09.23.2022 11 new Morning Note posts under Morning Note (10) and CAPIS Insights (1)

International Summary

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International Summary

"CAPIS Global Recap – 5/29/2019"

posted by Clayton Duff on 05/29/2019 at 6:56 am

by Clayton Duff

05/29/2019 at 6:56 am

Asian Headlines

After the disappointing finish in the States Asia closed mixed with a bias towards losses.  Like in the US, defensives saw selling with Consumer Staples and Utilities weighing on the Nikkei with Australia adding Industrials and Discretionary names to that list.  Shanghai managed a small gain with Staples conversely leading higher along with semiconductor-related names. Rare-earth names rallied with China threatening to cut the US off from supplies.  Semis fell elsewhere.   Bonds globally are bid higher after the US 10 year yield fell to levels not seen since September of 2017.  Post his trip to Japan, President Trump said higher tariffs may still be on tap.

The PBoC continued to inject funds, this time ~$36B, hoping to sooth minds.  Market confidence continues to wane with concern after the gov took control of Baoshang Bank.  The Yuan continued to weaken despite the US calling the country a currency manipulator in the Semiannual Currency Report issued by the US Treasury.  Vietnam, Malaysia, Italy, and Ireland though were added to a watch list while India and Switzerland were removed. Taiwan saw overseas investors continue selling, 15 straight sessions now with state-owned brokers on their 14th day of acquisitions.

Despite the selling the Nikkei a though remains well within recent ranges, again plumbing the support levels seen over the last year. while Australia’s ASX200 works to get back to 2007 level highs with the AUD continue to weaken:

European Headlines

Indices opened lower and trailed off from there with indices trying to rebound somewhat.  All sectors are to the downside with Basic Resources off over 2% with Arcelor Mittal weighing today.  Tech names are also weaker with sizable losses from Ericsson and AMS.  You will see that German employment ticked higher in May, up 60k after losing 12k prior, its 1st increase in ~2 years.   Their labor Agency though said an adjustment in data was the reason. French GDP YoY growth was inched up to 1.2% with Swedish GDP to 2.1%, ahead of expectations.  Note that Sweden closed at lunch today.

Arcelor Mittal -4.6% continues to collapse after announcing they will cut steelmaking production in France and Germany.  Weak demand was cited with higher iron ore prices no doubt to cut into profits soon.

Both Nokia and Ericsson are off 4.2% and 2.4% respectively despite Softbank naming them as Primary 5G partners.

To the upside Elekta +19% beat on 4Q #’s and expected FY20 ebita margins at 19%.

Also the upside ProSiebenSat is better by 3.7% with Mediaset -.5% taking a stake.  BB reports Mediaset used options to acquire the stake with the structure preventing the firm from having to register the stake purchases.

British American Tobacco -3.6% and Swedish Match -3% continue to weaken after industry data yesterday showed weaker volumes.

Note that tomorrow several countries including Denmark and Switzerland will be shut for Ascension Day.

Event Survey Actual Prior Revised
SK 32) Business Survey Manufacturing Jun 75 77
SK 33) Business Survey Non-Manufacturing Jun 72 77
UK 34) BRC Shop Price Index YoY May 0.80% 0.40%
NE 35) Producer Confidence Index May 4.7 6.7
FI 36) GDP QoQ 1Q 0.50% 0.20% 0.70% 0.50%
FI 37) GDP WDA YoY 1Q 1.20% 2.20%
DE 38) GDP SA QoQ 1Q P 0.30% 0.20% 0.80% 0.90%
DE 39) GDP SA YoY 1Q P 2.20% 2.60%
DE 40) Unemployment Rate Gross Rate Apr 3.70% 3.70%
DE 41) Unemployment Rate SA Apr 3.10% 3.10%
NO 42) Retail Sales W/Auto Fuel MoM Apr 0.30% 1.80% 0.60% 0.70%
NO 43) Credit Indicator Growth YoY Apr 5.80% 5.70% 5.80%
FR 44) PPI MoM Apr -0.60% 0.00%
FR 45) PPI YoY Apr 2.20% 1.90% 2.00%
FR 46) Consumer Spending MoM Apr 0.40% 0.80% -0.10% -0.30%
FR 47) Consumer Spending YoY Apr 0.60% 1.20% -1.90% -2.20%
FR 48) CPI EU Harmonized MoM May P 0.30% 0.20% 0.40%
FR 49) CPI EU Harmonized YoY May P 1.20% 1.10% 1.50%
FR 50) CPI MoM May P 0.30% 0.20% 0.30%
FR 51) CPI YoY May P 1.10% 1.00% 1.30%
FR 52) GDP QoQ 1Q F 0.30% 0.30% 0.30%
FR 53) GDP YoY 1Q F 1.10% 1.20% 1.10%
AS 54) PPI MoM Apr 0.20% -0.10%
AS 55) PPI YoY Apr 1.40% 1.50%
SP 56) Total Mortgage Lending YoY Mar 23.20% 31.20%
SP 57) House Mortgage Approvals YoY Mar 15.80% 9.20%
SZ 58) KOF Leading Indicator May 96 94.4 96.2
AS 59) GDP SA QoQ 1Q F 0.40% 0.30%
AS 60) GDP NSA YoY 1Q F 1.40% 1.10%
SW 61) Wages Non-Manual Workers YoY Mar 2.50% 2.40%
SW 62) GDP QoQ 1Q 0.20% 0.60% 1.20%
SW 63) GDP WDA YoY 1Q 1.70% 2.10% 2.40%
GE 64) Unemployment Change (000’s) May -7.5k 60.0k -12.0k
GE 65) Unemployment Claims Rate SA May 4.90% 5.00% 4.90%
IT 66) Consumer Confidence Index May 110 111.8 110.5 110.6
IT 67) Manufacturing Confidence May 100.4 102 100.6 100.8
IT 68) Economic Sentiment May 100.2 98.7 98.8
SZ 69) Credit Suisse Survey Expectations May -14.3 -7.7
IR 70) Retail Sales Volume MoM Apr 2.10% -0.80% -0.60%
IR 71) Retail Sales Volume YoY Apr 4.00% 4.90% 5.10%
BE 72) GDP SA QoQ 1Q F 0.20%
BE 73) GDP SA YoY 1Q F 1.10%

About the Author

Clayton Duff headshot
ClaytonDuffDir,Director of International Trading

Clayton Duff joined the firm in 2008. He has worked in the industry since 1994 and held various trading and sales positions before CAPIS, including four years as a trader for First Southwest. Clayton was promoted to manager of international trading in 2019. He earned his bachelor’s degree f...

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