International Summary

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European Close June 15, 2015

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International Summary

posted by Matthew Kiselica on 06/15/2015 at 11:43 am
by Matthew Kiselica on 06/15/2015

The fears of a “Grexit” kept Europe in the red throughout the session.  The Eurostoxx600 traded through its daily S2 on several occasions before staging a rally with about a half hour to go.  After 15 minutes of steady gains, the market resumed sell mode and the index closed below S2 (see Eurostoxx600 chart below) while the rest of the major indices closed at or near their respective lows of the day.  All sectors were firmly in the red with media the only one to NOT fall by 1% on the day and that was just barely.  Autos, healthcare, financials and banks pulled back by over 2%. Volumes were lower by c. 15.0%. ECB President Draghi helped the markets’ brief bounce while indicating it was still possible for the ELA ceiling to be increased and for that matter there is no ultimate cap to the facility provided Greek banks “remain solvent.”  However, he did declare “the balls lies squarely in the camp of the Greek government to take necessary steps” for an agreement to be reached.   Greece saw its sovereign 10 yr. yield soar over 70 bps while the most of the rest of the peripheral nations saw their’s advance 15-20…

The fears of a “Grexit” kept Europe in the red throughout the session.  The Eurostoxx600 traded through its daily S2 on several occasions before staging a rally with about a half hour to go.  After 15 minutes of steady gains, the market resumed sell mode and the index closed below S2 (see Eurostoxx600 chart below) while the rest of the major indices closed at or near their respective lows of the day.  All sectors were firmly in the red with media the only one to NOT fall by 1% on the day and that was just barely.  Autos, healthcare, financials and banks pulled back by over 2%. Volumes were lower by c. 15.0%. ECB President Draghi helped the markets’ brief bounce while indicating it was still possible for the ELA ceiling to be increased and for that matter there is no ultimate cap to the facility provided Greek banks “remain solvent.”  However, he did declare “the balls lies squarely in the camp of the Greek government to take necessary steps” for an agreement to be reached.   Greece saw its sovereign 10 yr. yield soar over 70 bps while the most of the rest of the peripheral nations saw their’s advance 15-20…

CAPIS International Summary June 15, 2015

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International Summary

posted by Clayton Duff on 06/15/2015 at 6:43 am
by Clayton Duff on 06/15/2015

Asian Headlines A negative start to the week with markets focused on a breakdown in talks Sunday concerning Greece.   Sector-wise Consumer Discretionary names led lower in HK with IT, Healthcare, Telecoms, and Energy all weaker by at least 3% in Shanghai. Chinese stocks fell as the government did not lower the reserve requirement ratio over the weekend as investors had hoped. Also, weighing China was 25 IPO’s this week which will draw money away from current trading names. Margin debt last week leapt again, to CNY2.22T or up 2.3% WoW, with regulators again issuing warnings. Per TTN, a local story noted the government will merge 5 iron/steel SOEs into 2-3 companies to help ease overcapacity. Prada -4.9% reported profits that were well below forecast citing weak demand by Chinese shoppers. For 1Q, NI fell 44% and were roughly half the estimate expected.  Women’s footwear retailer Belle International fell 6.8% post reporting 1Q sales faling 7.8%. Japan was a relative outperformer, closing flat with the ¥ slightly weaker on the session.  The Japanese government has decided to hold off on the sale of its remaining stake in Japan Tobacco -.9%.    Isuzu Motors +1.8% rallied post an announcement they will join with GM…

Asian Headlines A negative start to the week with markets focused on a breakdown in talks Sunday concerning Greece.   Sector-wise Consumer Discretionary names led lower in HK with IT, Healthcare, Telecoms, and Energy all weaker by at least 3% in Shanghai. Chinese stocks fell as the government did not lower the reserve requirement ratio over the weekend as investors had hoped. Also, weighing China was 25 IPO’s this week which will draw money away from current trading names. Margin debt last week leapt again, to CNY2.22T or up 2.3% WoW, with regulators again issuing warnings. Per TTN, a local story noted the government will merge 5 iron/steel SOEs into 2-3 companies to help ease overcapacity. Prada -4.9% reported profits that were well below forecast citing weak demand by Chinese shoppers. For 1Q, NI fell 44% and were roughly half the estimate expected.  Women’s footwear retailer Belle International fell 6.8% post reporting 1Q sales faling 7.8%. Japan was a relative outperformer, closing flat with the ¥ slightly weaker on the session.  The Japanese government has decided to hold off on the sale of its remaining stake in Japan Tobacco -.9%.    Isuzu Motors +1.8% rallied post an announcement they will join with GM…

