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Morning Macro News

"Today the 200 will drop below the 400!"

posted by CAPIS on 02/24/2016 at 7:05 am

by CAPIS

02/24/2016 at 7:05 am

It’s official y’awl. As I’ve been writing for months now, the inevitable technical bad mojo moment in time is nigh.

Yesterday, as you can see in the below chart of the SPX, the 200 day SMA closed at 2029.06, with the 400 SMA closing at 2029.05.

THIS, ladies and gents, is the last time you’ll see the 200 above the 400 for some time, in my estimation. The 400 SMA is flattish now, with the 200 SMA downward sloping and looking to make further declines as the lower price levels take over the higher price level history each day.


As I stated in last Thursday’s comment, I’d like to see the SPX rise above 1950 to test 2000 AND the 200 SMA from below, like it did in May 2008… but we may not see anything like that at all. Oil is pushing banks and equities lower, as global growth slowdown / China / whatever is the trendy news of the day gives shorts a big reason to lean more shorty. 

As I’ve said, if you were to get short the SPX “today” with the 200 falling below the 400 SMA’s, this has historically been a good technical moment (for the long-term) but you might also be squeezed a bit if the short-term traders bid up the SPX as it looks for ST support near 1900. 

In either case, you know my medium-term to long-term inklings: any move higher for SPX is simply another chance to get LT shorty (or hedge longs… or position defensively… or take some LT gains off the table, etc.). 

Now for Mark’s Day-trade of the day! ESH6 is down -20 points to a Globex LOD of 1896, and currently (as of this writing) just below S2 (1898.33) around 1898. I’m a negative Nancy on the LT technical prospects for our market, but with this big a move pre-market, I’m a buyer “down here” below 1900 on ES looking for a ST pop (would do it pre-market if I could!). 1920 held on SPX yesterday for support, but pre-market indicates we’ll gap lower to the 1900ish level on SPX. I’d buy for testing purposes, and look to 1915-1920 on SPX from below. The 50 SMA held SPX in check on Monday, and oil / BREXIT et al will continue to add negative juju to this disco, but a trade’s a trade.

SPX Current


That’s it! Good luck out there, and hold onto your helmets! It’s gonna get bumpy…

Per this morning’s Bloomberg Daybook: (Bloomberg) — European and Asian shares fall, led by energy and basic resources stocks amid oil price decline. U.S. stock index futures also drop. Dollar strengthens against euro. Lowe’s, TJX, Target, Salesforce, HP to report earnings. Fed’s Bullard, Kaplan, Lacker to speak.

WHAT TO WATCH:

