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12.10.2018 19 new posts under International Summary (9), Morning Note (9), CAPIS Headlines (1)

International Summary

News Trading Desk

International Summary

"CAPIS Global Recap – 11/30/2018"

posted by Clayton Duff on 11/30/2018 at 6:52 am

by Clayton Duff

11/30/2018 at 6:52 am

Asian Headlines

Another mixed session in Asia with mainland China regaining a good bit of Thursday’s losses.  This was post Manufacturing PMI that while remained in expansion territory missed estimates.  For November the reading came at 50.0, a hair light of the previous 50.2 reading and like estimate. New export orders saw some growth but remained under the 50 level with a 47.0 reading.  Non-manufacturing missed as well but markets there shook off the news to see almost all sectors to the upside.  Elsewhere gains and losses were kept in check except for Australia which saw some sizable losses in Consumer Staple names along with RE and some discretionarys.

Volumes today were higher with the MSCI rebalance taking effect. Also in focus the G20 kicks off tonight with Presidents Trump and Xi to dine while a new trading agreement between the US, Canada, and Mexico is expected to be signed. In addition to China’s PMI Industrial production in Japan beat estimates while construction orders fell 16.5% in October.  Industrial Production moved back to positive levels in South Korea with their central bank upping their repo rate 25bps as expected.

SK’s central bank also weighed on semis there today with a statement that a boom in the space probably will not occur next year. As you remember yesterday an international semi organization pared down their expected growth for next year with today’s statement leaving Samsung Electronics closing at lows, down 3% today.   The firm earlier said it would cancel $4.4B worth of treasury shares.  Conversely Hyundai Motors rallied 7% after they announced a plan to buyback 213.7B Won of stock.

Back to China press reports out noted the US is considering delaying tariffs on China if farm and energy production restrictions there are amended.  And of interest the PBoC went the entire month of November without conduction open market ops.

European Headlines

Going into lunch today European indices have seemed to halt early selling despite Autos continuing lower.  The sector is off ~2% with Banks, Construction, and Retailers seeing losses of over a percent.  Despite oil lower Energy leads as sector but with small gains. On the economic front inflation for the region met estimates which was a bit slower than the prior reading.  Import prices though for Germany were stronger with nationwide home prices in the UK also showing some acceleration.

The disappointing lack of growth in inflation has not weighed too much on the Euro today as it has been steady for much of the session.  Headlines out highlight PM May’s next steps which include plans for a quite-possible no vote on Brexit from her parliament.  On that the Pound is slightly lower today.

Weighing on the auto space today Daimler is off  3% after HSBC cut the sector citing political and macro uncertainties.  Cited for the reduction in price targets include the tighter emission rules in the region coupled with a slowing in both the US and Europe and poor visibility in China. Parts-maker Faurecia -7.5% is another hard hit name in the space.

Deutsche Bank -2.6% again lower with police raids continuing.  Today the bank’s chief regulatory officer Matherat was reported to have had his office searched.  Related, the German union Ver.di is demanding a 6% raise for bank employees there.

Continued Chinese concerns weigh on luxury names today with Burberry -2.8%, LVMH -2%, and Richemont -1.8%. Swatch -1.6% and Kering -1.7% weaker as well.

Cable firm Altice is up +9% after they inked a deal to sell half of its French fiber venture for $2.05B.

***This just out, President Trump signed the USMCA trade deal with both Canada and Mexico this morning in Buenos Aires***.

