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06.18.2019 19 new International Summary posts under Morning Note (10) and International Summary (9)

International Summary

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International Summary

"TGIF Global Markets 3/29/2019"

posted by Matthew Kiselica on 03/29/2019 at 7:19 am

by Matthew Kiselica

03/29/2019 at 7:19 am

Asian Markets

Word of progress in the Sino-US trade talks lifts equities.  Most of the major indices recorded significant gains with the Chinese markets leading the way.  Surprisingly, Australia lagged with utilities and energy among others holding the ASX200 back.  For the region, all major sectors end the day better.   Consumer staples, financials, healthcare and real estate improve by c. 2%.

European Markets

Europe is also trading well and currently near highs of the day.  Sweden lags the as the anti-money laundering scandal continues to weigh upon the banks.  Basic resources area head by c. 2%.  Retail, autos, technology, financials and constructions improve by c. 1.0% or more.  with most other sectors to the upside.  Defensives and travel/leisure lag.

We couldn’t go a day without mentioning Brexit. Parliament will have a third vote regarding PM May’s Brexit plan.  However, today’s vote will only be for a portion of the existing deal she has hammered out with the EU.  Debate is occurring as we to to press with the tally scheduled for 10:30 AM Eastern.

Other Important International Headlines

  • ICBC -0.8% did not take part in today’s rally following results out after yesterday’s close.  FY 18 NI is CNY 297.7b vs. CNY 300.41b expected.  The NPL ratio is 1.52% while NII improves to 2.3% vs. estimates of 2.26% .  The FY18  Final dividend 25.06 CNY cents.
  • Chalco -2.4% suffered even more.  The aluminium (not a typo) giant’s FY NI is beneath the range.  The company has also elected to refrain from paying a dividend.
  • Conversely, NI at COSCO Ports +11.0% is above the range.  The company also indicates the current FY is off to a strong start and it is “well positioned.”
  • After the Asian markets closed, the BoJ indicates it will maintain its current asset purchase pace while Bank of Chine released results.
  • AstraZeneca -6.0% is paying Daiichi Sankyo +16.0% $6.9b to jointly develop an experimental breast and gastric cancer treatment.  Astra is raising $3.5b via a share placement to fund part of the deal.
  • H&M +12.6% rises following its earnings and certainly is seeing short covering.  The company’s Q1 PTP is ahead of consensus.  Additionally, margins are also better than feared.
  • Travel services company TUI -8.0% sees FY profits below expectations due to the Boeing 737 Max grounding.  An analyst at Bernstein ponders if this is a valid reason or an excuse!

On Our Side of the Pond

  • In a surprise move, Wells Fargo CEO Sloan announces he will step down from his post immediately.
  • Morgan Stanley President Kelleher will step down at the end of June.
  • The Lyft IPO is priced at the top end of the price range which had been lifted earlier this week: $72.  The shares commence trading today.
  • Following yesterday’s strong gains, Morgan Stanley is placing a block of Lululemon.
  • Late yesterday, Mexico left is benchmark rate unchanged at 8.25%.

Have a great weekend!

