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03.21.2019 26 new posts under International Summary (16), Morning Note (9), Compliance Docs. (1)

International Summary

News Trading Desk

International Summary

"CAPIS Global Markets 3/14/2019"

posted by Matthew Kiselica on 03/14/2019 at 6:56 am

by Matthew Kiselica

03/14/2019 at 6:56 am

Asian Markets

For the most part, the markets showed muted reaction to the outcome of yesterday’s Brexit “no deal” vote.  The real driver for trading is the day’s Chinese macro data.  February industrial production is short of consensus and hits a 17 year low.  The February jobless rate rose from January’s reading.  Chinese officials noted the impact of the Lunar New Year may carry over.

This caused the Chinese mainland markets to see solid declines.  Japan had been trading to the upside but pulled back to score minimal losses.  The rest of the region was mixed.

The technology sector settled lower by about 1% with real estate off by c. 0.7%.  The energy sector gained 0.5% following crude’s surging due to the weekly U.S. inventory data.

Other Important Headlines

  • Samsonite Intl +5.4% sees its FY earnings beating the highest estimate.
  • China Unicom’s +3.3% earnings are also better than the range.  The company’s strong data usage and subscriber growth are offsetting price reductions.
  • Down Under, CBA -0.15% will not spin-off its wealth management and mortgage unit.
  • Daiwa House +0.15% will take an ¥11.7b charge due to “an accounting disparity” at a Chinese affiliate.

European Markets

Europe has been trading to the upside since the open.  The markets are currently near their respective highs.  Italy trades well with banks seeing significant buying interest.  For starters, ECB member Couere stated “Italy was not a threat to the € and there is “no reason” the nation should remain in recession.  Also, the Italian Cabinet is reportedly to roll out a new “bad load scheme” in the coming days.

Most sectors advance and the following are better by at least 1%: personal goods, media, energy, travel/leisure, telecoms and insurance.  The Chinese concerns weigh upon basic resources with technology and chemicals lagging.

Brexit remains as muddled as ever.  While Parliament narrowly voted against a “no deal” Brexit scenario, that still does NOT mean it can’t happen.  March 29th is 15 days away.

Corporate Snippets

  • In its Capital Markets Day presentation, BATS +1.6% sees its near term revenue growth in the “upper half of 3-5%.”
  • Generali +0.9% is another positive for Italian financials.  The company’s OP beat consensus and overall aggressive targets were met.  The life insurance unit saw strong inflows.
  • Lufthansa’s -4.5% revenues are inline but ongoing fare competition weighed upon earnings.  The airline is reducing its growth plans and is seeing some downgrades.

On Our Side of the Pond

  • Late yesterday, a California court awarded a $31m talc related judgment against Johnson & Johnson.
  • Following yesterday’s outage woes, Facebook is also allegedly facing a U.S. criminal investigation.
  • GE warning FY adj. EPS will only reach 50c to 60c vs. consensus of 67c.

Markets and Macro

Markets Snapshot

Event Survey Actual Prior Revised
JN Japan Buying Foreign Bonds 8-Mar ¥245.7b ¥453.1b ¥456.1b
JN Japan Buying Foreign Stocks 8-Mar ¥623.8b -¥1.6b
JN Foreign Buying Japan Bonds 8-Mar ¥459.1b ¥1025.8b
JN Foreign Buying Japan Stocks 8-Mar -¥1158.6b -¥341.3b -¥340.5b
AU Consumer Inflation Expectation Mar 4.10% 3.70%
UK RICS House Price Balance Feb -24% -28% -22%
JN Bloomberg March Japan Economic Survey (Table)
CH Fixed Assets Ex Rural YTD YoY Feb 6.10% 6.10% 5.90%
CH Industrial Production YTD YoY Feb 5.60% 5.30% 6.20%
CH Retail Sales YTD YoY Feb 8.20% 8.20% 9.00%
CH Surveyed Jobless Rate Feb 5.30% 4.90%
CH Property Investment YTD YoY Feb 11.60% 9.50%
IN Wholesale Prices YoY Feb 2.80% 2.93% 2.76%
GE CPI MoM Feb F 0.50% 0.40% 0.50%
GE CPI YoY Feb F 1.60% 1.50% 1.60%
GE CPI EU Harmonized MoM Feb F 0.50% 0.50% 0.50%
GE CPI EU Harmonized YoY Feb F 1.70% 1.70% 1.70%
FR CPI EU Harmonized MoM Feb F 0.10% 0.10% 0.10%
FR CPI EU Harmonized YoY Feb F 1.50% 1.60% 1.50%
FR CPI MoM Feb F 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
FR CPI YoY Feb F 1.30% 1.30% 1.30%
FR CPI Ex-Tobacco Index Feb 102.68 102.73 102.67
SP House transactions YoY Jan -0.20% 3.80%
HK Industrial Production YoY 4Q 1.30% 1.20%
HK PPI YoY 4Q 0.30% 0.10%
CA New Housing Price Index MoM Jan 0.00% 0.00%
US Import Price Index MoM Feb 0.30% -0.50%
CA New Housing Price Index YoY Jan 0.00% 0.00%
US Import Price Index ex Petroleum MoM Feb -0.10% -0.70%
US Import Price Index YoY Feb -1.50% -1.70%
US Export Price Index MoM Feb 0.10% -0.60%
US Export Price Index YoY Feb -0.20%
US Initial Jobless Claims 9-Mar 225k 223k
US Continuing Claims 2-Mar 1763k 1755k
US Bloomberg March United States Economic Survey
US Bloomberg Consumer Comfort 10-Mar 62.1
US New Home Sales MoM Jan 0.20% 3.70%
US New Home Sales Jan 622k 621k

About the Author

MatthewKiselicaFVP,Manager of International Trading

Matthew Kiselica joined CAPIS in 2010 and has over twenty-five years of industry experience. Prior to CAPIS, he was vice president of Cazenove’s global sales trading desk in New York. Matthew is a board member for the National Psoriasis Foundation. He earned his bachelor’s degrees in fina...

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