05.23.2019 15 new Morning Note posts under Morning Note (10) and International Summary (5)

International Summary

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International Summary

"CAPIS Global Recap – 9/19/2018"

posted by Clayton Duff on 09/19/2018 at 6:40 am

by Clayton Duff

09/19/2018 at 6:40 am

Asian Headlines

Another solid finish in Asia today with broad sector gains both in China and Japan.  The ¥ was steady with the BoJ leaving rates unchanged as their excess reserve rate was retained at -.1%. The pace of  JGB and ETF purchases were kept as-is as well. Post the Saudi comments yesterday Energy led on the session in Japan with Industrials and RE also post solid gains.  Consumer names led in Hong Kong with Health Care and Energy posting gains of 2.5% or more. In Shanghai Energy and RE were also at the top of the leaderboard with markets shaking off the tariffs imposed by China against the US.

South Korea underperformed despite the meeting with the North and a military agreement to pare tensions between the two.  President Trump said a trade deal with Korea has been met with the deal to be signed at the UN General meeting later this month.

Back to China Premier Li said the country will look to increase outside involvement in their economy at a quicker pace amid the row with the US.  Concerning exports he again said the yuan will not be devalued to up shipments.

  • Tencent +1.1% rose with Reuters reporting Tencent Music Entertainment is looking to IPO in the States in a bid to raise $2B.
  • Post the FY loss by Esprit after the close yesterday the stock fell 3% on the day with further disappointment on the unsurprising announcement of no divi.

European Headlines

European indices are trading near flattish levels today despite strength in Basic Resources, Chemicals, and Autos. EU27 New Car Registrations ticked up over 31% in August.   The Pound lurched higher after UK inflation rose .7% MoM vs the expected .5% uptick but gains were short-lived with PM May said to have rejected the EU’s revised Irish Border offer.  Additionally, both Retail Price and House Price Index readings saw a larger than expected increase as well.  PM May noted in a press story earlier an exit deal is “virtually agreed” adding there is no need for a second Brexit vote.

In individual names Adecco is off 4.8% after noting September volume trends lend to a slight deceleration in revenues. The firm had seen revenues up 2% both in July and August but softer markets are weighing.

Home improvement firm Kingfisher -3.3% disappointed with poor results in France.  1H profit there fell to £122M from £174M with logistics and stock inefficiencies cited.

As we highlighted yesterday TomTom -5.2% is again on the downslide with the newspaper Telegraaf reporting Google is no longer interested in the firm nor is a private equity firm.  Their CFO though stated the new relationship between Google and Renault in their space does have an effect on TomTom’s order intake but no immediate impact on revenues.

Event Survey Actual Prior Revised
JN 14) Trade Balance Aug -¥483.2b -¥444.6b -¥231.2b -¥231.9b
JN 15) Trade Balance Adjusted Aug -¥144.1b -¥190.4b -¥45.6b -¥102.3b
JN 16) Exports YoY Aug 5.20% 6.60% 3.90%
JN 17) Imports YoY Aug 14.50% 15.40% 14.60%
AU 18) Bloomberg Sept. Australia Economic Survey (Table)
AU 19) Westpac Leading Index MoM Aug 0.06% 0.01% 0.02%
AU 20) Skilled Vacancies MoM Aug 0.60% 0.20% 0.10%
JN 21) BOJ Policy Balance Rate 19-Sep -0.10% -0.10% -0.10%
JN 22) BOJ 10-Yr Yield Target 19-Sep 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
SZ 23) SECO September 2018 Economic Forecasts (Table)
FI 24) Current Account Balance Jul 0.05b -0.44b -0.18b
EC 25) EU27 New Car Registrations Aug 31.20% 10.50%
EC 26) ECB Current Account SA Jul 21.3b 23.5b 23.8b
IT 27) Current Account Balance Jul 8607m 5135m 5309m
GR 28) Current Account Balance Jul 1577m 210m
UK 29) CPIH YoY Aug 2.20% 2.40% 2.30%
UK 30) CPI MoM Aug 0.50% 0.70% 0.00%
UK 31) CPI YoY Aug 2.40% 2.70% 2.50%
UK 32) CPI Core YoY Aug 1.80% 2.10% 1.90%
UK 33) Retail Price Index Aug 283.4 284.2 281.7
UK 34) RPI MoM Aug 0.60% 0.90% 0.10%
UK 35) RPI YoY Aug 3.20% 3.50% 3.20%
UK 36) RPI Ex Mort Int.Payments (YoY) Aug 3.20% 3.40% 3.30%
UK 37) PPI Input NSA MoM Aug 0.50% 0.50% 0.50% 0.00%
UK 38) PPI Input NSA YoY Aug 9.10% 8.70% 10.90% 10.30%
UK 39) PPI Output NSA MoM Aug 0.20% 0.20% 0.00%
UK 40) PPI Output NSA YoY Aug 2.90% 2.90% 3.10%
UK 41) PPI Output Core NSA MoM Aug 0.20% 0.10% 0.00% 0.10%
UK 42) PPI Output Core NSA YoY Aug 2.10% 2.10% 2.20% 2.30%
UK 43) House Price Index YoY Jul 2.70% 3.10% 3.00% 3.20%
HK 44) Composite Interest Rate Aug 0.66% 0.63%
EC 45) Construction Output MoM Jul 0.30% 0.20% 0.70%
EC 46) Construction Output YoY Jul 2.60% 2.60% 3.00%
PO 47) PPI MoM Aug 0.20% 0.20%
PO 48) PPI YoY Aug 4.60% 4.40% 4.50%

About the Author

ClaytonDuffFVP,Senior International Trader

Clayton Duff joined the firm in 2008. He has worked in the industry since 1994 and held various trading and sales positions before CAPIS, including four years as a trader for First Southwest. He earned his bachelor’s degree from the University of Texas Arlington. Clayton maintains Series 3,...

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