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12.10.2018 19 new posts under International Summary (9), Morning Note (9), CAPIS Headlines (1)

International Summary

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International Summary

"CAPIS Global Recap – 11/29/2018"

posted by Clayton Duff on 11/29/2018 at 7:29 am

by Clayton Duff

11/29/2018 at 7:29 am

Asian Headlines

For the most part Asia did not take the cue from the US post its strong run on Wednesday.  Gain were slight with markets that were up with mainland China disappointing on the session.   Ahead of official PMI readings tonight the Shenzhen was off over 2% with sizable weakness in IT and Financials with the same weighing on the Shanghai.

Japan edged higher with Health Care and Industrials better with retail sales exceeding estimates.  South Korea’s indices were mixed with department store sales there disappointing.  Tomorrow their central bank is expected to increase their 7 day repo rate by 25bps to 1.75%.   Down Under IT names were better bid with Materials also to the upside.  Markets of course are interested if any progress will be made at this weekend’s G20 meeting to be held in Buenos Aires.   One highlight expected is that President Xi will tell President Trump they are continuing to open markets there adding the government will lessen support for SOE’s.

Movers include Mitsui & Co +.9% with the conglomerate increasing their stakes in Asia’s largest private hospital group for ¥230B.

Softbank rallied 3.1% on word they attained their ¥2T retail sales target for their telecom IPO which equates to ¥1500 a share.

Takeda fell 1.8% despite their CFO noting up to $10B in assets could be sold off by the firm to pare down debt post the shire purchase.

ZTE -4.8% is back in focus in the States with two senators asking the Trump administration to look into allegations the firm provided equipment for the Venezuelan government to closely monitor and track its citizens.

Of interest the World Semiconductor Trade Statistics group lowered its growth view for global chip sales for the year to up 2.6% from the prior +5.2% view.  Total sales are seen at $490.1B.

European Headlines

After a strong start European indices have pulled back from better levels to trade with only modest gains on the session. Most sectors are still holding onto gains with solid returns thus far in Basic Resources, Tech, Industrials, and Chemicals.  To the downside Utilities weigh with Energy names flat even as WTI slips below $50.00 a barrel.

On the economic front GDP in Sweden contracted in the 3Q, down .2%. Switzerland too fell .2% with estimates for .4% growth not materializing.  France however their estimate for +.4% QoQ growth in the 3Q. On the inflation front Germany will report their country-wide reading later today but regional readings have thus far shown slowing growth. Also, unemployment hit an all-time low of 5%.

The Pound is lower today, holding in above yesterday’s gains post Powell’s luncheon speech.  The country’s BOE Financial Stability and Stress Test report noted all 7 banks passed with word the sector would withstand a no-deal Brexit.  The Brexit vote in Parliament will take place on December 11th.

Deutsche Bank is off -3.4% after confirming police have raided the bank’s HQ and other sites concerning money-laundering.  The firm has said to be involved with creating off-shore accounts related to the Mossack Fonseca law firm that was cited as helping launder funds found in the Panama Papers.

Rental firm Sixt +3.1% said despite reports out they are not interested in taking a position in the US’ Hertz.

Beer-maker Greene King +3.8% reported better earnings adding they are overly worried about Brexit.  In fact the firm today Brits to “keep calm and go have a pint” adding customers may go the pub to get away from Brexit news which benefits the firm.