CAPIS European Close June 12, 2015

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International Summary

posted by Matthew Kiselica on 06/12/2015 at 12:09 pm
by Matthew Kiselica on 06/12/2015

A weaker U.S. open coupled with raising concerns of a “Grexit” kept the region firmly in the red during afternoon trading.  Following the IMF negotiating team leaving Brussels without an agreement, several reports added to the negative sentiment including Germany examining possible capital controls and the Eurogroup considering a “Plan B.”   The markets hit their respective lows with about a half an hour to go before seeing a modest bounce into the close.  Greek banks saw heavy selling and the market fell over 5% today following yesterday’s 8% gain.  All sectors were red with energy, chemicals, personal goods and healthcare all pulling back by 1% or more.  Telecoms and basic resources experienced modest declines.  Volumes were c. 15.o% lower but that was an improvement from earlier in the session. Sovereign yields had divergent results with the Greek 10 yr yield advancing over 50 bps while the PIIGS and other peripheral yields seeing gains between 7-15 bps. Conversely, “core”  European yields benefited from a flight to safety.  (See Tables Below)   The € saw volatility falling to 1.1151 a few hours into the session before steadily rallying and trading above 1.127 currently. The £ had gained from the around the point of the U.S. open…

A weaker U.S. open coupled with raising concerns of a “Grexit” kept the region firmly in the red during afternoon trading.  Following the IMF negotiating team leaving Brussels without an agreement, several reports added to the negative sentiment including Germany examining possible capital controls and the Eurogroup considering a “Plan B.”   The markets hit their respective lows with about a half an hour to go before seeing a modest bounce into the close.  Greek banks saw heavy selling and the market fell over 5% today following yesterday’s 8% gain.  All sectors were red with energy, chemicals, personal goods and healthcare all pulling back by 1% or more.  Telecoms and basic resources experienced modest declines.  Volumes were c. 15.o% lower but that was an improvement from earlier in the session. Sovereign yields had divergent results with the Greek 10 yr yield advancing over 50 bps while the PIIGS and other peripheral yields seeing gains between 7-15 bps. Conversely, “core”  European yields benefited from a flight to safety.  (See Tables Below)   The € saw volatility falling to 1.1151 a few hours into the session before steadily rallying and trading above 1.127 currently. The £ had gained from the around the point of the U.S. open…

CAPIS International Summary June 12, 2015

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International Summary

posted by Clayton Duff on 06/12/2015 at 7:02 am
by Clayton Duff on 06/12/2015

Asian Headlines China closed out the week with strength as most of the other major markets finished near flattish levels.  Consumer staples and Industrials led in Hong Kong with I.T an outperformer in Japan and South Korea. Shanghai and the Hang Seng moved higher today post the better New Yuan loan and M2 money supply data released after the close yesterday.  HSBC economists noted loan growth is on the upswing.  A local press report added that some banks in Shenzhen have increased mortgage rates on signs of housing inflation moving higher.  China Life Insurance closed up 2.3% after they noted May premiums climbed 30% with gains of 19% for the year.  Ping An +2.8% also traded higher with life premiums up 19% vs gains of 10.5% YoY. Post the close, Hong Kong reported Industrial Production that fell 1.5%, ahead of the 3.6% fall prior. Keep an eye out this weekend with speculation ticking up that the PBoC could again cut their reserve ratio. The ¥ weakened over the last hour despite the BOJ’s Harada noting additional stimulus could be delayed even if inflation does not hit their 2% target, taking into effect rising price trends.   Osaka Gas -3.3% and Electric…

Asian Headlines China closed out the week with strength as most of the other major markets finished near flattish levels.  Consumer staples and Industrials led in Hong Kong with I.T an outperformer in Japan and South Korea. Shanghai and the Hang Seng moved higher today post the better New Yuan loan and M2 money supply data released after the close yesterday.  HSBC economists noted loan growth is on the upswing.  A local press report added that some banks in Shenzhen have increased mortgage rates on signs of housing inflation moving higher.  China Life Insurance closed up 2.3% after they noted May premiums climbed 30% with gains of 19% for the year.  Ping An +2.8% also traded higher with life premiums up 19% vs gains of 10.5% YoY. Post the close, Hong Kong reported Industrial Production that fell 1.5%, ahead of the 3.6% fall prior. Keep an eye out this weekend with speculation ticking up that the PBoC could again cut their reserve ratio. The ¥ weakened over the last hour despite the BOJ’s Harada noting additional stimulus could be delayed even if inflation does not hit their 2% target, taking into effect rising price trends.   Osaka Gas -3.3% and Electric…