  • Global Stocks Extend Declines With Oil; Pound Slips Below $1.40
  • Wal-Mart Sued Over Parmesan Cheese With Wood Pulp Filler
  • Monster Beverage Agrees to Buy Flavor Supplier for $690 Million
  • JPMorgan Faces Probes of Proprietary Funds After SEC Settlement
  • IBM Paid $1.3 Billion to Acquire Cleversafe in Hybrid-Cloud Push
  • Wanda to Announce ‘Major Deal’ This Week, Chairman Wang Says
  • Carlyle Group Buys Majority Stake in Outsourcing Firm Digitex
  • Hong Kong Expects Slowing Economic Growth as Tourism Slumps
  • China Opens Bond Market to Foreigners as Outflows Weaken Yuan
  • Caesars Entertainment Loss Narrows as Hotel Room Rates Rise
  • Sports Authority Is Now Technically in Default, Moody’s Says
  • Trump’s Decisive Nevada Win Pushes Him Nearer to Nomination
  • Sharp Said to Favor Finances Over Politics in Bailout Vote
  • Delta Lloyd Shares Surge After Rights Offer Cut to $715m
  • Airbus Profit Gains 1.6% on A350 Ramp-Up, Break-Even on A380
  • Standard Bank Sees Full-Year Earnings Rising as Much as 35%
  • Peugeot Promises New Profit Plan With Restructuring Complete
  • U.S. Class Action Suits to Hold VW Executives Liable: Bild
  • Zynga Puts San Francisco Headquarters up For Sale: SF Biz Times
  • Iran’s Choice in Talks With Boeing Said to Be 737, Tasnim Says
  • Yahoo Holder Said to Urge Co. to Move Quickly With Auction: Rtrs
  • Bayer Names Werner Baumann to Succeed Marijn Dekkers as CEO
  • BTG Said Close to Announcing Sale of Pan Assets to CNP: Valor
  • New York Asks SEC to Force Climate Vote Onto Exxon Proxy: Rtrs
  • Korea to Notify Prosecutors of Elliott’s Rule Violation: Yonhap
EARNINGS (all times ET, times are approximate):
  • EchoStar (SATS) Bef-Mkt, $0.37
  • AES Corp (AES) 6am, $0.33
  • Mack-Cali (CLI) 6am, $0.46
  • Encana (ECA CN) 6am, $0.01 – Preview
  • Lowe’s Cos (LOW) 6am, $0.59 – Preview
  • Memorial Resource (MRD) 6am, $0.10
  • Royal Bank of Canada (RY CN) 6am, C$1.66 – Preview
  • HollyFrontier (HFC) 6:15am, $0.30
  • Vereit (VER) 6:18am, $0.20
  • Progressive Waste Solutions (BIN CN) 6:30am, $0.31
  • Cinemark (CNK) 6:30am, $0.47
  • Lithia Motors (LAD) 6:55am, $1.64
  • Chemours Co (CC) 7am, $0.10
  • Calfrac Well Services (CFW CN) 7am, (C$0.38)
  • Gildan Activewear (GIL CN) 7am, $0.28
  • Mobileye (MBLY) 7am, $0.14
  • New Residential Investment (NRZ) 7am, $0.49
  • Rice Energy (RICE) 7am, ($0.01)
  • Steven Madden (SHOO) 7am, $0.43
  • Shutterstock (SSTK) 7am, $0.33
  • Chesapeake Energy (CHK) 7:01am, ($0.16) – Preview
  • Clean Harbors (CLH) 7:30am, $0.13
  • Ophthotech (OPHT) 7:30am, ($1.29)
  • Realogy (RLGY) 7:30am, $0.26
  • Sinclair Broadcast (SBGI) 7:30am, $0.66
  • Ares Capital (ARCC) 8am, $0.39
  • Comstock Resources (CRK) 8am, ($1.16)
  • DineEquity (DIN) 8am, $1.32
  • HSN (HSNI) 8am, $1.04
  • Shell Midstream Partners LP (SHLX) 8am, $0.35
  • Target (TGT) 8am, $1.54 – Preview
  • TJX Cos (TJX) 8:35am, $0.94
  • Eaton Vance (EV) 9am, $0.52

