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Morning Macro News

"Here we go!"

posted by CAPIS on 02/18/2016 at 7:19 am

by CAPIS

02/18/2016 at 7:19 am

Happy Thursday to you and Synthetic Friday to me!

Well my last comment from Thursday Feb 11 (read it again here) was perfect.

To wit, I wrote that I still feel the market is heading lower over the next few years, as the inevitable 200 SMA crossing below the 400 SMA would happen sometime this week perhaps, but that we were seeing some great buying at the new lows of year (LOY) and that a trade’s a trade so: Buy It.

Of course buying it would have worked swell as the SPX has risen 100+ points off those lows in 5 days!


Now we’ve had 3 up days in a row, made our double bottom “W” formation, and now must get above 1950 to “complete it” and see us move to test the 61.8% retracement level at 1962.31, the 50% retracement level at 1991.74, and of course 2000. The market has done VERY well off that double bottom as we’ve looked to make New Highs On Close (NHOC) on Friday and Tuesday, and almost the same yesterday (Wednesday). Typically you get a minor pull-back after 3 up days, so let’s see if that occurs today or if this positive mojo keeps us trucking..  THAT said… as of yesterday’s Close, the 200 SMA is approximately 3 points above the 400 SMA, and should be falling below it within the next few business days. As anyone who’s read what I’ve been espousing since December now, this historically has been a BIG technical negative occurrence.

I refuse to ignore it, and therefore will stick to my technical guns that this will see us drop over the next few months / years to the 1700’s, and potentially lower to 1576ish, if pressure is too much. I obviously don’t think you should get short yet, and would prefer some confirmation of a sort, but a “stupid” trading set-up would be to short the SPX at the Close the day the 200 officially drops below the 400. If you look back to 2008, you’ll see that it happened in April 2008 with price below the Cross, and in May 2008 price tested the 200 & 400 SMA’s from below in the 1400 areas… before beginning its massive decline lower into the March 2009 lows of 666. If this same pattern happens this year as well, then you can look for price to come test above 2000 sometime in March, testing the 200 & 400 SMA’s, and then looking to move lower going into the summer months.

SPX Current


Good Luck and have a most excellent weekend.

Per this morning’s Bloomberg Daybook:  (Bloomberg) — European shares rise, with the Stoxx Europe 600 index extending a two-week high. U.S. stock index futures little changed, Asian shares rise. Wal-Mart, Duke Energy, Perrigo to report earnings.

WHAT TO WATCH:

  • Starboard Said to Take Initial Steps for Proxy Battle With Yahoo
  • Ingram Micro to Be Bought by Tianjin Tianhai for $6 Billion
  • PBOC to Conduct Open-Market Operations Every Working Day
  • Bullard Calls Raising Rates Unwise as Inflation Falls Short
  • Oil Extends Gain After Report of U.S. Crude Inventory Decline
  • Nestle Sees Sales Slowdown Extending Into ‘16 on Price Pressure
  • Vodafone to Raise About $4.1 Billion Selling Convertible Bonds
  • Boeing Engineers Approve 6-Year Pact, Avert Labor Showdown
  • Credit Suisse Americas ‘One Bank’ Head Leaving Amid U.S. Retreat
  • ESPN Plans Thinner Bundle of Channels as It Keeps Package Model
  • Gasoline Is Trading as If U.S. Nearing Recession, Goldman Says
  • Apple Gains Silicon Valley’s Backing in Government Fight
  • Swiss Watch Exports Drop as Slowing Economies Curb Demand
  • Obama Said to Plan Cuba Visit in March 55 Years After Ties Cut
  • Chevron Indonesia Plans to Cut at Least 1,200 Jobs: Kontan

EARNINGS:

