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12.10.2019 11 new posts under Morning Note (9), International Summary (1), Press Releases (1)

International Summary

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International Summary

"CAPIS Global Recap – 9/30/2019"

posted by Clayton Duff on 09/30/2019 at 7:51 am

by Clayton Duff

09/30/2019 at 7:51 am

Asian Headlines

Asia wrapped up the last day of the quarter with most indices closing lower. With mainland China shut the balance of the week and next Monday for their National Day holiday, volume was surprisingly lower on the session, off over 40%.  Focus was on PMI readings out of China with the official reading beating estimates but still remaining in contraction.  On that Shanghai/Shenzhen both closed down ~1% on broad losses.  IT and Communication names led lower with Financials and Energy names also weaker. The Nikkei fared better but still was off with Energy name down over 3%.  Hong Kong finished up with Consumer Staples and Energy however leading on the day.

Back to China, Manufacturing PMI of 49.8 was ahead of the 49.6 estimate and a hair above the prior reading of 49.5.  New orders though moved into expansion territory despite the   The Caixin reading, which uses a smaller sample and focuses on smaller firms, ticked up to 51.4, vs the 50.2 estimates and 50.4 prior result. This is the second month of expansion and the highest reading since February of last year.  Official Non-manufacturing PMI held steady at 53.7.   On the trade war front the US Treasury earlier took off the table a headline that weighed on US indices Friday, that the US would block or delist Chinese firms from US markets.  TTN reported a US press story noted the Nasdaq is slowing approvals for Chinese IPO’s and upping restrictions however.

Back to economics Japanese Industrial Production fell 1.2% MoM in August, missing estimates but Vehicle Production though rose 11.8% vs the prior drop of 1.5%. Retail sales also ticked up.  Housing starts fell 7.1%, again weaker while Construction orders slumped 26%.  The BoJ amended its JGB purchase schedule today, upping purchases of 1 to 3 year maturities by ¥20B while reducing 3-5 year purchases by the same.

Note that Hong Kong will be shut tomorrow as well.

European Headlines

Europe is mostly up on the session with slight gains as sectors are evenly mixed with gains vs losses.  Construction and Banks are the two leaders while Tech names are off ~50bps.  Turnover on the Stoxx 600 is lower by 30%.  Several bits of eco are out including GDP in the UK that remained largely inline with estimates, down .2% QoQ.  German inflation remains flattish with unemployment contracting.  Unemployment for the region fell to 7.4%, its lowest level in 11 years.  Markit PMI readings ramp up tomorrow.

Bonds are trading a hair lower today with the UK 10 year gilt trading at 50bps and the German Bund at -.566%. Oil prices are lower as is Gold with Saudi Arabia calling for a non-military approach to Iran.

  • Ahead of a meeting today the board of Credit Suisse +1.2% is said to back CEO Thiam as they look for who to blame for a spy scandal.  Calls for his firing were post headlines that the firm had hired a private eye to follow a former employee that moved to UBS and was suspected of poaching employees.  Several large shareholders have also publicly said they support Thiam.
  • Steel producer Kloeckner +.7% shook off earlier weakness to trade higher post a news story in Handelsblatt noting merger talks between them and ThyssenKrupp -1.3% are over.  The story said the deal was nixed when Kloeckner became away of the firing of Thyssen’s CEO.
  • EDF +2.7% shut a British coal-burning power plant that has operated for 50 years, powering over 3M homes.  The unit produced more than 500 terawatt hours of electricity in its life.
  • Game-maker Funcom +19% with Tencent taking a 29% stake in the firm.