European Close June 11th, 2015

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International Summary

posted by Matthew Kiselica on 06/11/2015 at 11:32 am
by Matthew Kiselica on 06/11/2015

Europe had been trading well reaching the highs of the day c. 30 minutes after the U.S. open.  However, the markets came under selling pressure after an IMF spokesperson declared the organization had “major issues with Greece in key areas.”   At this point, sellers grabbed control of the market and all of the major indices moved lower.  The Eurostoxx600 retreated 1.0% before paring losses (see intraday chart). Greece was already closed when the headlines hit the tape and was +8.0% on the day with banks leading following yesterday’s increase of the ELA program by the ECB. The € wobbled on the news but is currently trading higher than at the time of the announcement. Sovereign yields rose but then managed to recover with most countries seeing improvement for the day between 7 to 10 bps.  Overall, personal goods and insurance gained 1% followed by retail and food/beverages.  Basic resources and telecoms were marginally weaker.  Volumes were a touch lower on the day but increased following the IMF statements. The afternoon saw reports allege FiatChrylser +1.4% CEO Marchionne is considering other merger options as chances of a deal with GM +0.7% are said to be “waning.”  Peugeot +2.6% is reputed to…

Europe had been trading well reaching the highs of the day c. 30 minutes after the U.S. open.  However, the markets came under selling pressure after an IMF spokesperson declared the organization had “major issues with Greece in key areas.”   At this point, sellers grabbed control of the market and all of the major indices moved lower.  The Eurostoxx600 retreated 1.0% before paring losses (see intraday chart). Greece was already closed when the headlines hit the tape and was +8.0% on the day with banks leading following yesterday’s increase of the ELA program by the ECB. The € wobbled on the news but is currently trading higher than at the time of the announcement. Sovereign yields rose but then managed to recover with most countries seeing improvement for the day between 7 to 10 bps.  Overall, personal goods and insurance gained 1% followed by retail and food/beverages.  Basic resources and telecoms were marginally weaker.  Volumes were a touch lower on the day but increased following the IMF statements. The afternoon saw reports allege FiatChrylser +1.4% CEO Marchionne is considering other merger options as chances of a deal with GM +0.7% are said to be “waning.”  Peugeot +2.6% is reputed to…

CAPIS International Summary June 11, 2015

News Trading Desk International Summary

International Summary

posted by Clayton Duff on 06/11/2015 at 6:56 am
by Clayton Duff on 06/11/2015

Asian Headlines Post the strong European and US session yesterday it was no surprise to see strength in Asia today. Near the end of the US session, the World Bank cut FY 2015 GDP expectations from 3% to 2.8%.  The US was cut from 3.2% to 2.7% as they asked the Fed to wait until next year for a rate increase. Japan led with the ¥ weakening throughout the session while the BOK rate cut did little to boost markets there. The US$ has been generally stronger following S&P affirming the AA+ rating with a stable outlook. Shanghai underperformed, up .3% on the session with much of the day spent down. The country plans to expand consumer credit service to nationwide from the current 16 cities. Additionally, infrastructure projects to the tune of CNY127B were announced. Retail sales were inline with Industrial Production up slightly. New Yuan loans also grew, ahead of estimates.   BYD +3% is considering building a factory in Germany for its portable power-storage system. Tencent’s +.7% WeChat will allow fingerprint ID to make payments.  After the close, May New Yuan loans reached CNY 900.8b vs. CNY 850b expected. As noted above, the ¥ weakened again today, giving…

Asian Headlines Post the strong European and US session yesterday it was no surprise to see strength in Asia today. Near the end of the US session, the World Bank cut FY 2015 GDP expectations from 3% to 2.8%.  The US was cut from 3.2% to 2.7% as they asked the Fed to wait until next year for a rate increase. Japan led with the ¥ weakening throughout the session while the BOK rate cut did little to boost markets there. The US$ has been generally stronger following S&P affirming the AA+ rating with a stable outlook. Shanghai underperformed, up .3% on the session with much of the day spent down. The country plans to expand consumer credit service to nationwide from the current 16 cities. Additionally, infrastructure projects to the tune of CNY127B were announced. Retail sales were inline with Industrial Production up slightly. New Yuan loans also grew, ahead of estimates.   BYD +3% is considering building a factory in Germany for its portable power-storage system. Tencent’s +.7% WeChat will allow fingerprint ID to make payments.  After the close, May New Yuan loans reached CNY 900.8b vs. CNY 850b expected. As noted above, the ¥ weakened again today, giving…

