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International Summary

"CAPIS TGIF Global Markets 1/11/2019"

posted by Matthew Kiselica on 01/11/2019 at 7:14 am

by Matthew Kiselica

01/11/2019 at 7:14 am

Asian Markets

The majority of the region gains on word Chinese Premier Liu will come to the States Jan. 30th and 31st to resume trade talks.   There were two markets that did not participate in the advance.  India was weighed down by disappointing results from Tata Consulting -2.5%.  Australia also dipped with financials and basic resources weighing upon the ASX200.

Overall, the majority of sectors ended the day higher.  IT lead with a gain about c. 1% while health care is the only major group that suffered a downtick, albeit minor.

Plenty of Earnings and Updates

  • Fast Retailing +6.2% shareholders were pleased with a 5.2% y/y increase in December sales.  Performance in markets overseas more than offset weakness in Japan.  The numbers were released after yesterday’s close.
  • Also after yesterday’s close, TSMC’s +2.1% Q4 sales of NT$289.8b which was a smidge ahead of consensus.  Overall, reassuring following the recent scares in the sector.
  • Seven & I’s -1.9% Q3 OP of ¥104.6b vs. the ¥111.2b estimate.
  • Anhui Conch Cement -1.9% sees 2018 NI jumping 80%-100% y/y citing rising product pricing and structural reform in the cement sector.
  • LG Display ‘s +0.75% CEO sees sales of OLED screens boosting total revenue by 50% by 2020.
  • Samsung Elec. +1.75% confirmed the announcement of the launch of its new Galaxy phone in San Francisco on Feb. 20.
  • After the close,  Infosys reported Q3 NI that was below the range according to Bloomberg.  This was largely due to writedowns of the its holding in Skava.  However, revenues beat, the company raised its FY revenue growth outlook and announced a buyback of c. $1.2b.

European Markets

Europe has spent the first few hours of the session mostly to the upside with a high of c. 0.4%   U.K. press reports allege the declaration of Article 50 (Brexit) may be delayed past March 29th.  However, members of PM May’s cabinet have since stated this is not the case.  The former caused a brief spike to equities while the latter has caused us to drift off.   Interestingly, the £ has managed to maintain most of its advance on the story.

Sectors are currently evenly split.  Cons. staples have led all session but have pared the advance currently trading around 0.5%.  The auto sector has suffered all session and is off more than 1.5%.  Details below!

Important Snippets

  • The auto sector weakness has been the result of a host of headlines.  For starters, Kepler Chevreaux has released a negative note seeing a host of headwinds especially for the suppliers.  Adding to woes: Geely Auto +0.9% cut its stake in Daimler -2.0% by more than ½.  VW’s -2.4% Dec. sales -8.4% y/y.  BMW -2.0% Dec. Sales -0.7% y/y and the company low to mid “1 digit” percent rage growth FY ’19,  Renault -3.7% Chairman Ghosn is facing more charges in Japan.
  • Sources claim Ab Inbev +3.2% is mulling an IPO for its Asian operations to unlock value and reduce debt.

On Our Side of the Pond

  • The focus will remain upon D.C. and the budget impasse.  Pres. Trump has called off talks stating they are pointless while cancelling his scheduled trip to Davos.
  • Brazil has signaled it will not block the Boeing/Embraer merger.
  • Peru has kept its benchmark rate at 1.75%, as expected.

Markets and Macro Data

Markets Snapshot

Event Survey Actual Prior Revised
AU AiG Perf of Construction Index Dec 42.6 44.5
JN Household Spending YoY Nov -0.10% -0.60% -0.30%
JN BoP Current Account Balance Nov P ¥566.3b ¥757.2b ¥1309.9b
JN Trade Balance BoP Basis Nov P -¥612.6b -¥559.1b -¥321.7b
JN BoP Current Account Adjusted Nov P ¥1124.3b ¥1438.7b ¥1211.3b
JN Bank Lending Incl Trusts YoY Dec 2.10% 2.40% 2.10%
JN Bank Lending Ex-Trusts YoY Dec 2.50% 2.20%
AU Retail Sales MoM Nov 0.30% 0.40% 0.30%
JN Eco Watchers Survey Current SA Dec 50.7 48 51
JN Eco Watchers Survey Outlook SA Dec 51.4 48.5 52.2
FR Bank of France Ind. Sentiment Dec 100 103 101
SP Industrial Output NSA YoY Nov -2.80% 3.60% 3.70%
SP Industrial Output SA YoY Nov 0.30% -2.60% 0.80% 0.70%
SP Industrial Production MoM Nov 0.40% -1.50% 1.20% 1.10%
SP House transactions YoY Nov 2.80% 15.80%
IT Industrial Production MoM Nov -0.30% -1.60% 0.10% -0.10%
IT Industrial Production WDA YoY Nov 0.40% -2.60% 1.00%
IT Industrial Production NSA YoY Nov -2.60% 4.20%
UK Visible Trade Balance GBP/Mn Nov -£11400m -£12023m -£11873m -£11946m
UK Trade Balance Non EU GBP/Mn Nov -£3775m -£3925m -£4251m -£4318m
UK Trade Balance Nov -£2800m -£2904m -£3300m -£3037m
UK Industrial Production MoM Nov 0.20% -0.40% -0.60% -0.50%
UK Industrial Production YoY Nov -0.70% -1.50% -0.80% -0.90%
UK Manufacturing Production MoM Nov 0.40% -0.30% -0.90% -0.60%
UK Manufacturing Production YoY Nov -0.70% -1.10% -1.00% -0.70%
UK Construction Output SA MoM Nov 0.20% 0.60% -0.20% 0.00%
UK Construction Output SA YoY Nov 2.60% 3.00% 3.80% 4.10%
UK GDP (MoM) Nov 0.10% 0.20% 0.10%
UK Monthly GDP 3M/3M Change Nov 0.30% 0.30% 0.40%
UK Index of Services MoM Nov 0.10% 0.30% 0.20%
UK Index of Services 3M/3M Nov 0.20% 0.30% 0.30%
IN Industrial Production YoY Nov 3.60% 0.50% 8.10%
US CPI MoM Dec -0.10% 0.00%
US CPI Ex Food and Energy MoM Dec 0.20% 0.20%
US CPI YoY Dec 1.90% 2.20%
US CPI Ex Food and Energy YoY Dec 2.20% 2.20%
US CPI Core Index SA Dec 259.987 259.481
US CPI Index NSA Dec 251.074 252.038
US Real Avg Weekly Earnings YoY Dec 1.20% 0.50% 0.60%
US Real Avg Hourly Earning YoY Dec 0.80%
US Bloomberg Jan. United States Economic Survey

About the Author

MatthewKiselicaFVP,Manager of International Trading

Matthew Kiselica joined CAPIS in 2010 and has over twenty-five years of industry experience. Prior to CAPIS, he was vice president of Cazenove’s global sales trading desk in New York. Matthew is a board member for the National Psoriasis Foundation. He earned his bachelor’s degrees in fina...

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