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International Summary

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International Summary

"CAPIS Global Recap – 11/14/2017"

posted by Clayton Duff on 11/14/2017 at 6:13 am

by Clayton Duff

11/14/2017 at 6:13 am

Asian Headlines

Asian indices closed with a slight negative bias while the Nikkei outperformed posting a flat close to the session. China had several economic bits out to kick off the session with FDI a notable laggard.  On a sector basis, IT and Materials were up small in Japan with Utilities and Energy lagging. Consumer goods were to the upside in Hong Kong with Autos again better bid. With oil pulling back a bit, Energy names weighed in Australia.

Both the Shanghai and Shenzhen closed just off lows with many names lower on the lackluster economic releases. Retail sales showed a slight slowdown in October with Industrial Production readings on a YoY basis as expected for the most part.  Foreign Direct Investment for October though grew at 5.0%, well light of the 17.3% increase prior.  Casino names were flat on the day despite Credit Suisse noting the first week and a half in November saw a 20-22% uptick in revenue for Macau gaming vs the +15% expected.  In the auto space, China said they may consider allowing new permits for EV’s next year, just in time for Ford and Tesla to kick off endeavors there.  Also, Citi initiated coverage in the space with Great Wall -.8% named a sell with BYD -1.3% and Brilliance China +4.5% called buys.   Note home sales value fell over 3% in October which was the largest drop in over 2 years.  Also, power output growth eased to +2.5% in October from the prior +5.3%.

After the close, Hon Hai reported 3Q results that were sharply under estimates with gross margins at 5.83% well below the 7.49% expected.  Sales were inline.

Ahead of a slew of economic releases tonight, Japan finished flat with several banks to report earnings later along with many other firms.  E-commerce firm Rakuten fell 6% despite beating esimatess.  Investment gains spurred results but investors are concerned with their core e-commerce biz. Toshiba +4.7% ticked higher with word they may wrap up their dispute with Western Digital allowing for further production of chips together. Softbank -1.5% weighed as it erases much of October’s gains.  The firm said it may not invest in Uber if the terms are not satisfactory.

Down Under, chemical firm Incitec +4.8% rallied on FY results and plans for a stock buyback but CS lowered the name to Underperform post the close. Woodside Petroleum fell 3.2% today on massive volume on word RD Shell would sell their 8.5% stake in the firm.

MSCI announced changes to indices worldwide post the US close yesterday with changes to be made November 30th on the close. France and Germany are expected to see the most inflow with the UK losing.

European Headlines

Moves in Europe as subdued as well with little direction away from the flatline thus far.  The balance of sectors up vs. down is fairly even with Telcos leading while miners and energy names pull back.  Ecocomic readings are out with EZ results as expected while GDP in Germany was  to the upside. Inflation readings in the UK were a touch light.

And speaking of the UK, PM May will allow parliament to vote on the Brexit agreement and the implementation of it in an appeasement to the Labour party as well as pro-EU Tories.   The £ is unchanged on the session as it hovers precariously near recent resistance above a downsloping 400 dmvag.

The FTSE is a small outperformer with Telco giant Vodafone +4.7% upping their FY organic ebitda view to €14.75-14.95B vs the prior €14-14.5B. Service revenue was ratcheted a hair lower, to +1.3% from +1.4% despite customers spending more on pricier data plans.

Food retailers are to the upside with solid 12 week gains seen across the board.  Tesco +5.8% saw sales up 2.3%.  The firm also received the ok to acquire Booker +6% with the deal expected to close early next year.

Bovis Homes +1% is leading the sector after noting they should meet FY17 profit forecasts noting average selling prices are up.  Berkeley Group +1.3%, Crest Nicholson +.7%.

