12.17.2018 13 new International Summary posts under Morning Note (9) and International Summary (4)

International Summary

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International Summary

"CAPIS EU Close 11/14/2017"

posted by Matthew Kiselica on 11/14/2017 at 12:39 pm

by Matthew Kiselica

11/14/2017 at 12:39 pm

Europe closed in the red across the board but off lows helped by the U.S. recovery from deeper losses.  Also, there was most likely technical buying when the Euro Stoxx 600 found support at 383.  It is worth keeping an eye on that level.  If the current market trend persists, the 100 dmavg. is about to cross below the 200 dmavg. there.   (See chart below).

Breadth was fairly even but most sectors were lower.  Materials and energy declined by 1% due to falling underlying commodity prices.  Telcos gained 1% largely thanks to Vodafone +5.1% but a few other names within the sector also managed to gain.  IT and real estate recorded small advances.

Henkel -4.3% weighed upon consumer staples overpowering the U.K. grocer strength we noted this morning.  While it raised some metrics, its noted stagnant growth for its beauty division.

RWE’s -5.6% headline results were positive overall.  However, concerns regarding action the Green Party will take regarding coal power plants pummeled the stock.

Alstom +3.4% outperformed other capital goods peers following strong H1 results.  Train sales in the Mid-East were ahead of expectations and the company affirmed its medium term targets for organic growth and margins.  It sees the train division deal  with Siemens -1.0% concluding next year.

Intermediate Capital +8.3% saw 14.0% growth in AUM during the H1 accompanied with strong new money growth, fees and profits.

The IT gains were driven by results from United Internets +3.5% and Scout24’s +6.1% MSCI inclusion.

Altice -13.2% was the worst performer in the Euro Stoxx 600 following last weeks’ results and management shake up.  Morgan Stanley made negative comments regarding medium term prospects and the company saw its corporate yields sharply.

The names we covered this morning have last traded as follows: Tesco +6.2%, Booker +6.8%, Bovis Homes +2.7%, Berkeley Group +1.8% and Crest Nicholson +1.6%.

The € surged thanks to today’s macro data and the Greenback was weaker in general.  DXY is currently off c. 0.5%.  Commodities gave way especially crude.  The IEA noted several factors are curtailing demand growth.

On tonight’s agenda: Japan releases GDP and industrial production, S. Korea and the U.K. employment related data.  The U.S. CPI and retail sales tomorrow morning.  Full details and table below.  There were quite a few important results out after the respective local closes including Hon Hai, MUFG, and SMFG.  Results due include Tencent, Samsung Elec.,  Lanxess, and K+S.  On our side of the pond, we will see Cisco, Target and American Eagle.

Euro Stoxx 600 Chart

Market Levels and Macro Due


Event Survey Actual Prior Revised Relevance
SK Unemployment rate SA Oct 3.70% 3.70% 82.8571
AU Westpac Consumer Conf Index Nov 101.4 28.169
AU Westpac Consumer Conf SA MoM Nov 3.60% 83.0986
JN GDP SA QoQ 3Q P 0.40% 0.60% 96.8085
JN GDP Annualized SA QoQ 3Q P 1.50% 2.50% 94.6809
JN GDP Nominal SA QoQ 3Q P 0.60% 0.70% 55.3191
JN GDP Deflator YoY 3Q P 0.10% -0.40% 88.2979
JN GDP Private Consumption QoQ 3Q P -0.40% 0.80% 6.38298
JN GDP Business Spending QoQ 3Q P 0.30% 0.50% 12.766
AU Wage Price Index QoQ 3Q 0.70% 0.50% 52.1127
AU Wage Price Index YoY 3Q 2.20% 1.90% 38.0282
JN Tokyo Condominium Sales YoY Oct -13.00% 52.1277
JN Industrial Production MoM Sep F -1.10% 98.9362
JN Industrial Production YoY Sep F 2.50% 72.3404
JN Capacity Utilization MoM Sep 3.30% 69.2553
FR CPI EU Harmonized MoM Oct F 0.10% 0.10% 68.4211
FR CPI EU Harmonized YoY Oct F 1.20% 1.20% 76.3158
FR CPI MoM Oct F 0.10% 0.10% 73.6842
FR CPI YoY Oct F 1.10% 1.10% 97.3684
FR CPI Ex-Tobacco Index Oct 101.41 101.3 44.7368
UK Claimant Count Rate Oct 2.30% 81.1765
UK Jobless Claims Change Oct 1.7k 94.1176
UK Average Weekly Earnings 3M/YoY Sep 2.10% 2.20% 30.5882
UK Weekly Earnings ex Bonus 3M/YoY Sep 2.20% 2.10% 24.7059
UK ILO Unemployment Rate 3Mths Sep 4.30% 4.30% 89.4118
UK Employment Change 3M/3M Sep 52k 94k 11.7647
IT General Government Debt Sep 2279.2b 5.26316
EC Trade Balance SA Sep 21.0b 21.6b 31.8182
EC Trade Balance NSA Sep 16.1b 27.2727
US MBA Mortgage Applications 10-Nov 0.00% 92.3077
CA Teranet/National Bank HPI MoM Oct -0.80% 28.8889
US CPI MoM Oct 0.10% 0.50% 96.2121
CA Teranet/National Bank HPI YoY Oct 11.40% 26.6667
US CPI Ex Food and Energy MoM Oct 0.20% 0.10% 76.9697
CA Teranet/National Bank HP Index Oct 220.33 20
US CPI YoY Oct 2.00% 2.20% 69.697
US CPI Ex Food and Energy YoY Oct 1.70% 1.70% 56.0606
US CPI Core Index SA Oct 253.252 252.86 44.697
US CPI Index NSA Oct 246.633 246.819 39.3939
US Real Avg Weekly Earnings YoY Oct 0.60% 8.33333
US Real Avg Hourly Earning YoY Oct 0.70% 0.60% 2.27273
US Empire Manufacturing Nov 25.1 30.2 83.3333
US Retail Sales Advance MoM Oct 0.00% 1.60% 92.4242
US Retail Sales Ex Auto MoM Oct 0.20% 1.00% 64.697
US Retail Sales Ex Auto and Gas Oct 0.30% 0.50% 62.8788
US Retail Sales Control Group Oct 0.30% 0.40% 20.4545
CA Existing Home Sales MoM Oct 2.10% 17.7778
US Business Inventories Sep 0.00% 0.70% 42.4242
US Total Net TIC Flows Sep $125.0b 66.6667
US Net Long-term TIC Flows Sep $67.2b 75

About the Author

MatthewKiselicaFVP,Manager of International Trading

Matthew Kiselica joined CAPIS in 2010 and has over twenty-five years of industry experience. Prior to CAPIS, he was vice president of Cazenove’s global sales trading desk in New York. Matthew is a board member for the National Psoriasis Foundation. He earned his bachelor’s degrees in fina...

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