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11.12.2019 11 new Morning Note posts under Morning Note (9), General (1), International Summary (1)

International Summary

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International Summary

"CAPIS Global Markets 8/27/2019"

posted by Matthew Kiselica on 08/27/2019 at 7:00 am

by Matthew Kiselica

08/27/2019 at 7:00 am

Markets Overview

Much like the US, Asian markets gapped higher at the open and held those levels for the balance of the session.  Yesterday’s more upbeat trade tweet by Pres. Trump swung sentiment back to positive allowing for US markets to recover some of Friday’s tariff-induced losses.  Volumes in various markets, especially China, ended elevated with an MSCI Rebalance on the close kicking up turnover.  Chinese A shares are seeing a weight increase from 10% to 15%.  India is higher again after yesterday’s strong finish.  PM Modi’s government received central bank funds which will partially be used to bolster reserves at state-run banks.  Hong Kong lagged on results and unrest.

Discretionary names led in Japan as retailers and autos strengthened.  Pres. Trump stated he is not considering tariffs against Japanese automakers, at this time.  Pharmaceuticals also ticked up with relief seen following a U.S. opioid related lawsuit.  (More on this in the On Our Side of the Pond section.)  Discretionary and IT names buoyed the mainland Chinese markets with both up well over a percent.  Similar gains were seen Down Under.

The Yuan is weaker on the day but stronger than its opening level from yesterday morning.  Yesterday, several headlines noted demand in China for the USD continues to rise as liabilities to foreigners increase.  Bloomberg indicates that in addition to the $2T in liabilities that overseas subsidiaries owe, a large portion of maturing debt is due next year.  Industrial Profits in China rallied 2.6% in July after a 3.1% pullback last month.

Europe initially was seeing a mild pullback.  Germany’s Final Q2 GDP remained down small, as initially estimated.  This raises concerns the EU’s largest economy will fall into recession.  Political settlement hopes are causing Milan to outperform.  While talks have concluded without a deal, it appears there is agreement Giuseppe Conte would be sole Prime Minister.  The region has advanced into the green on a report claiming China will relax some restrictions on auto purchases.

 

Corporate Headlines

  • On tough domestic vehicle competition, BAIC Motor’s -5.0% profits declined 26.0% YoY.  Revenues are better with its Mercedes Benz JV helping while their Hyundai JV was weaker.  Great Wall Motor +0.2% saw sharply lower NI as sales slowed.  The shares spent most of the session crossing back and forth across the flat line.
  • China Merchants Bank -0.7% is resolving concerns the US has regarding dealings with North Korea.  An officer of the firm stated it was not under investigation locally either in relation to AML or sanction laws.
  • AAC Tech -2.4% continues to slide following results.  The company is seeing downgrades on the Street including Bocom (reports today) and Jefferies.
  • Fosun Intl reported after the close.  The company notes caution due to the volatile markets.  However, its says its is “confident” of “stable growth.”
  • TechnipFMC +5.8% trades well following yesterday’s report the company will list as two separate companies.
  • Flughafen Zurich +3.3% ascends following results.  Both revenues and EBITDA are ahead of expectations.  Revisions to traffic guidance were better than feared.
  • Bunzl’s -0.1% H1 revenues are higher by +4.3% y/y and the company is increasing its interim dividend.  However, margins are worrisome.
  • Daily Mail & General +2.0% is selling its Genscape energy data unit for $364m.   Verisk Analytics is the purchaser.

On Our Side of the Pond

  • Johnson & Johnson is trading up pre-market.  In an opioid marketing trial, the company received a fine of “only” $572M fine an Oklahoma judge.  That was lower than anticipated.
  • Bank of Montreal reports EPS that are below the range.  The company’s U.S. banking unit saw slower growth during Q3.
  • EPS at Bank of Nova Scotia is 3 cents better than consensus.
  • JM Smucker is lowering its FY earnings guidance.

Markets & Macro

Event Survey Actual Prior Revised
SK Consumer Confidence Aug 92.5 95.9
AU ANZ Roy Morgan Weekly Consumer Confidence Index 25-Aug 114.1 112.8
JN PPI Services YoY Jul 0.60% 0.50% 0.70%
CH Industrial Profits YoY Jul 2.60% -3.10%
GE GDP SA QoQ 2Q F -0.10% -0.10% -0.10%
GE GDP NSA YoY 2Q F 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
GE GDP WDA YoY 2Q F 0.40% 0.40% 0.40%
GE Private Consumption QoQ 2Q 0.20% 0.10% 1.20% 0.80%
GE Government Spending QoQ 2Q 0.40% 0.50% -0.30% 0.80%
GE Capital Investment QoQ 2Q 0.10% -0.10% 1.10% 1.60%
FR Consumer Confidence Aug 102 102 102
FR Business Confidence Aug 104 105 105
FR Manufacturing Confidence Aug 101 102 101
FR Production Outlook Indicator Aug -1 2 0
FR Own-Company Production Outlook Aug 5 8 6 7
FR Survey of Industrial Investment (Table)
UK UK Finance Loans for Housing Jul 42854 43342 42653 42775
US House Price Purchase Index QoQ 2Q 0.30% 1.10%
US FHFA House Price Index MoM Jun 0.20% 0.10%
US S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City MoM SA Jun 0.15% 0.14%
US S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City YoY NSA Jun 2.30% 2.39%
US S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City NSA Index Jun 218.02 216.94
US S&P CoreLogic CS US HPI YoY NSA Jun 3.30% 3.43%
US S&P CoreLogic CS US HPI NSA Index Jun 209.66
US Richmond Fed Manufact. Index Aug -2 -12
US Conf. Board Consumer Confidence Aug 129 135.7
US Conf. Board Present Situation Aug 170.9
US Conf. Board Expectations Aug 112.2
UK BRC Shop Price Index YoY Aug -0.10%

 

About the Author

Matthew Kiselica headshot
MatthewKiselicaFVP,Manager of International Trading

Matthew Kiselica joined CAPIS in 2010 and has over twenty-five years of industry experience. Prior to CAPIS, he was vice president of Cazenove’s global sales trading desk in New York. Matthew is a board member for the National Psoriasis Foundation. He earned his bachelor’s degrees in fina...

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