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11.15.2018 15 new posts under International Summary (13), CAPIS Headlines (1), Morning Note (1)

International Summary

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International Summary

"CAPIS TGIF Global Recap 1/12/2018"

posted by Matthew Kiselica on 01/12/2018 at 6:28 am

by Matthew Kiselica

01/12/2018 at 6:28 am

Asian Headlines

The region ticked higher but was mixed.  Hong Kong advanced for the 14th consecutive session and Korea also provided lift.  The ¥ continued to trade in the lower 111s and that prompted a modest tick down in Japan.  Mainland China vacillated following trade date.  India erased earlier gains due to concerns regarding a rift among top judiciary members.  Health care gained more than 0.5% followed by energy and financials.  Telcos fell by more than 0.5% with consumer staples and utilities off small.

  • China’s December Trade Surplus was above expectations due to imports which were well below consensus  The Customs Department stated the 2018 outlook is ‘upbeat’.  However, they indicated is will be tough sledding to maintain double digit growth.
  • H shares in Hong Kong traded very well.  Today’s closing level in the Hang Seng Index leaves it less than 1% from its historical closing high and 1.7% from its all time high.
  • CICC sees a strong outlook for the Hong Kong banking sector indicating conditions are favourable (not a typo) to improve net interest margins.  It named BoC +1.2% as its preferred pick while maintaining sells on Hang Seng Bk -0.7% and Bk of East Asia +0.15%.
  • Fast Retailing +6.0% helped limit the Nikkei declines.  The company’s Q1 figures beat and Uniqlo saw a robust surge in international sales.
  • China’s largest online movie ticketing service, Maoyan Weying, plans an IPO that could raise about $1b.  Tencent +3.0% is among the company’s investors.  CICC raised its price target on Tencent to HK$540, the highest among analysts.
  • Tata Consulting -0.5% following yesterday’s earnings posted after the local close.  After the close, Infosys posted NI that beat the range.

European Headlines

The  is once again trading well and has risen to 3 year highs.  Following yesterday’s surge on the ECB minutes, there has been positive news out of Germany.  Reports indicate German Chancellor Merkel has come to an agreement with the Social Democrats to form a coalition.  An official announcement is expected later today.

Equities have spent most of the session to the upside.  With the exception of consumer staples, all majors are green.  Consumer discretionary is ahead by more thasn 0.5% followed by telcos and real estate.

  • The auto sector is driving the gains among consumer discretionary names.   Auto parts maker GKN +29.0% has rejected a takeover approach from Melrose Ind. +5.0%.  The 402p bid a c. 21.0% premium to yesterday’s close.  GKN CEO Stevens has pledged the company will instead split its two main divisions: aerospace and autoparts.  Fiat Chrysler +3.56% has the pole position among the auto makers.  The company has announced a $1b investment in Michigan and bonuses to employees due to the U.S. tax changes.
  • Smith Group +4.3% has also made positive U.S. tax related announcements.  The company’s effective rate will decline and both Liberum and Morgan Stanley see substantial increases to FY ’19 EPS.
  • Vivendi’s %-2.7 FY sales and profits fell short of expectations.  FY sales rose shy of 5% while EBITDA growth was 20.0% to 25.0%.  Both of these fell short of the company’s own prognostications of greater than 5% and 25.0% (respectively) made during November.

Way South of the Border: Late yesterday, S&P cut Brazil’s long term rating further below investment grade to BB-.  It did set the outlook at stable.  Peru cut its benchmark lending rate 25 bps to 3%, as expected.

JP Morgan is trading up pre-market post results.  Wells Fargo is also due to report.

Have a good weekend.

