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12.10.2018 19 new posts under International Summary (9), Morning Note (9), CAPIS Headlines (1)

International Summary

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International Summary

"CAPIS European Markets 11/15/2018"

posted by Matthew Kiselica on 11/15/2018 at 12:50 pm

by Matthew Kiselica

11/15/2018 at 12:50 pm

Markets Overview

Today was all about Brexit.  (You may have heard of it.)  PM Teresa May is now in the political fight of her life.  She spoke to Parliament for well over 3 hours.  Her Brexit minister resigned along with several other cabinet ministers.  To top it off,  Pro-Brexit leader Rees-Mogg is gathering parliament members for a no-confidence vote.  This link is a good recap of it all including the sticking points.  For its part, EU members are considering an upcoming meeting on Nov. 25th to prepare for a No Brexit scenario.  Stay tuned.

This kept the markets lower for most of the session.  Interestingly, the U.K. managed to end the day basically flat.  However, that was largely due to energy and miners.  The £ suffered heavy selling pressure.  The concern is not simply related to Brexit.  There are worries this could lead to the Labour (not a typo) party gaining control of Parliament.

Other than the two sectors we highlighted above, the rest ended the day lower.  The vast majority by at least 1%.  Losses of 2% or more were scene among travel/leisure, financials, retail and utilities.

The energy markets have crude higher by more than 1% as well as copper.   Natural gas is giving back most of yesterday’s surge.  U.S. stockpiles showed a build last week.

The names we highlighted this morning last traded as follows: Aston Martin Lagonda -6.6%, Bouygues -0.2%, Sixt +4.4%, Barclays -4.1%, Lloyds -5.0%, RBS -9.6% and the auto sector ended off 1.6%.

Other Snippets

  • Sources allege Credit Suisse -1.6% is mulling “hundreds” of job cuts to meet FY ’19 expense targets.
  • Following the results we highlighted earlier, Bouygues’ % Dep. CE Marian quelled speculation its telecom unit was up for sale.
  • Vivendi reported Q3 revenues of €3.38b.  That is a 5.6% y/y gain.  It highlighted it will use its final FY results due in February of ’19 to discuss that sale of Universal Music Group.  It made no mention regarding Telecom Italia or the recent sacking of its CEO.

On the Markets Agenda for Tonight

  • Brexit headlines will be front and center.
  • Walmart suppliers may see pressure with shares currently trading lower post results.
  • Apple suppliers could also respond to Morgan Stanley’s call in the name which is sending it higher.
  • Reaction to Vivendi’s sales and statements.
  • Macro due includes: Hong Kong’s GDP and EC CPI.