PM EARNS

  • Whiting Petroleum (WLL) 4pm, ($0.30)
  • Amsurg (AMSG) 4pm, $1.04
  • Spirit Realty Capital (SRC) 4pm, $0.22
  • Green Dot (GDOT) 4:01pm, $0.03
  • Vipshop (VIPS) 4:01pm, $0.16
  • Tumi (TUMI) 4:01pm, $0.32
  • Salesforce.com (CRM) 4:05pm, $0.19 – Preview
  • Antero Resources (AR) 4:05pm, $0.14
  • HP (HPQ) 4:05pm, $0.36 – Preview
  • Annaly Capital Mgmt (NLY) 4:05pm, $0.28
  • Western Gas Partners (WES) 4:05pm, $0.35
  • Fleetmatics (FLTX) 4:05pm, $0.39
  • Tandem Diabetes Care (TNDM) 4:05pm, ($0.51)
  • Imax (IMAX) 4:05pm, $0.42
  • Matador Resources (MTDR) 4:06pm, $0.00
  • Newfield Exploration (NFX) 4:07pm, $0.02
  • Continental Resources (CLR) 4:10pm, ($0.21)
  • Alon USA Energy (ALJ) 4:15pm, ($0.18)
  • CoreLogic (CLGX) 4:15pm, $0.31
  • Ferro (FOE) 4:15pm, $0.16
  • Rocket Fuel (FUEL) 4:15pm, ($0.19)
  • Globus Medical (GMED) 4:15pm, $0.30
  • L Brands (LB) 4:15pm, $2.05
  • La Quinta (LQ) 4:15pm, $0.06
  • Oasis Petroleum (OAS) 4:15pm, $0.06
  • QEP Resources (QEP) 4:15pm, ($0.12)
  • Relypsa (RLYP) 4:15pm, ($1.35)
  • WPX Energy (WPX) 4:15pm, ($0.19)
  • XPO Logistics (XPO) 4:15pm, ($0.05)
  • Transocean (RIG) 4:20pm, $0.65
  • CoStar (CSGP) 4:25pm, $0.82
  • BWX Technologies (BWXT) 4:30pm, $0.34
  • Churchill Downs (CHDN) 4:30pm, $0.36
  • Concho Resources (CXO) 4:30pm, $0.03
  • Masonite Intl (DOOR) 4:30pm, $0.39
  • DCP Midstream Partners (DPM) 4:30pm, $0.70
  • Dynegy (DYN) 4:30pm, ($0.86)
  • Summit Hotel Properties (INN) 4:30pm, $0.23
  • Parsley Energy (PE) 4:30pm, ($0.07)
  • Photronics (PLAB) 4:30pm, $0.16
  • American States Water (AWR) 4:45pm, $0.30
  • RSP Permian (RSPP) 4:45pm, $0.06
  • Sunoco Logistics Partners (SXL) 4:45pm, $0.29
  • HudBay Minerals (HBM CN) 4:50pm, $0.07
  • American Water Works (AWK) 5pm, $0.55
  • Energy Transfer Equity (ETE) 5pm, $0.37
  • Westar Energy (WR) 5pm, $0.36
  • Great Plains Energy (GXP) 5:05pm, $0.17
  • Pengrowth Energy (PGF CN) 5:05pm, (C$0.01)
  • Sturm Ruger & Co (RGR) 5:05pm, $0.75
  • Centerra Gold (CG CN) 5:15pm, $0.04
  • Curtiss-Wright (CW) 5:15pm, $1.21
  • Haverty Furniture Cos (HVT) 6pm, $0.40
  • NetEase (NTES) 6pm, $2.47
  • Northland Power (NPI CN) 7:50pm, C$0.09
  • ClubCorp (MYCC) Aft-Mkt, $0.12
  • Trican Well Service (TCW CN) Aft-Mkt, (C$0.25)
ECONOMY:
  • 7am: MBA Mortgage Applications, Feb. 19 (prior 8.2%)
  • 8am: Fed’s Lacker speaks in Baltimore
  • 9:45am: Markit US Services PMI, Feb. P, est. 53.5 (prior 53.2)
    • Markit US Composite PMI, Feb. P (prior 53.2)
  • 10am: New Home Sales, Jan., est. 520k (prior 544k)
  • 10:30am: DOE Energy Inventories
  • 11:30am: U.S. to sell $13b 2Y FRN in reopening
  • 1pm: U.S. to sell $34b 5Y notes
  • 1:15pm: Fed’s Kaplan speaks in Dallas
  • 7pm: Fed’s Bullard speaks in New York
GOVERNMENT/POLITICS:
  • Obama hosts Jordan’s King Abdullah II, time TBA
  • 10am: House Ways and Means Cmte hearing on Global Tax Environment in 2016, Implications for Intl Tax Reform
  • 10am: House Financial Services subcmte hearing on Impact of Dodd-Frank Act/Basel III on Fixed Income Mkt, Securitizations
  • 12pm: House meets to consider 9 bills related to use of pepper spray in prisons, water rights, historic monuments and access to recreational lands
  • FY2017 budget request hearings/testimonies:
    • 9:30am: U.S. Forest Service chief Tom Tidwell testifies before House Appropriations subcmte
    • 10am: HHS Sec. Sylvia Mathews Burwell before House Energy and Commerce subcmte
    • 10am: Sec. of State Kerry before House Appropriations subcmte hearing; 2pm: Before Senate Appropriations subcmte
    • 10am: Homeland Security Sec. Jeh Johnson before House Appropriations subcmte
    • 10:30am: Attn General Loretta Lynch before House Appropriation subcmte
    • 10:30am: Acting Army Sec. Patrick Murphy before Senate Appropriations subcmte
    • 2pm: Transportation Sec. Anthony Foxx before House Appropriations subcmte
    • 2:15pm: Homeland Security Sec. Jeh Johnson before Senate Appropriations subcmte

 

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