Event Survey Actual Prior Revised
AU 23) ANZ Roy Morgan Weekly Consumer Confidence Index 12-Nov 114.8 112.6
AU 24) NAB Business Conditions Oct 21 14
AU 25) NAB Business Confidence Oct 8 7 8
CH 26) Retail Sales YoY Oct 10.50% 10.00% 10.30%
CH 27) Retail Sales YTD YoY Oct 10.40% 10.30% 10.40%
CH 28) Fixed Assets Ex Rural YTD YoY Oct 7.30% 7.30% 7.50%
CH 29) Industrial Production YoY Oct 6.30% 6.20% 6.60%
CH 30) Industrial Production YTD YoY Oct 6.70% 6.70% 6.70%
CH 31) Foreign Direct Investment YoY CNY Oct 5.00% 17.30%
SW 32) Maklarstatistik Swedish Housing Price Data
NO 33) Consumer Confidence 4Q 17.3 16.2 15.7
IN 34) Wholesale Prices YoY Oct 3.01% 3.59% 2.60%
NO 35) GDP QoQ 3Q 0.70% 1.10%
NO 36) GDP Mainland QoQ 3Q 0.50% 0.60% 0.70% 0.60%
FI 37) CPI MoM Oct 0.00% 0.20%
FI 38) CPI YoY Oct 0.50% 0.80%
FI 39) GDP Indicator WDA (YoY) Sep 3.80% 2.70% 3.70%
GE 40) GDP SA QoQ 3Q P 0.60% 0.80% 0.60%
GE 41) GDP WDA YoY 3Q P 2.30% 2.80% 2.10% 2.30%
GE 42) GDP NSA YoY 3Q P 2.00% 2.30% 0.80% 1.00%
GE 43) CPI MoM Oct F 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
GE 44) CPI YoY Oct F 1.60% 1.60% 1.60%
GE 45) CPI EU Harmonized MoM Oct F -0.10% -0.10% -0.10%
GE 46) CPI EU Harmonized YoY Oct F 1.50% 1.50% 1.50%
SP 47) CPI Core MoM Oct 0.10% 0.60% 0.00%
SP 48) CPI Core YoY Oct 1.20% 0.90% 1.20%
SW 49) Valueguard Swedish Housing-Price Data
SP 50) CPI MoM Oct F 0.90% 0.90% 0.90%
SP 51) CPI YoY Oct F 1.60% 1.60% 1.60%
SP 52) CPI EU Harmonised MoM Oct F 0.60% 0.60% 0.60%
SP 53) CPI EU Harmonised YoY Oct F 1.70% 1.70% 1.70%
SZ 54) Producer & Import Prices MoM Oct 0.50% 0.50%
SZ 55) Producer & Import Prices YoY Oct 1.20% 0.80%
NE 56) Trade Balance Sep 6.3b 4.1b 4.0b
UK 57) U.K. Economic Forecasts: Bloomberg Monthly Survey (Table)
NE 58) GDP QoQ 3Q P 0.40% 0.40% 1.50%
SW 59) CPI MoM Oct 0.10% -0.10% 0.10%
NE 60) GDP Constant Price NSA YoY 3Q P 3.40% 3.00% 3.30%
SW 61) CPI YoY Oct 1.80% 1.70% 2.10%
SW 62) CPI CPIF MoM Oct 0.10% -0.10% 0.20%
SW 63) CPI CPIF YoY Oct 2.00% 1.80% 2.30%
SW 64) CPI Level Oct 323.86 323.38 323.62
IT 65) GDP WDA QoQ 3Q P 0.50% 0.50% 0.40% 0.30%
IT 66) GDP WDA YoY 3Q P 1.70% 1.80% 1.50%
SW 67) Swedish FSA Mortgage Margin Report
PO 68) GDP QoQ 3Q P 0.70% 0.50% 0.30%
PO 69) GDP YoY 3Q P 2.80% 2.50% 2.90%
UK 70) CPIH YoY Oct 2.90% 2.80% 2.80%
UK 71) CPI MoM Oct 0.20% 0.10% 0.30%
UK 72) CPI YoY Oct 3.10% 3.00% 3.00%
UK 73) CPI Core YoY Oct 2.80% 2.70% 2.70%
UK 74) Retail Price Index Oct 275.5 275.3 275.1
UK 75) RPI MoM Oct 0.20% 0.10% 0.10%
UK 76) RPI YoY Oct 4.10% 4.00% 3.90%
UK 77) RPI Ex Mort Int.Payments (YoY) Oct 4.20% 4.20% 4.10%
UK 78) PPI Input NSA MoM Oct 0.80% 1.00% 0.40% 0.20%
UK 79) PPI Input NSA YoY Oct 4.80% 4.60% 8.40% 8.10%
UK 80) PPI Output NSA MoM Oct 0.30% 0.20% 0.20%
UK 81) PPI Output NSA YoY Oct 2.90% 2.80% 3.30%
UK 82) PPI Output Core NSA MoM Oct 0.20% 0.10% 0.00% -0.10%
UK 83) PPI Output Core NSA YoY Oct 2.20% 2.10% 2.50%
UK 84) House Price Index YoY Sep 5.40% 5.00% 4.80%
EC 85) Industrial Production SA MoM Sep -0.60% -0.60% 1.40%
EC 86) Industrial Production WDA YoY Sep 3.20% 3.30% 3.80% 3.90%
CC 87) GDP NSA YoY 3Q P 3.80% 3.60%
CC 88) GDP QoQ 3Q P 0.90% 0.90%
GE 89) ZEW Survey Current Situation Nov 88 88.8 87
EC 90) ZEW Survey Expectations Nov 30.9 26.7
GE 91) ZEW Survey Expectations Nov 19.5 18.7 17.6
EC 92) GDP SA QoQ 3Q P 0.60% 0.60% 0.60%
EC 93) GDP SA YoY 3Q P 2.50% 2.50% 2.50%
IT 94) CPI EU Harmonized YoY Oct F 1.10% 1.10% 1.10%
IT 95) CPI FOI Index Ex Tobacco Oct 100.9 101.1
PO 96) Labour Costs YoY 3Q -1.10% 2.90% 3.10%
IN 97) Trade Balance Oct -$10500.0m -$14018.8m -$8984.3m
IN 98) Exports YoY Oct -1.10% 25.70%
IN 99) Imports YoY Oct 7.60% 18.10%
DE 100) GDP Indicator SA QoQ 3Q -0.30% 0.50%
IC 101) Unemployment Rate Oct 1.80%

About the Author

ClaytonDuffFVP,Senior International Trader

Clayton Duff joined the firm in 2008. He has worked in the industry since 1994 and held various trading and sales positions before CAPIS, including four years as a trader for First Southwest. He earned his bachelor’s degree from the University of Texas Arlington. Clayton maintains Series 3,...

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