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04.23.2019 15 new posts under Morning Note (8), General (3), International Summary (3), and 1 more category

International Summary

News Trading Desk

International Summary

"CAPIS Global Markets 1/15/2019"

posted by Matthew Kiselica on 01/15/2019 at 7:28 am

by Matthew Kiselica

01/15/2019 at 7:28 am

Asian Markets

A reversal in fortune compared to yesterday.  The markets responded to stimulus pledges in the China.   Those came from a number of government entities including the PBoC and Ministry of Finance.  Those actions included “tax cuts on a larger scale” especially for small businesses and the manufacturing sector.  There were also comments pertaining to “supportive regulatory policies.”  To that end, the first half of the 1% reserve ratio cut announced last week became effective today.

This prompted the markets to rally.   Even Japan which had to play catch-down following yesterday’s holiday, erased initial losses to end the day with a solid gain.  All the major sectors advanced.  IT improved by more 2% with financials, telcos, consumer staples, real estate, materials and energy gaining  by at least 1%.

Other Important Headlines

  • S. Korean auto stocks were driven higher with SK Securities making positive comments.
  • Investors gobbled up Nintendo % shares following the Barron’s article saying Apple should purchase the economy.
  • Chow Tai Food % suffered a 6.0% y/y decline in Hong Kong/Macau same store sales.
  • China Life % following the FY ’18 Premium sales announced after yesterday’s close.

European Markets

Europe had a solid start hitting highs with a 0.9% gain shortly after the open.  However, from there the markets have steadily been pulling back.  For starters, the U.K. holds the Brexit vote in Parliament today.  Debate and procedures will last all day with the vote scheduled to occur at 2PM Eastern.  PM May’s measure is expected to fail by a wide margin.  What the market is closely watching is what action will the legislature dictate from here.   Taking the last of the bid out of the market were JP Morgan results.  Not only were there a number of revenue misses, the bank see net interest income flat while costs will increase.

Sectors are fairly split;.  Industrials and financials are up less than 0.5%.  Telecoms are off 1% with travel and leisure, media, banks and retail lower by c. 0.5%.  The banking center has created a fair portion of the drag which is no surprise given the JPM disappointment.  Mining stocks and autos are also well off there respective highs.

Stock Snippets

  • Gaming names are under pressure following following a ruling by the U.S. DoJ.   It reversed an earlier decision stating only online sports betting was illegal.  Yesterday, it indicated all online betting was against the law.
  • Peugeot’s-flat- FY ’18 auto sales reached a record 3.98m increasing 6.8% y/y.  However, sales in China fell 32.2% y/y.
  • Deutsche Post -2.4% had been outperforming on reports postage rates would be increased during April.  However, German regulators indicated the increase would not exceed 4.8%.   This is less than had been anticipated and the company has called that increase insufficient.

Markets and Macro

Market Snapshots

Event Survey Actual Prior Revised
SK Export Price Index MoM Dec -2.00% -2.30% -2.70%
SK Export Price Index YoY Dec -0.60% 0.30% 0.00%
SK Import Price Index YoY Dec 3.20% 6.00% 6.10%
SK Import Price Index MoM Dec -3.40% -4.60% -4.50%
AU ANZ Roy Morgan Weekly Consumer Confidence Index 13-Jan 116.8 115.2
JN Money Stock M2 YoY Dec 2.40% 2.40% 2.30%
JN Money Stock M3 YoY Dec 2.10% 2.10% 2.10%
JN Bankruptcies YoY Dec -10.63% 6.05%
JN Machine Tool Orders YoY Dec P -18.30% -17.00%
FR CPI EU Harmonized MoM Dec F 0.10% 0.10% 0.10%
FR CPI EU Harmonized YoY Dec F 1.90% 1.90% 1.90%
FR CPI MoM Dec F 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
FR CPI YoY Dec F 1.60% 1.60% 1.60%
FR CPI Ex-Tobacco Index Dec 103.16 103.16 103.14
FR Budget Balance YTD Nov -95.6b -87.0b
CH Money Supply M1 YoY Dec 1.60% 1.50% 1.50%
CH Money Supply M2 YoY Dec 8.10% 8.10% 8.00%
CH New Yuan Loans CNY Dec 825.0b 1080.0b 1250.0b
CH Money Supply M0 YoY Dec 3.00% 3.60% 2.80%
SP CPI MoM Dec F -0.40% -0.40% -0.40%
SP CPI YoY Dec F 1.20% 1.20% 1.20%
SP CPI EU Harmonised MoM Dec F -0.50% -0.50% -0.50%
SP CPI EU Harmonised YoY Dec F 1.20% 1.20% 1.20%
CH Aggregate Financing CNY Dec 1300.0b 1589.8b 1519.1b 1523.9b
UK SURVEY REPORT: U.K. Economic Forecasts in Jan. 2019
GE GDP NSA YoY 2018 1.50% 1.50% 2.20%
GE Budget Maastricht % of GDP 2018 1.70% 1.00%
IT General Government Debt Nov 2345.3b 2334.4b 2335.1b
EC Trade Balance SA Nov 12.6b 15.1b 12.5b 13.5b
EC Trade Balance NSA Nov 19.0b 14.0b
IN Trade Balance Dec -$14500.0m -$13077.3m -$16670.0m
IN Exports YoY Dec 0.30% 0.80%
IN Imports YoY Dec -2.40% 4.30%
US Empire Manufacturing Jan 10 10.9
US PPI Final Demand MoM Dec -0.10% 0.10%
US PPI Ex Food and Energy MoM Dec 0.20% 0.30%
US PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade MoM Dec 0.20% 0.30%
US PPI Final Demand YoY Dec 2.50% 2.50%
US PPI Ex Food and Energy YoY Dec 2.90% 2.70%
US PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade YoY Dec 2.80% 2.80%
CA Existing Home Sales MoM Dec -1.00% -2.30%

About the Author

MatthewKiselicaFVP,Manager of International Trading

Matthew Kiselica joined CAPIS in 2010 and has over twenty-five years of industry experience. Prior to CAPIS, he was vice president of Cazenove’s global sales trading desk in New York. Matthew is a board member for the National Psoriasis Foundation. He earned his bachelor’s degrees in fina...

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