CAPIS European Close June 10, 2015

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International Summary

posted by Clayton Duff on 06/10/2015 at 1:07 pm
by Clayton Duff on 06/10/2015

European indices (as well as the US) worked higher throughout the session but catapulted higher on word Germany is considering settling for one Greek reform up front with a staggered deal for aid.  Merkel is apparently working diligently to get something done with another meeting with Tispras and Hollande tonight.  Additionally, the ECB again raised the ELA, this time by another €2.3B. Sector-wise, all up nicely with Autos, Basic Resources, and Chemicals leading. Again, volume fell as the market rallied.  As we noted earlier, the ¥ has held onto gains, trading near 122.8 currently. Heidelberg Cement +4.9% firmed up after noting they look to move into new markets adding they expect ebitda of €4B by 2019.  The firm is looking to move away from debt reduction instead expanding ops and returning money to shareholders. BHP Billiton +2.5% and both Rio Tinto +2.2% both finished higher as Fitch affirmed current ratings but lowered their outlook to negative.  Anglo American +2.5% also saw their outlook cut to negative. As we highlighted earlier, Diebold evidently interested in Wincor +10.3% with UBS noting the firm could see as much as €55B/share in a takeover bid. OneSavings Bank -5% trading lower with some mgmt. and employees selling up…

European indices (as well as the US) worked higher throughout the session but catapulted higher on word Germany is considering settling for one Greek reform up front with a staggered deal for aid.  Merkel is apparently working diligently to get something done with another meeting with Tispras and Hollande tonight.  Additionally, the ECB again raised the ELA, this time by another €2.3B. Sector-wise, all up nicely with Autos, Basic Resources, and Chemicals leading. Again, volume fell as the market rallied.  As we noted earlier, the ¥ has held onto gains, trading near 122.8 currently. Heidelberg Cement +4.9% firmed up after noting they look to move into new markets adding they expect ebitda of €4B by 2019.  The firm is looking to move away from debt reduction instead expanding ops and returning money to shareholders. BHP Billiton +2.5% and both Rio Tinto +2.2% both finished higher as Fitch affirmed current ratings but lowered their outlook to negative.  Anglo American +2.5% also saw their outlook cut to negative. As we highlighted earlier, Diebold evidently interested in Wincor +10.3% with UBS noting the firm could see as much as €55B/share in a takeover bid. OneSavings Bank -5% trading lower with some mgmt. and employees selling up…

CAPIS International Summary June 10th, 2015

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International Summary

posted by Clayton Duff on 06/10/2015 at 7:27 am
by Clayton Duff on 06/10/2015

Asian Headlines It certainly was an interesting day in Asia with a number of key stories dominating.  For starters, MSCI did not add Shanghai A shares to its benchmark emerging market index.  However, MSCI did say Shanghai remained “on track” for inclusion.  This was an initial disappointment to the market which had seen speculation A shares would be added.  The Shanghai Composite declined by over 2% shortly after the open before gradually clawing its way back over the course of the session.  Shenzhen traded well in relief reaction to the announcement.  The second main story pertaining to Greater China were reports of a MERS case found in Hong Kong.  The Hang Seng Index had been up small but sold off sharply on the report.  The index moved c. 1.8% intraday before paring losses.  (See chart below.)  It should be noted S. Korea also suffered late day selling with 2 more MERS cases being detected there.  Standard Chartered +3.8% outperformed throughout the day. Bill Winters officially became CEO of the bank today.  It appears there may also be some rotation out of HSBC -0.6% and into Standard following the HSBC investor day.  Worth noting the following report on Chinese farmers eschewing planting and…