Event Survey Actual Prior Revised
JN 16) Japan Buying Foreign Bonds 23-Nov -¥736.4b -¥145.2b -¥140.5b
JN 17) Japan Buying Foreign Stocks 23-Nov ¥80.8b ¥245.3b
JN 18) Foreign Buying Japan Bonds 23-Nov ¥392.0b -¥16.1b -¥16.2b
JN 19) Foreign Buying Japan Stocks 23-Nov -¥195.0b -¥179.2b -¥186.1b
JN 20) Retail Trade YoY Oct 2.70% 3.50% 2.10% 2.20%
JN 21) Retail Sales MoM Oct 0.40% 1.20% -0.20% 0.10%
JN 22) Dept. Store, Supermarket Sales Oct 0.80% -0.80% 0.40%
AU 23) Private Capital Expenditure 3Q 1.00% -0.50% -2.50% -0.90%
CH 24) Swift Global Payments CNY Oct 1.70% 1.89%
SK 25) Department Store Sales YoY Oct 1.20% 4.70%
SK 26) Discount Store Sales YoY Oct -14.30% 8.10%
IN 27) Bloomberg Nov. India Economic Survey (Table)
NE 28) Producer Confidence Index Nov 7.2 5.9
SZ 29) GDP QoQ 3Q 0.40% -0.20% 0.70%
SZ 30) GDP YoY 3Q 2.90% 2.40% 3.40% 3.50%
NO 31) Credit Indicator Growth YoY Oct 5.60% 5.70% 5.60% 5.50%
FR 32) Consumer Spending MoM Oct 0.60% 0.80% -1.70% -2.00%
FR 33) Consumer Spending YoY Oct 0.90% 0.90% -1.50% -2.20%
FR 34) GDP QoQ 3Q P 0.40% 0.40% 0.40%
FR 35) GDP YoY 3Q P 1.50% 1.40% 1.50%
GE 36) CPI Saxony MoM Nov -0.10% 0.20%
GE 37) CPI Saxony YoY Nov 2.10% 2.50%
SP 38) Retail Sales YoY Oct 4.70% -3.10%
SP 39) Retail Sales SA YoY Oct 1.80% -0.90% -0.40%
SP 40) CPI MoM Nov P 0.10% -0.10% 0.90%
SP 41) CPI YoY Nov P 2.00% 1.70% 2.30%
SP 42) CPI EU Harmonised MoM Nov P 0.00% -0.20% 0.70%
SP 43) CPI EU Harmonised YoY Nov P 2.00% 1.70% 2.30%
SW 44) GDP QoQ 3Q 0.20% -0.20% 0.80% 0.50%
SW 45) GDP WDA YoY 3Q 2.20% 1.60% 2.50% 2.70%
GE 46) Unemployment Change (000’s) Nov -10k -16k -11k -12k
GE 47) Unemployment Claims Rate SA Nov 5.10% 5.00% 5.10%
GE 48) CPI Brandenburg MoM Nov -0.10% 0.10%
GE 49) CPI Brandenburg YoY Nov 1.80% 2.30%
GE 50) CPI Hesse MoM Nov 0.30% 0.10%
GE 51) CPI Hesse YoY Nov 2.10% 2.20%
GE 52) CPI Bavaria MoM Nov 0.30% 0.20%
GE 53) CPI Bavaria YoY Nov 2.70% 2.80%
IC 54) CPI MoM Nov 0.20% 0.60%
IC 55) CPI YoY Nov 3.30% 2.80%
UK 56) Net Consumer Credit Oct 1.0b 0.9b 0.8b 0.9b
UK 57) Net Lending Sec. on Dwellings Oct 3.5b 4.1b 3.9b 4.0b
UK 58) Mortgage Approvals Oct 64.6k 67.1k 65.3k 65.7k
UK 59) Money Supply M4 MoM Oct 0.70% -0.30%
UK 60) M4 Money Supply YoY Oct 1.00% 0.90%
UK 61) M4 Ex IOFCs 3M Annualised Oct 2.30% 1.10%
GE 62) CPI North Rhine Westphalia MoM Nov 0.30% 0.10%
GE 63) CPI North Rhine Westphalia YoY Nov 2.40% 2.40%
GE 64) CPI Rhineland-Palatinate MoM Nov 0.30% 0.10%
GE 65) CPI Rhineland-Palatinate YoY Nov 2.50% 2.60%
EC 66) Economic Confidence Nov 109.1 109.5 109.8 109.7
EC 67) Business Climate Indicator Nov 0.96 1.09 1.01
EC 68) Industrial Confidence Nov 2.5 3.4 3
EC 69) Services Confidence Nov 13.1 13.3 13.6 13.3
EC 70) Consumer Confidence Nov F -3.9 -3.9 -3.9
GE 71) CPI Baden Wuerttemberg MoM Nov 0.30% 0.10%
GE 72) CPI Baden Wuerttemberg YoY Nov 2.70% 2.80%
PO 73) Economic Climate Indicator Nov 2.3 2.4
PO 74) Consumer Confidence Index Nov -1.8 -1.1
BE 75) CPI MoM Nov 0.16% 0.68%
BE 76) CPI YoY Nov 2.78% 2.75%
PO 77) Retail Sales MoM Oct 2.30% -1.70% -1.90%
PO 78) Retail Sales YoY Oct 5.20% 1.30% 1.10%

 

About the Author

ClaytonDuffFVP,Senior International Trader

Clayton Duff joined the firm in 2008. He has worked in the industry since 1994 and held various trading and sales positions before CAPIS, including four years as a trader for First Southwest. He earned his bachelor’s degree from the University of Texas Arlington. Clayton maintains Series 3,...

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