Event Survey Actual Prior Revised
SK 1) Industrial Production SA MoM Aug -1.00% -1.40% 2.60% 2.80%
SK 2) Industrial Production YoY Aug -0.20% -2.90% 0.60%
SK 3) Cyclical Leading Index Change Aug -0.1 -0.3
UK 4) Lloyds Business Barometer Sep 2 1
JN 5) Retail Sales YoY Aug 0.70% 2.00% -2.00%
JN 6) Retail Sales MoM Aug 2.40% 4.80% -2.30%
JN 7) Dept. Store, Supermarket Sales YoY Aug 0.80% 0.40% -4.80%
JN 8) Industrial Production MoM Aug P -0.50% -1.20% 1.30%
JN 9) Industrial Production YoY Aug P -3.90% -4.70% 0.70%
IR 10) Bank of Ireland Economic Pulse Sep 76.2 79.1
AU 11) Melbourne Institute Inflation MoM Sep 0.10% 0.00%
AU 12) Melbourne Institute Inflation YoY Sep 1.50% 1.70%
CH 13) Composite PMI Sep 53.1 53
CH 14) Manufacturing PMI Sep 49.6 49.8 49.5
CH 15) Non-manufacturing PMI Sep 53.9 53.7 53.8
AU 16) Private Sector Credit MoM Aug 0.30% 0.20% 0.20%
AU 17) Private Sector Credit YoY Aug 3.00% 2.90% 3.10%
CH 18) Caixin China PMI Mfg Sep 50.2 51.4 50.4
JN 19) Vehicle Production YoY Jul 11.80% -1.50%
JN 20) Housing Starts YoY Aug -5.90% -7.10% -4.10%
JN 21) Annualized Housing Starts Aug 0.901m 0.891m 0.910m
JN 22) Construction Orders YoY Aug -25.90% 26.90%
IN 23) Bloomberg Sept. India Economic Survey (Table)
DE 24) GDP SA QoQ 2Q F 0.90% 0.80%
DE 25) GDP SA YoY 2Q F 2.60% 2.30%
DE 26) Unemployment Rate Gross Rate Aug 3.80% 3.80%
DE 27) Unemployment Rate SA Aug 3.10% 3.10%
NO 28) Retail Sales W/Auto Fuel MoM Aug 0.00% 0.00% 0.80%
GE 29) Retail Sales MoM Aug 0.50% 0.50% -2.20% -0.80%
GE 30) Retail Sales NSA YoY Aug 2.90% 3.20% 4.40% 5.20%
FI 31) Trade Balance Jul F -448m -435m
GE 32) CPI Saxony MoM Sep -0.10% -0.20%
GE 33) CPI Saxony YoY Sep 1.00% 1.40%
SP 34) GDP QoQ 2Q F 0.50% 0.40% 0.50%
SP 35) GDP YoY 2Q F 2.30% 2.00% 2.30%
SZ 36) KOF Leading Indicator Sep 96.2 93.2 97 95.5
SP 37) CPI MoM Sep P 0.10% 0.00% -0.10%
SP 38) CPI YoY Sep P 0.30% 0.10% 0.30%
SP 39) CPI EU Harmonised MoM Sep P 0.50% 0.40% -0.10%
SP 40) CPI EU Harmonised YoY Sep P 0.30% 0.20% 0.40%
AS 41) PPI MoM Aug -0.30% 0.20%
AS 42) PPI YoY Aug -0.80% -0.20%
SW 43) Wages Non-Manual Workers YoY Jul 2.80% 2.60%
GE 44) Unemployment Change (000’s) Sep 5.0k -10.0k 4.0k 2.0k
GE 45) Unemployment Claims Rate SA Sep 5.00% 5.00% 5.00%
NO 46) Norges Bank Daily FX Purchases Oct -700m -700m
SZ 47) Total Sight Deposits CHF 27-Sep 592.2b 592.1b
SZ 48) Domestic Sight Deposits CHF 27-Sep 477.9b 476.2b
GE 49) CPI Brandenburg MoM Sep -0.10% -0.20%
GE 50) CPI Brandenburg YoY Sep 1.30% 1.40%
GE 51) CPI Hesse MoM Sep 0.00% -0.10%
GE 52) CPI Hesse YoY Sep 1.20% 1.30%
GE 53) CPI Bavaria MoM Sep 0.00% -0.10%