Asian Headlines It certainly was an interesting day in Asia with a number of key stories dominating.  For starters, MSCI did not add Shanghai A shares to its benchmark emerging market index.  However, MSCI did say Shanghai remained “on track” for inclusion.  This was an initial disappointment to the market which had seen speculation A shares would be added.  The Shanghai Composite declined by over 2% shortly after the open before gradually clawing its way back over the course of the session.  Shenzhen traded well in relief reaction to the announcement.  The second main story pertaining to Greater China were reports of a MERS case found in Hong Kong.  The Hang Seng Index had been up small but sold off sharply on the report.  The index moved c. 1.8% intraday before paring losses.  (See chart below.)  It should be noted S. Korea also suffered late day selling with 2 more MERS cases being detected there.  Standard Chartered +3.8% outperformed throughout the day. Bill Winters officially became CEO of the bank today.  It appears there may also be some rotation out of HSBC -0.6% and into Standard following the HSBC investor day.  Worth noting the following report on Chinese farmers eschewing planting and…

European Close June 9, 2015

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International Summary

posted by Clayton Duff on 06/09/2015 at 11:34 am
by Clayton Duff on 06/09/2015

European markets shook off early morning weakness as well as a pullback at the US open to close down small on the day.  Volume slowed slightly as the session wore on and worked higher.  After a poor performance yesterday, Autos lead to the upside (the only sector higher for that matter), bouncing as the general market came off of lows. Tomorrow, Greece’s PM Tsipras and German/French leaders will meet again to try and hammer out some kind of agreement. TTN reporting the IMF commenting Europe should financially back Ukraine.  They said the IMF can lend to the war-torn country even if it cannot pay its creditors.  So there, Greece. Fiat -1.7% traded lower with GM head Barra reiterating they are not interested in a merger with the Italian manufacturer. Tesco -.7% trading lower as the co has invited roughly six firms, including KKR and Carlyle, to bid on their South Korean Homeplus unit. The division has been estimated to be valued at $6B.  Earlier, Hyundai Dept Stores was reported to be interested. Shipping equipment maker Neopost -2.5% fell with an unimpressive FY organic flat growth rate forecast. Tonight, China will release New Yuan Loan data with Japan reporting Machine Tool Orders and PPI.…

European markets shook off early morning weakness as well as a pullback at the US open to close down small on the day.  Volume slowed slightly as the session wore on and worked higher.  After a poor performance yesterday, Autos lead to the upside (the only sector higher for that matter), bouncing as the general market came off of lows. Tomorrow, Greece’s PM Tsipras and German/French leaders will meet again to try and hammer out some kind of agreement. TTN reporting the IMF commenting Europe should financially back Ukraine.  They said the IMF can lend to the war-torn country even if it cannot pay its creditors.  So there, Greece. Fiat -1.7% traded lower with GM head Barra reiterating they are not interested in a merger with the Italian manufacturer. Tesco -.7% trading lower as the co has invited roughly six firms, including KKR and Carlyle, to bid on their South Korean Homeplus unit. The division has been estimated to be valued at $6B.  Earlier, Hyundai Dept Stores was reported to be interested. Shipping equipment maker Neopost -2.5% fell with an unimpressive FY organic flat growth rate forecast. Tonight, China will release New Yuan Loan data with Japan reporting Machine Tool Orders and PPI.…

CAPIS International Summary June 9, 2015

News Trading Desk International Summary

International Summary

posted by Matthew Kiselica on 06/09/2015 at 6:47 am
by Matthew Kiselica on 06/09/2015

Asian Headlines The weakness in the West along with another disappointing Chinese macro release caused the region to trade lower across the board.  China’s May CPI rose 1.2% y/y compared with the 1.3% est. and April’s 1.5% increase.  That is a 4 month low.  The May PPI fell 4.6% y/y which is the 39th consecutive decline.  While such recent data has prompted easing hopes,  investors were more cautious today.  The market was also waiting to see what would happen with the MSCI rebalance announcements.  The banking sector saw some pullback after yesterday’s strong gains.  HSBC -0.4% initially rallied after the bank announced as many as 25,000 job cuts and will sell its Turkish & Brazilian unit with Bradesco flagged as the most likely buyer in Brazil. Domicile will be decided this year.  The stock then pared those gains towards the end of the session.  The job cuts had been flagged in the press last week. Macau gaming shares gave way with Sterne Agee data showing revenues are down 46% y/y thus far during June. Japan suffered from a stronger ¥ which traded better then 125 and comments from Economic Minister Amari.  He indicated the strong GDP showing from yesterday was…