Event Survey Actual Prior Revised
SK 56) Industrial Production SA MoM Oct 1.10% 1.00% -2.50% -2.70%
SK 57) Industrial Production YoY Oct 6.90% 10.70% -8.40%
SK 58) Cyclical Leading Index Change Oct -0.4 -0.2
JN 59) Job-To-Applicant Ratio Oct 1.65 1.62 1.64
JN 60) Jobless Rate Oct 2.30% 2.40% 2.30%
JN 61) Tokyo CPI YoY Nov 1.10% 0.80% 1.50%
JN 62) Tokyo CPI Ex-Fresh Food YoY Nov 1.00% 1.00% 1.00%
JN 63) Tokyo CPI Ex-Fresh Food, Energy YoY Nov 0.60% 0.60% 0.60%
JN 64) Industrial Production MoM Oct P 1.20% 2.90% -0.40%
JN 65) Industrial Production YoY Oct P 2.50% 4.20% -2.50%
UK 66) Lloyds Business Barometer Nov 24 19
AU 67) Private Sector Credit MoM Oct 0.40% 0.40% 0.40%
AU 68) Private Sector Credit YoY Oct 4.60% 4.60% 4.60%
SK 69) BoK 7-Day Repo Rate 30-Nov 1.75% 1.75% 1.50%
CH 70) Non-manufacturing PMI Nov 53.8 53.4 53.9
CH 71) Manufacturing PMI Nov 50.2 50 50.2
CH 72) Composite PMI Nov 52.8 53.1
JN 73) Vehicle Production YoY Sep -5.30% -0.30% -0.30%
JN 74) Consumer Confidence Index Nov 43.2 42.9 43
JN 75) Housing Starts YoY Oct -0.10% 0.30% -1.50%
JN 76) Annualized Housing Starts Oct 0.941m 0.950m 0.943m
JN 77) Construction Orders YoY Oct -16.50% 1.00%
UK 78) Nationwide House PX MoM Nov 0.10% 0.30% 0.00%
UK 79) Nationwide House Px NSA YoY Nov 1.70% 1.90% 1.60%
GE 80) Retail Sales MoM Oct 0.40% -0.30% 0.10% -0.30%
GE 81) Retail Sales YoY Oct 1.40% 5.00% -2.60% -2.80%
GE 82) Import Price Index MoM Oct 0.40% 1.00% 0.40%
GE 83) Import Price Index YoY Oct 4.20% 4.80% 4.40%
DE 84) Unemployment Rate SA Oct 3.10% 3.20% 3.10%
DE 85) Unemployment Rate Gross Rate Oct 3.90% 3.90%
NO 86) Retail Sales W/Auto Fuel MoM Oct 0.00% -0.20% -0.70% -0.60%
FI 87) GDP QoQ 3Q 0.40% 0.30%
FI 88) GDP WDA YoY 3Q 2.40% 2.50% 2.30%
FI 89) Trade Balance Sep F -165m -160m
DE 90) GDP SA QoQ 3Q P 0.60% 0.70% 0.20%
DE 91) GDP SA YoY 3Q P 2.10% 2.00% 0.60% 0.20%
FR 92) PPI MoM Oct 0.40% 0.30% 0.40%
FR 93) PPI YoY Oct 3.90% 3.60% 3.70%
FR 94) CPI EU Harmonized MoM Nov P -0.20% -0.20% 0.10%
FR 95) CPI EU Harmonized YoY Nov P 2.30% 2.20% 2.50%
FR 96) CPI MoM Nov P -0.20% -0.20% 0.10%
FR 97) CPI YoY Nov P 2.00% 1.90% 2.20%
SZ 98) KOF Leading Indicator Nov 99.5 99.1 100.1 100.2
SP 99) Total Mortgage Lending YoY Sep 15.40% 10.30%
SP 100) House Mortgage Approvals YoY Sep 9.50% 6.80%
AS 101) PPI MoM Oct 0.40% 0.30%
AS 102) PPI YoY Oct 3.40% 3.30%
AS 103) GDP SA QoQ 3Q F 0.30% 0.40%
AS 104) GDP NSA YoY 3Q F 2.20% 2.40%
HK 105) Retail Sales Value YoY Oct 3.60% 5.90% 2.40%
HK 106) Retail Sales Volume YoY Oct 2.80% 5.20% 1.40%
HK 107) Budget Balance HKD Oct 29.3b -9.3b
SW 108) Wages Non-Manual Workers YoY Sep 2.60% 2.60%
HK 109) Money Supply M1 HKD YoY Oct -25.70% -0.30%
HK 110) Money Supply M2 HKD YoY Oct -2.20% 4.20%
HK 111) Money Supply M3 HKD YoY Oct -2.10% 4.30%
NO 112) Norges Bank Daily FX Purchases Dec -350m -350m
NO 113) Unemployment Rate Nov 2.20% 2.30% 2.20%
IC 114) Trade Balance Oct F -12101 -11700
IT 115) Unemployment Rate Oct P 10.10% 10.60% 10.10% 10.30%
SP 116) Current Account Balance Sep 0.9b 1.8b
PO 117) CPI MoM Nov P -0.40% -0.10%
PO 118) CPI YoY Nov P 0.90% 1.00%
PO 119) CPI EU Harmonized MoM Nov P -0.90% -0.50%
PO 120) CPI EU Harmonized YoY Nov P 1.00% 0.80%
EC 121) Unemployment Rate Oct 8.00% 8.10% 8.10%
EC 122) CPI Core YoY Nov A 1.10% 1.00% 1.10%
EC 123) CPI Estimate YoY Nov 2.00% 2.00% 2.20%
GR 124) Retail Sales YoY Sep 4.90% 4.80% 5.20%
IT 125) CPI EU Harmonized MoM Nov P -0.20% -0.20% 0.20%
IT 126) CPI NIC incl. tobacco MoM Nov P -0.20% -0.10% 0.00%
IT 127) CPI NIC incl. tobacco YoY Nov P 1.60% 1.70% 1.60%
IT 128) CPI EU Harmonized YoY Nov P 1.60% 1.70% 1.70%
BE 129) Unemployment Rate Oct 6.20% 6.30%
IT 130) GDP WDA QoQ 3Q F 0.00% -0.10% 0.00%
IT 131) GDP WDA YoY 3Q F 0.80% 0.70% 0.80%
PO 132) Industrial Production MoM Oct -0.90% -2.80% -2.60%
PO 133) Industrial Production YoY Oct -0.30% -0.10% -0.30%
PO 134) GDP QoQ 3Q F 0.30% 0.30%
PO 135) GDP YoY 3Q F 2.10% 2.10%
IN 136) Eight Infrastructure Industries Oct 4.80% 4.30%
IN 137) Fiscal Deficit INR Crore Oct 53851 3441
IN 138) GDP YoY 3Q 7.50% 7.10% 8.20%
IN 139) GVA YoY 3Q 7.30% 6.90% 8.00%
BE 140) GDP SA QoQ 3Q F 0.40%
BE 141) GDP SA YoY 3Q F 1.70%

About the Author

ClaytonDuffFVP,Senior International Trader

Clayton Duff joined the firm in 2008. He has worked in the industry since 1994 and held various trading and sales positions before CAPIS, including four years as a trader for First Southwest. He earned his bachelor’s degree from the University of Texas Arlington. Clayton maintains Series 3,...

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