GE 54) CPI Bavaria YoY Sep 1.10% 1.40%
IT 55) Unemployment Rate Aug P 9.90% 9.50% 9.90% 9.80%
GE 56) CPI North Rhine Westphalia MoM Sep -0.10% 0.00%
GE 57) CPI North Rhine Westphalia YoY Sep 1.30% 1.50%
GE 58) CPI Baden Wuerttemberg MoM Sep 0.10% -0.20%
GE 59) CPI Baden Wuerttemberg YoY Sep 1.20% 1.50%
HK 60) Budget Balance HKD Aug -14.8b -12.3b
UK 61) GDP QoQ 2Q F -0.20% -0.20% -0.20%
UK 62) GDP YoY 2Q F 1.20% 1.30% 1.20%
UK 63) Total Business Investment QoQ 2Q F -0.50% -0.40% -0.50%
UK 64) Total Business Investment YoY 2Q F -1.60% -1.40% -1.60%
UK 65) Current Account Balance 2Q -19.0b -25.2b -30.0b -33.1b
UK 66) Net Consumer Credit Aug 0.9b 0.9b 0.9b 1.0b
UK 67) Consumer Credit YoY Aug 5.40% 5.50% 5.60%
UK 68) Net Lending Sec. on Dwellings Aug 4.2b 3.9b 4.6b 4.5b
UK 69) Mortgage Approvals Aug 66.5k 65.5k 67.3k 67.0k
UK 70) Money Supply M4 MoM Aug 0.40% 0.70%
UK 71) M4 Money Supply YoY Aug 3.20% 2.70%
UK 72) M4 Ex IOFCs 3M Annualised Aug 5.90% 4.40%
PO 73) CPI MoM Sep P 1.10% -0.10%
PO 74) CPI YoY Sep P -0.10% -0.10%
PO 75) CPI EU Harmonized MoM Sep P 1.40% -0.10%
PO 76) CPI EU Harmonized YoY Sep P -0.30% -0.10%
EC 77) Unemployment Rate Aug 7.50% 7.40% 7.50%
IC 78) Trade Balance Aug F -12030m -12200m
GR 79) Retail Sales YoY Jul -2.70% 2.30% 2.50%
IT 80) CPI NIC incl. tobacco MoM Sep P -0.30% -0.50% 0.50% 0.40%
IT 81) CPI NIC incl. tobacco YoY Sep P 0.60% 0.40% 0.50% 0.40%
IT 82) CPI EU Harmonized YoY Sep P 0.50% 0.30% 0.50%
BE 83) Unemployment Rate Aug 5.50% 5.70% 5.50%
IT 84) CPI EU Harmonized MoM Sep P 1.70% 1.50% 0.00%
HK 85) Money Supply M1 HKD YoY Aug -4.40% -3.00%
HK 86) Money Supply M3 HKD YoY Aug 1.90% 3.30%
HK 87) Money Supply M2 HKD YoY Aug 1.80% 3.30%
PO 88) Industrial Production MoM Aug -1.00% 3.50% 4.60%
PO 89) Industrial Production YoY Aug -4.80% -3.50% -2.40%
PO 90) Retail Sales MoM Aug 1.10% 0.00% 0.60%
PO 91) Retail Sales YoY Aug 5.10% 4.70% 5.10%
IN 92) Eight Infrastructure Industries Aug -0.50% 2.10% 2.70%
GE 93) CPI MoM Sep P 0.00% -0.20%
GE 94) CPI YoY Sep P 1.30% 1.40%
GE 95) CPI EU Harmonized MoM Sep P 0.00% -0.10%
GE 96) CPI EU Harmonized YoY Sep P 1.00% 1.00%

 

About the Author

Clayton Duff headshot
ClaytonDuffFVP,Senior International Trader

Clayton Duff joined the firm in 2008. He has worked in the industry since 1994 and held various trading and sales positions before CAPIS, including four years as a trader for First Southwest. He earned his bachelor’s degree from the University of Texas Arlington. Clayton maintains Series 3,...

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