Asian Headlines The weakness in the West along with another disappointing Chinese macro release caused the region to trade lower across the board.  China’s May CPI rose 1.2% y/y compared with the 1.3% est. and April’s 1.5% increase.  That is a 4 month low.  The May PPI fell 4.6% y/y which is the 39th consecutive decline.  While such recent data has prompted easing hopes,  investors were more cautious today.  The market was also waiting to see what would happen with the MSCI rebalance announcements.  The banking sector saw some pullback after yesterday’s strong gains.  HSBC -0.4% initially rallied after the bank announced as many as 25,000 job cuts and will sell its Turkish & Brazilian unit with Bradesco flagged as the most likely buyer in Brazil. Domicile will be decided this year.  The stock then pared those gains towards the end of the session.  The job cuts had been flagged in the press last week. Macau gaming shares gave way with Sterne Agee data showing revenues are down 46% y/y thus far during June. Japan suffered from a stronger ¥ which traded better then 125 and comments from Economic Minister Amari.  He indicated the strong GDP showing from yesterday was…

European Close June 8, 2015

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International Summary

posted by Clayton Duff on 06/08/2015 at 11:56 am
by Clayton Duff on 06/08/2015

Most European indices finished near lows today with US markets not lending any positive sentiment.   Volumes were 14% lower with all sectors down except for Food/Bevvies.  Autos finished down 1.86%, with Basic Resources off 1.72%, and Chemicals weaker by 1.28%.  Apart from Obama speaking, nothing new from the G7.  The Euro has continued to rebound, retaking all that was lost on Friday’s sharp sell-off. Barclays closed 1.3% lower despite Stifel buying the firm’s US Wealth and Investment Mgmt that has a reported $56B in total client assets.  Barclays had purchased the firm in 2008 from Lehman Brothers Holdings. Saint Gobain -.1% as Apollo Global Mgmt looks to purchase the firms glass-packaging unit Verallia for €2.95B. Several analysts noted the amount was a bit more than expected as that should help with St Gobain’s purchase of Sika. Logitech -.7% closed down small post noting they will settle with the US SEC for roughly $3.25M over a financial statement investigation. Tonight, CPI/PPI due from China with Japanese Consumer Confidence expected.  Ausralian NAB biz readings out as well.  EZ GDP will be reported after the open with the UK releasing Trade balance info.  

Most European indices finished near lows today with US markets not lending any positive sentiment.   Volumes were 14% lower with all sectors down except for Food/Bevvies.  Autos finished down 1.86%, with Basic Resources off 1.72%, and Chemicals weaker by 1.28%.  Apart from Obama speaking, nothing new from the G7.  The Euro has continued to rebound, retaking all that was lost on Friday’s sharp sell-off. Barclays closed 1.3% lower despite Stifel buying the firm’s US Wealth and Investment Mgmt that has a reported $56B in total client assets.  Barclays had purchased the firm in 2008 from Lehman Brothers Holdings. Saint Gobain -.1% as Apollo Global Mgmt looks to purchase the firms glass-packaging unit Verallia for €2.95B. Several analysts noted the amount was a bit more than expected as that should help with St Gobain’s purchase of Sika. Logitech -.7% closed down small post noting they will settle with the US SEC for roughly $3.25M over a financial statement investigation. Tonight, CPI/PPI due from China with Japanese Consumer Confidence expected.  Ausralian NAB biz readings out as well.  EZ GDP will be reported after the open with the UK releasing Trade balance info.  

CAPIS International Summary June 8th, 2015

News Trading Desk International Summary

International Summary

posted by Matthew Kiselica on 06/08/2015 at 3:07 am
by Matthew Kiselica on 06/08/2015

Asian Headlines The majority of the region was flat to down small while Greater China outperformed.  The gains in China were driven by 2 key items.   MSCI announces its index changes tomorrow and there are hopes Shanghai listed A shares will be added to the Emerging Market Index.  The banking sector is viewed to be one of the main beneficiaries and led the market.  The May trade surplus was $59.5b with exports falling 2.8% y/y vs. the estimate of  a 4% decline.  Imports fell 18.1% y/y vs. the market expectation of -9.6%.   That is the 7th consecutive monthly decline.  The softness in the data prompted hopes of further easing measures by the PBoC.  CSR Corp. and China CNR have completed their merger and are now CRRC Corp. +4.5%. Chow Tai Fook’s -6.5% FY15 earnings missed estimates and sales were softer in China, Hong Kong and Macau. Japan was essentially flat as GDP data caused worry about easing.  Q1 Final GDP expanded a robust 3.9% q/q well ahead of the preliminary 2.4% reading and expected gain to 2.8% q/q.  The April Current Account Surplus was ¥1.33t vs. consensus +¥1.69t.  Nomura lifted its Japanese stock targets citing the weak ¥ will raise…