Markets and Macro

Markets Snapshot

Event Survey Actual Prior Revised
SK Industrial Production YoY Feb -0.50% -2.70% 0.10% -0.20%
SK Industrial Production SA MoM Feb -0.70% -2.60% 0.50% 0.20%
SK Cyclical Leading Index Change Feb -0.3 -0.4 -0.3
JN Jobless Rate Feb 2.50% 2.30% 2.50%
JN Job-To-Applicant Ratio Feb 1.63 1.63 1.63
JN Tokyo CPI YoY Mar 0.90% 0.90% 0.60%
JN Tokyo CPI Ex-Fresh Food YoY Mar 1.10% 1.10% 1.10%
JN Tokyo CPI Ex-Fresh Food, Energy YoY Mar 0.70% 0.70% 0.70%
JN Industrial Production MoM Feb P 1.40% 1.40% -3.40%
JN Industrial Production YoY Feb P -1.10% -1.00% 0.30%
JN Retail Trade YoY Feb 1.00% 0.40% 0.60%
JN Retail Sales MoM Feb P 1.00% 0.20% -2.30% -1.80%
JN Dept. Store, Supermarket Sales Feb -1.30% -1.80% -3.30%
UK GfK Consumer Confidence Mar -14 -13 -13
UK Lloyds Business Barometer Mar 10 4
AU Private Sector Credit MoM Feb 0.20% 0.30% 0.20%
AU Private Sector Credit YoY Feb 4.20% 4.20% 4.30%
JN Vehicle Production YoY Jan 7.00% -0.70%
JN Housing Starts YoY Feb -0.10% 4.20% 1.10%
JN Annualized Housing Starts Feb 0.929m 0.967m 0.872m
JN Construction Orders YoY Feb -3.40% 19.80%
GE Import Price Index MoM Feb 0.40% 0.30% -0.20%
GE Import Price Index YoY Feb 1.70% 1.60% 0.80%
GE Retail Sales MoM Feb -1.00% 0.90% 3.30% 2.80%
GE Retail Sales YoY Feb 2.10% 4.70% 2.60% 3.10%
UK Nationwide House PX MoM Mar 0.00% 0.20% -0.10% 0.00%
UK Nationwide House Px NSA YoY Mar 0.60% 0.70% 0.40%
FR Budget Balance YTD Feb -36.9b -17.3b
FR Consumer Spending MoM Feb 0.20% -0.40% 1.20% 1.40%
FR Consumer Spending YoY Feb -1.20% -1.80% 1.00% 1.10%
FR CPI EU Harmonized MoM Mar P 1.00% 0.90% 0.10%
FR CPI EU Harmonized YoY Mar P 1.40% 1.30% 1.60%
FR CPI MoM Mar P 0.90% 0.80% 0.00%
FR CPI YoY Mar P 1.20% 1.10% 1.30%
SP GDP QoQ 4Q F 0.70% 0.60% 0.70%
SP GDP YoY 4Q F 2.40% 2.30% 2.40%
SP Retail Sales YoY Feb 1.70% 1.70%
SP Retail Sales SA YoY Feb 1.00% 1.20% 0.80% 0.90%
HK Budget Balance HKD Feb -8.3b 49.1b
HK Money Supply M1 HKD YoY Feb -3.80% -5.20%
HK Money Supply M2 HKD YoY Feb 1.30% 1.40%
HK Money Supply M3 HKD YoY Feb 1.40% 1.50%
GE Unemployment Change (000’s) Mar -10k -7k -21k -20k
GE Unemployment Claims Rate SA Mar 4.90% 4.90% 5.00%
SP Current Account Balance Jan -1.5b 4.7b 4.2b
UK Net Consumer Credit Feb 0.9b 1.1b 1.1b 1.2b
UK Consumer Credit YoY Feb 6.30% 6.50%
UK Net Lending Sec. on Dwellings Feb 3.7b 3.5b 3.7b 3.6b
UK Mortgage Approvals Feb 65.0k 64.3k 66.8k 66.7k
UK Money Supply M4 MoM Feb 0.30% 0.20%
UK M4 Money Supply YoY Feb 1.20% 0.50%
UK M4 Ex IOFCs 3M Annualised Feb 2.30% 2.40%
UK GDP QoQ 4Q F 0.20% 0.20% 0.20%
UK GDP YoY 4Q F 1.30% 1.40% 1.30%
UK Total Business Investment QoQ 4Q F -1.40% -0.90% -1.40%
UK Total Business Investment YoY 4Q F -3.70% -2.50% -3.70%
UK Current Account Balance 4Q -22.9b -23.7b -26.5b -23.0b
IT CPI EU Harmonized MoM Mar P 2.10% 2.30% -0.20% -0.30%
IT CPI NIC incl. tobacco YoY Mar P 1.00% 1.00% 1.10% 1.00%
IT CPI EU Harmonized YoY Mar P 1.00% 1.10% 1.10%
IT CPI NIC incl. tobacco MoM Mar P 0.20% 0.30% 0.20% 0.10%
IT PPI MoM Feb -0.20% 0.00%
IT PPI YoY Feb 3.90% 4.40%
IN Eight Infrastructure Industries Feb 1.80%
CA GDP MoM Jan 0.10% -0.10%
CA GDP YoY Jan 1.30% 1.10%
US Personal Income Feb 0.30% -0.10%
US Personal Spending Jan 0.30% -0.50%
US Real Personal Spending Jan 0.30% -0.60%
US PCE Deflator MoM Jan 0.00% 0.10%
US PCE Deflator YoY Jan 1.40% 1.70%
CA Industrial Product Price MoM Feb -0.30%
CA Raw Materials Price Index MoM Feb 3.80%
US PCE Core MoM Jan 0.20% 0.20%
US PCE Core YoY Jan 1.90% 1.90%
US MNI Chicago PMI Mar 61 64.7
US New Home Sales Feb 620k 607k
US New Home Sales MoM Feb 2.10% -6.90%
US U. of Mich. Sentiment Mar F 97.8 97.8
US U. of Mich. Current Conditions Mar F 111.2
US U. of Mich. Expectations Mar F 89.2
US U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation Mar F 2.40%
US U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation Mar F 2.50%

About the Author

Matthew Kiselica headshot
MatthewKiselicaFVP,Manager of International Trading

Matthew Kiselica joined CAPIS in 2010 and has over twenty-five years of industry experience. Prior to CAPIS, he was vice president of Cazenove’s global sales trading desk in New York. Matthew is a board member for the National Psoriasis Foundation. He earned his bachelor’s degrees in fina...

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