Markets and Macro

Markets Snapshot

Event Survey Actual Prior Revised
JN Housing Loans YoY 3Q 2.40% 2.70%
JN Japan Buying Foreign Bonds 9-Nov ¥1620.8b -¥167.3b -¥167.4b
JN Japan Buying Foreign Stocks 9-Nov -¥203.9b ¥463.7b ¥470.2b
JN Foreign Buying Japan Bonds 9-Nov ¥413.3b ¥547.4b ¥545.4b
JN Foreign Buying Japan Stocks 9-Nov ¥360.9b ¥107.6b ¥107.4b
AU Consumer Inflation Expectation Nov 3.60% 4.00%
AU Employment Change Oct 20.0k 32.8k 5.6k 7.8k
AU Unemployment Rate Oct 5.10% 5.00% 5.00%
AU Full Time Employment Change Oct 42.3k 20.3k 24.6k
AU Part Time Employment Change Oct -9.5k -14.7k -16.8k
AU Participation Rate Oct 65.50% 65.60% 65.40% 65.50%
AU RBA FX Transactions Market Oct A$450m A$640m
AU RBA FX Transactions Government Oct -A$542m -A$801m
AU RBA FX Transactions Other Oct -A$3906m A$1719m
CH New Home Prices MoM Oct 1.02% 1.00%
JN Tokyo Condominium Sales YoY Oct 2.80% 13.20%
CH Foreign Direct Investment YoY CNY Oct 7.20% 8.00%
EC EU27 New Car Registrations Oct -7.30% -23.50%
UK Retail Sales Ex Auto Fuel MoM Oct 0.20% -0.40% -0.80% -0.30%
UK Retail Sales Ex Auto Fuel YoY Oct 3.40% 2.70% 3.20% 3.60%
UK Retail Sales Inc Auto Fuel MoM Oct 0.20% -0.50% -0.80% -0.40%
UK Retail Sales Inc Auto Fuel YoY Oct 2.80% 2.20% 3.00% 3.30%
IT General Government Debt Sep 2331.3b 2326.5b 2326.6b
EC Trade Balance SA Sep 16.3b 13.4b 16.6b 16.8b
EC Trade Balance NSA Sep 13.1b 11.7b
CA Teranet/National Bank HP Index Oct 225.38 226.23
CA Teranet/National Bank HPI MoM Oct -0.40% 0.00%
CA Teranet/National Bank HPI YoY Oct 2.80% 2.10%
CA ADP Publishes October Payrolls Report
US Empire Manufacturing Nov 20 23.3 21.1
US Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook Nov 20 12.9 22.2
US Retail Sales Advance MoM Oct 0.50% 0.80% 0.10% -0.10%
US Retail Sales Ex Auto MoM Oct 0.50% 0.70% -0.10%
US Retail Sales Ex Auto and Gas Oct 0.40% 0.30% 0.00%
US Retail Sales Control Group Oct 0.40% 0.30% 0.50% 0.30%
US Import Price Index MoM Oct 0.10% 0.50% 0.50% 0.20%
US Import Price Index ex Petroleum MoM Oct 0.00% 0.20% 0.00%
US Import Price Index YoY Oct 3.30% 3.50% 3.50% 3.10%
US Export Price Index MoM Oct 0.10% 0.40% 0.00%
US Export Price Index YoY Oct 3.10% 2.70%
US Initial Jobless Claims 10-Nov 213k 216k 214k
US Continuing Claims 3-Nov 1625k 1676k 1623k 1630k
CA Existing Home Sales MoM Oct -0.20% -1.60% -0.40%
US Bloomberg Consumer Comfort 11-Nov 60.5 61.3
US Business Inventories Sep 0.30% 0.30% 0.50%
IN Trade Balance Oct -$16000.0m -$17130.0m -$13978.6m
IN Exports YoY Oct 17.90% -2.20%
IN Imports YoY Oct 17.60% 10.50%
GE Wholesale Price Index MoM Oct 0.40%
GE Wholesale Price Index YoY Oct 3.50%
HK GDP YoY 3Q 3.30% 3.50%
HK GDP SA QoQ 3Q 0.60% -0.20%
HK Unemployment Rate SA Oct 2.80% 2.80%
IT Industrial Sales WDA YoY Sep 3.20%
IT Industrial Sales MoM Sep 1.20%
IT Industrial Orders NSA YoY Sep 0.90%
IT Industrial Orders MoM Sep 4.90%
EC CPI Core YoY Oct F 1.10% 1.10%
EC CPI YoY Oct F 2.20% 2.10% 2.10%
EC CPI MoM Oct 0.20% 0.50% 0.50%
IT CPI EU Harmonized YoY Oct F 1.70% 1.70%
IT CPI FOI Index Ex Tobacco Oct 102.4 102.4
IT Trade Balance Total Sep 2564m
IT Trade Balance EU Sep 817m
CA Int’l Securities Transactions Sep 2.82b
CA Manufacturing Sales MoM Sep 0.10% -0.40%
US Industrial Production MoM Oct 0.20% 0.30%
US Capacity Utilization Oct 78.20% 78.10%
US Manufacturing (SIC) Production Oct 0.20% 0.20%
US Kansas City Fed Manf. Activity Nov 11 8
US Total Net TIC Flows Sep $108.2b
US Net Long-term TIC Flows Sep $131.8b

About the Author

MatthewKiselicaFVP,Manager of International Trading

Matthew Kiselica joined CAPIS in 2010 and has over twenty-five years of industry experience. Prior to CAPIS, he was vice president of Cazenove’s global sales trading desk in New York. Matthew is a board member for the National Psoriasis Foundation. He earned his bachelor’s degrees in fina...

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