Market Levels and Macro Data

Event Survey Actual Prior Revised
JN BoP Current Account Balance Nov ¥1836.1b ¥1347.3b ¥2176.4b
JN BoP Current Account Adjusted Nov ¥2168.9b ¥1700.5b ¥2441.5b
JN Trade Balance BoP Basis Nov ¥310.6b ¥181.0b ¥430.2b
JN Japan Buying Foreign Bonds 5-Jan ¥173.0b
JN Japan Buying Foreign Stocks 5-Jan ¥217.1b
JN Foreign Buying Japan Bonds 5-Jan -¥128.3b
JN Foreign Buying Japan Stocks 5-Jan ¥597.9b
JN Bank Lending Incl Trusts YoY Dec 2.50% 2.70%
JN Bank Lending Ex-Trusts YoY Dec 2.40% 2.70%
AU Credit Card Purchases Nov A$27.9b A$27.5b
AU Credit Card Balances Nov A$52.2b A$51.2b
JN Bloomberg Jan. Japan Economic Survey (Table)
CH Trade Balance Dec $37.00b $54.69b $40.21b $38.98b
CH Exports YoY Dec 10.80% 10.90% 12.30% 11.50%
CH Imports YoY Dec 15.10% 4.50% 17.70% 17.60%
CH Trade Balance CNY Dec 235.20b 361.98b 263.60b 255.44b
CH Exports YoY CNY Dec 6.70% 7.40% 10.30% 9.50%
CH Imports YoY CNY Dec 11.80% 0.90% 15.60% 15.40%
JN Eco Watchers Survey Current SA Dec 55.1 53.9 55.1 54.1
JN Eco Watchers Survey Outlook SA Dec 53.5 52.7 53.8 53.4
FR CPI EU Harmonized MoM Dec F 0.40% 0.40% 0.40%
FR CPI EU Harmonized YoY Dec F 1.30% 1.20% 1.30%
FR CPI MoM Dec F 0.30% 0.30% 0.30%
FR CPI YoY Dec F 1.20% 1.20% 1.20%
FR CPI Ex-Tobacco Index Dec 101.8 101.76 101.47
SP CPI MoM Dec F 0.10% 0.00% 0.10%
SP CPI YoY Dec F 1.20% 1.10% 1.20%
SP CPI EU Harmonised MoM Dec F 0.10% 0.00% 0.10%
SP CPI EU Harmonised YoY Dec F 1.30% 1.20% 1.30%
SP CPI Core MoM Dec 0.00% 0.40%
SP CPI Core YoY Dec 0.80% 0.80%
CH Aggregate Financing CNY Dec 1500.0b 1140.0b 1600.0b 1598.2b
CH New Yuan Loans CNY Dec 1000.0b 584.4b 1120.0b
CH Money Supply M2 YoY Dec 9.20% 8.20% 9.10%
CH Money Supply M1 YoY Dec 12.60% 11.80% 12.70%
CH Money Supply M0 YoY Dec 5.90% 3.40% 5.70%
IT Industrial Production MoM Nov 0.60% 0.00% 0.50% 0.60%
IT Industrial Production WDA YoY Nov 3.30% 2.20% 3.10% 3.00%
IT Industrial Production NSA YoY Nov 2.20% 6.40% 6.30%
IN CPI YoY Dec 5.10% 4.88%
IN Industrial Production YoY Nov 4.40% 2.20%
CA Teranet/National Bank HP Index Dec 217.1
CA Teranet/National Bank HPI MoM Dec -0.50%
CA Teranet/National Bank HPI YoY Dec 9.20%
US CPI MoM Dec 0.10% 0.40%
US CPI Ex Food and Energy MoM Dec 0.20% 0.10%
US CPI YoY Dec 2.10% 2.20%
US CPI Ex Food and Energy YoY Dec 1.70% 1.70%
US CPI Index NSA Dec 246.372 246.669
US CPI Core Index SA Dec 254.333 253.724
US Retail Sales Advance MoM Dec 0.50% 0.80%
US Retail Sales Ex Auto MoM Dec 0.30% 1.00%
US Retail Sales Ex Auto and Gas Dec 0.40% 0.80%
US Retail Sales Control Group Dec 0.40% 0.80%
US Real Avg Weekly Earnings YoY Dec 0.80%
US Real Avg Hourly Earning YoY Dec 0.20%
CA Bloomberg Jan. Canada Economic Survey
US Business Inventories Nov 0.40% -0.10%

 

About the Author

MatthewKiselicaFVP,Manager of International Trading

Matthew Kiselica joined CAPIS in 2010 and has over twenty-five years of industry experience. Prior to CAPIS, he was vice president of Cazenove’s global sales trading desk in New York. Matthew is a board member for the National Psoriasis Foundation. He earned his bachelor’s degrees in fina...

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