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04.18.2019 21 new posts under Morning Note (9), International Summary (7), General (3), and 1 more category

International Summary

News Trading Desk

International Summary

"TGIF Global Markets 3/22/2019"

posted by Matthew Kiselica on 03/22/2019 at 6:57 am

by Matthew Kiselica

03/22/2019 at 6:57 am

Asian Markets

A push across as the region as most of the markets record minimal moves in the last trading day of the week.  Falling bond yields remain a trend.  Japan’s 10 yr. yield reached its lowest level since 2016, New Zealand’s an all time low and Australia’s approaching it.

Sectors were were mixed.  IT once gain led but today buy only 0.5%.  Healthcare was lower by  about that mark.

Important Headlines

  • Tencent’s +0.5% results are providing some relief to investors.  Gaming revenues slumped but Jefferies sees them rebounding this year.  Also, it is managing to grow other business lines such as cloud and fintech.
  • The crude sector saw results from both CNOOC +0.6% and Petrochina -2.0%.
  • Both CK Asset +1.5% and CKH Holdings +1.3% traded well following their earnings.
  • Elliott Management saw its dividend proposals defeated by shareholders of both Hyundai Motor -0.8% and Hyundai Mobis +0.5%.
  • Eisai spent the entire session limit down following yesterday’s Biogen-aducanumab news.  The company was co-developing the Alzheimer treatment with Biogen.

European Markets

The region started to the upside for the first 30 minutes or so.  However, the markets fell into the red after German Markit Manuf. PMI was well below consensus.  Additionally, the EC and  French results are below forecasts and the key 50 level.

European core yields are also seeing substantial declines.  The yield on the German 10 yr. bund is in negative territory.  Italian yields are bucking the trend.  The new Italian bad loan scheme has stricter terms than the previous plan.  This is sending Italian yields higher and Italian banks weaker.

The majority of sectors are in the red.  Industrials and banks are off c. 1%.  Utilities and retail are managing to make some headway.

There are important developments regarding Brexit.  The EU has proposed an extension to the deadline.  It is now set for April 12th if the UK fails to agree to terms.  However, if a deal is reached, the date would be moved until the 22nd of May.

Snippets from the Region

  • Deutsche Bk +0.2% sees FY19 revenues “slightly” better than FY18.  Merger discussion with Commerzbank-flat continue.
  • Novartis-flat is setting April 9th as the date for Alcon spin-off.  Shareholders will receive 1 Alcon share for every 5 Novartis shares or ADRs held.
  • An initial review following the money laundering scandal at Swedbank -1.2% permits CEO Bonnesen to retain her post.  The bank is conducting a deeper dive into the matter focusing upon 50 clients.

On Our Side of the Pond

  • Nike is trading lower in the pre-market.  The headline results including EPS read well.  However, a miss in N. America is weighing.
  • Tiffany is also seeing lower trading following results.
  • Reports say Uber has elected to list on the NYSE.
  • Canada will release retail sales and CPI with US due to see various Markit PMI readings and existing hope sales.

Markets and Macro

Markets Snapshot

Event Survey Actual Prior Revised
AU CBA Australia PMI Mfg Mar P 52 52.9
AU CBA Australia PMI Services Mar P 49.8 48.7
AU CBA Australia PMI Composite Mar P 50 49.1
JN Natl CPI YoY Feb 0.30% 0.20% 0.20%
JN Natl CPI Ex Fresh Food YoY Feb 0.80% 0.70% 0.80%
JN Natl CPI Ex Fresh Food, Energy YoY Feb 0.40% 0.40% 0.40%
JN Japan Buying Foreign Bonds 15-Mar -¥571.6b ¥245.7b ¥254.2b
JN Japan Buying Foreign Stocks 15-Mar ¥450.9b ¥623.8b
JN Foreign Buying Japan Bonds 15-Mar ¥401.6b ¥459.1b
JN Foreign Buying Japan Stocks 15-Mar -¥1588.9b -¥1158.6b -¥1157.5b
JN Nikkei Japan PMI Mfg Mar P 48.9 48.9
JN Supermarket Sales YoY Feb -2.50% -3.40%
JN Leading Index CI Jan F 96.5 95.9
JN Coincident Index Jan F 98.1 97.9
JN Nationwide Dept Sales YoY Feb 0.40% -2.90%
JN Tokyo Dept Store Sales YoY Feb -0.50% -2.90%
FR Wages QoQ 4Q F 0.30% 0.20% 0.20%
FR Markit France Manufacturing PMI Mar P 51.4 49.8 51.5
FR Markit France Services PMI Mar P 50.6 48.7 50.2
FR Markit France Composite PMI Mar P 50.7 48.7 50.4
GE Markit/BME Germany Manufacturing PMI Mar P 48 44.7 47.6
GE Markit Germany Services PMI Mar P 54.8 54.9 55.3
GE Markit/BME Germany Composite PMI Mar P 52.8 51.5 52.8
HK BoP Overall 4Q $24.00b -$41.72b
HK BoP Current Account Balance 4Q $42.08b $45.77b $48.01b
EC ECB Current Account SA Jan 36.8b 16.2b
EC Markit Eurozone Manufacturing PMI Mar P 49.5 47.6 49.3
EC Markit Eurozone Services PMI Mar P 52.7 52.7 52.8
EC Markit Eurozone Composite PMI Mar P 52 51.3 51.9
IT Current Account Balance Jan 3m 4211m 4447m
CA Retail Sales MoM Jan 0.40% -0.10%
CA Retail Sales Ex Auto MoM Jan 0.10% -0.50%
CA CPI NSA MoM Feb 0.60% 0.10%
CA CPI YoY Feb 1.40% 1.40%
CA Consumer Price Index Feb 134.4 133.6
CA CPI Core- Common YoY% Feb 1.80% 1.90%
CA CPI Core- Median YoY% Feb 1.80% 1.80%
CA CPI Core- Trim YoY% Feb 1.80% 1.90%
US Markit US Manufacturing PMI Mar P 53.5 53
US Markit US Services PMI Mar P 55.5 56
US Markit US Composite PMI Mar P 55.5
US Wholesale Inventories MoM Jan 0.10% 1.10%
US Wholesale Trade Sales MoM Jan -1.00%
US Existing Home Sales Feb 5.10m 4.94m
US Existing Home Sales MoM Feb 3.20% -1.20%
US Monthly Budget Statement Feb -$227.0b -$215.2b

About the Author

MatthewKiselicaFVP,Manager of International Trading

Matthew Kiselica joined CAPIS in 2010 and has over twenty-five years of industry experience. Prior to CAPIS, he was vice president of Cazenove’s global sales trading desk in New York. Matthew is a board member for the National Psoriasis Foundation. He earned his bachelor’s degrees in fina...

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