 million.
  • Ecoark Holdings (ZEST) Announces Termination of Agreement With HUMBL to Sell Agora Digital Holdings, Inc. to HUMBL.
  • H&E Equipment Services Signs (HEES) Definitive Agreement To Acquire One Source Equipment Rental, Inc.
  • KnowBe4 (KNBE) received a non-binding proposal from Vista Equity Partners Management to acquire all of the outstanding shares at $24 per share.
  • Purple Innovation (PRPL) Confirms Receipt of Unsolicited, Non-Binding Proposal to Acquire the Company.

Meeting & Conferences of Note:

  • Sellside Conferences:
    • Baader Investment Small-Cap Conference 2022 (09/19/22-09/23/22)
    • BTIG Digital Assets Conference (09/19/22-09/20/22)
    • Cowen Novel Mechanisms in Neuropsychiatry Summit
    • Credit Suisse Securitized Products Forum
    • Deutsche Bank Leveraged Finance Conference (09/19/22-09/21/22)
    • Fierce Biotech Summit 2022 (09/19/22-09/20/22)
    • Janney Community Bank Forum 2022 (09/19/22-09/20/22)
    • JP Morgan RE+ Conference
    • Truist Securities Orlando/Miami Bus Tour
      • Previously posted and ongoing conferences:
        • Jefferies Tech Trek Israel 2022 (09/18/22-09/22/22)
  • Company Meetings: FDX
  • Fireside Chat: None of note.
  • Investor/Analyst Day/Calls: ESTC, OVV, RL, TRVI
  • Update: None of note.
  • R&D Day: None of note.
  • Company Event:
    • Nvidia (NVDA) GTC 2022  (09/19/22-09/22/22)
  • Industry Meetings:
    • European Association for the Study of Diabetes (EASD) Annual Meeting 2022 (09/19/22-09/23/22)
      • Previously posted and ongoing conferences:
        • 34th Transcatheter Cardiovascular Therapeutics (TCT) 2022 (09/16/22-09/19/22)
        • 40th Congress of the European Society of Cataract and Refractive Surgeons (ESCRS) 2022 (09/16/22-09/20/22)
        • The 2022 North American International Auto Show (NAIAS) (09/14/22-09/25/22)
        • 35th Annual Psych Congress 2022 (09/17/22-09/20/22)
        • Denver Gold Forum Americas 2022 (09/18/22-09/23/22)
        • European Conference on Optical Communication (ECOC) 2022 (09/18/22-09/22/22)
        • International HBV Meeting 2022 (09/18/22-09/22/22)
        • Intelligent Transportation Systems (ITS) World Congress 2022 (09/18/22-09/22/22)

Top Tier Sell-side Upgrades & Downgrades:

The recommendations listed below in this “Upgrade/Downgrade” section are compiled from what we believe are Tier I, II and III firms. Recommendations posted are taken from a variety of sources each day and we only post upgrades or significant initiations as well as downgrades to underweight or sell. The purpose of this posting it to make the reader aware of market moving recommendations. None of these recommendations should be interpreted as actual recommendations from CAPIS or its employees.

Today’s Upgrades and Downgrades:

Previous Day’s Upgrades and Downgrades:

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