  • Leidos (LDOS) 6am, $0.66
  • Perrigo (PRGO) 6am, $1.93
  • Canadian Tire (CTC/A CN) 6am, C$2.61
  • Dish Network (DISH) 6:05am, $0.46 – Preview
  • Fortis (FTS CN) 6:30am, C$0.46
  • NiSource (NI) 6:30am, $0.30
  • Columbia Pipeline Partners (CPPL) 6:30am, $0.20
  • Genesis Energy (GEL) 6:30am, $0.53
  • Starwood Hotels (HOT) 6:30am, $0.79
  • Cabela’s (CAB) 6:30am, $1.22
  • Cott (BCB CN) 6:30am, ($0.02)
  • Denbury Resources (DNR) 6:30am, $0.01
  • Laboratory Corp. (LH) 6:45am, $1.99
  • Travelport Worldwide (TVPT) 6:45am, $0.18
  • Primero Mining (P CN) 6:50am, ($0.02)
  • Entergy (ETR) 7am, $1.45
  • Dana Holding (DAN) 7am, $0.38
  • Finning Intl (FTT CN) 7am, C$0.35
  • Wal-Mart Stores (WMT) 7am, $1.46 – Preview
  • MGM Resorts (MGM) 7am, $0.08
  • Duke Energy (DUK) 7am, $0.91
  • Discovery Communications (DISCA) 7am, $0.44
  • Agios Pharmaceuticals (AGIO) 7:01am, ($0.50)
  • Aaron’s (AAN) 7:15am, $0.38
  • Huntington Ingalls (HII) 7:15am, $2.36
  • Valspar (VAL) 7:30am, $0.65
  • RioCan Real Estate Investment (REI-U CN) 7:30am, C$0.43
  • Waste Management (WM) 7:30am, $0.68
  • Hyatt Hotels (H) 7:30am, $0.24
  • Scana (SCG) 7:30am, $0.75
  • SodaStream Intl (SODA) 7:30am, $0.18
  • Atlas Air Worldwide (AAWW) 7:30am, $1.52
  • Ultra Petroleum (UPL) 7:45am, ($0.16)
  • Welltower (HCN) 7:45am, $1.12
  • Wabtec (WAB) 7:55am, $1.05
  • Momenta Pharmaceuticals (MNTA) 8am, ($0.04)
  • Capital Power (CPX CN) 8am, C$0.32
  • Six Flags Entertainment (SIX) 8am, ($0.03)
  • Healthcare Trust (HTA) 8am, $0.40
  • PG&E (PCG) 8:01am, $0.44
  • Melco Crown (MPEL) 8:10am, $0.06
  • TransAlta (TA CN) 8:15am, C$0.12
  • Toro Co (TTC) 8:30am, $0.58
  • CVR Energy (CVI) 8:30am, ($0.33)
  • Virgin America (VA) 8:30am, $1.21
  • Syntel (SYNT) 8:30am, $0.75
  • Allete (ALE) 8:30am, $0.77
  • InterDigital (IDCC) 8:30am, $0.81
  • Reliance Steel & Aluminum (RS) 8:50am, $0.82
  • Choice Hotels Intl (CHH) 9am, $0.47
  • Pan American Silver (PAA CN) Bef-Mkt, ($0.09)
  • Federal Home Loan Mortgage (FMCC) Bef-mkt, $0.61 – Preview

PM EARNS

  • Century Aluminum (CENX) 4pm, ($0.61)
  • Chefs’ Warehouse (CHEF) 4:01pm, $0.25
  • Applied Materials (AMAT) 4:01pm, $0.26 – Preview
  • Allscripts Healthcare (MDRX) 4:01pm, $0.13
  • Equinix (EQIX) 4:01pm, $1.20
  • CalAtlantic (CAA) 4:02pm, $0.81
  • Ironwood Pharmaceuticals (IRWD) 4:03pm, ($0.16)
  • BJ’s Restaurants (BJRI) 4:03pm, $0.39
  • Fluor (FLR) 4:05pm, $0.93
  • Trinity Industries (TRN) 4:05pm, $1.09
  • Nordstrom (JWN) 4:05pm, $1.21 – Preview
  • LaSalle Hotel (LHO) 4:05pm, $0.64
  • Prothena (PRTA) 4:05pm, ($0.81)
  • Arista Networks (ANET) 4:05pm, $0.61
  • Flowserve (FLS) 4:07pm, $0.92
  • Boston Beer (SAM) 4:15pm, $1.13
  • WageWorks (WAGE) 4:15pm, $0.28
  • Ambac Financial (AMBC) 4:15pm, $1.15
  • AMN Healthcare Services (AHS) 4:15pm, $0.41
  • CubeSmart (CUBE) 4:45pm, $0.33
  • American Railcar (ARII) 4:45pm, $1.60
  • First Quantum Minerals (FM CN) 5pm, $0.05 – Preview
  • Lundin Mining (LUN CN) 5:30pm, ($0.07)
  • Consolidated Edison (ED) 6pm, $0.54
  • Yamana Gold (YRI CN) 6:11pm, ($0.02) – Preview

ECONOMY:

  • 8:30am: Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook, Feb., est. -3 (prior -3.5)
  • 8:30am: Initial Jobless Claims, Feb. 13, est. 275k (prior 269k)
  • 9:45am: Bloomberg Economic Expectations, Feb. (prior 47)
  • 10am: Leading Index, Jan., est. -0.2% (prior -0.2%)
  • 10am: Freddie Mac mortgage rates
  • 10:30am: EIA natural-gas storage change
  • 11am: DOE energy inventories
  • 1pm: U.S. to sell $7b 30Y TIPS
  • 3:30pm: Fed’s Williams speaks in Los Angeles

GOVERNMENT/POLITICS:

  • House, Senate not in session
  • 9am: FHFA Director Mel Watt speaks at Bipartisan Policy Center on the Federal Home Loan bank system, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac
  • 10am: FERC meeting on administrative matters, hydro-energy, gas and energy supplier certificates
  • 1:30pm: HHS Sec. Sylvia Mathews Burwell holds press conference in Flint, Mich., on federal response to tainted water crisis
  • U.S. ELECTION WRAP: As Trump, Cruz Scuffle, Rubio Wins Haley

 

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