Asian Headlines The majority of the region was flat to down small while Greater China outperformed.  The gains in China were driven by 2 key items.   MSCI announces its index changes tomorrow and there are hopes Shanghai listed A shares will be added to the Emerging Market Index.  The banking sector is viewed to be one of the main beneficiaries and led the market.  The May trade surplus was $59.5b with exports falling 2.8% y/y vs. the estimate of  a 4% decline.  Imports fell 18.1% y/y vs. the market expectation of -9.6%.   That is the 7th consecutive monthly decline.  The softness in the data prompted hopes of further easing measures by the PBoC.  CSR Corp. and China CNR have completed their merger and are now CRRC Corp. +4.5%. Chow Tai Fook’s -6.5% FY15 earnings missed estimates and sales were softer in China, Hong Kong and Macau. Japan was essentially flat as GDP data caused worry about easing.  Q1 Final GDP expanded a robust 3.9% q/q well ahead of the preliminary 2.4% reading and expected gain to 2.8% q/q.  The April Current Account Surplus was ¥1.33t vs. consensus +¥1.69t.  Nomura lifted its Japanese stock targets citing the weak ¥ will raise…

European Close June 5, 2015

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International Summary

posted by Clayton Duff on 06/05/2015 at 11:37 am
by Clayton Duff on 06/05/2015

European indices traded within a fairly tight range today, albeit over a percent lower than yesterday’s close.  As the day wore on, volume continued to lag, finishing down 6% on the day. Energy and Basic Resource names finished up small with Financials, Chemicals, and Personal Goods all lower by at least 150bps. Little help from the US despite NFP’s coming better than expected.  Treasuries are selling off with European bonds seeing selling as well.  There is not much to add to the Greek situation with Fitch saying the bundling of their IMF payments to month-end has no implications to the country’s CCC sovereign rating. Deutsche Bank -1.7% lower as the firm noted they are looking potential money laundering by some Russian clients.  Initially they believe up to $6B in transactions over four years may have occurred. Syngenta -3.3% lower with word the firm would lose another line of biz if Monsanto is to win approval to acquire the firm. Fiat Chrysler’s -3.3% CEO again talking up industry consolidation  noting they are in talks with many in the sector.  Marchionne said he would stay on until after 2018 if needed if a deal is on the table.  He noted Ferrari cannot be IPO’d before…

European indices traded within a fairly tight range today, albeit over a percent lower than yesterday’s close.  As the day wore on, volume continued to lag, finishing down 6% on the day. Energy and Basic Resource names finished up small with Financials, Chemicals, and Personal Goods all lower by at least 150bps. Little help from the US despite NFP’s coming better than expected.  Treasuries are selling off with European bonds seeing selling as well.  There is not much to add to the Greek situation with Fitch saying the bundling of their IMF payments to month-end has no implications to the country’s CCC sovereign rating. Deutsche Bank -1.7% lower as the firm noted they are looking potential money laundering by some Russian clients.  Initially they believe up to $6B in transactions over four years may have occurred. Syngenta -3.3% lower with word the firm would lose another line of biz if Monsanto is to win approval to acquire the firm. Fiat Chrysler’s -3.3% CEO again talking up industry consolidation  noting they are in talks with many in the sector.  Marchionne said he would stay on until after 2018 if needed if a deal is on the table.  He noted Ferrari cannot be IPO’d before…

CAPIS International Summary June 5, 2015

News Trading Desk International Summary

International Summary

posted by Clayton Duff on 06/05/2015 at 7:22 am
by Clayton Duff on 06/05/2015

Asian Headlines Following on yesterday’s Greek news, most of the core Asian markets ended the day down small; however, China closed to the upside.  A number of the peripheral markets also managed to move higher.  China spent most of the session higher but saw a similar pattern to what occurred yesterday albeit with less volatility.  Shanghai came under pressure as the mid-day break approached and the selling continued as the afternoon trading commenced.  After hitting a low of -1%, the market steadily rallied and spent the balance of the day to the upside, finishing in the green.  Overall, Shanghai swung c. 3.0% intraday and closed above 5,000.  The market did see some further margin lending tightening from the Street. A PBoC official declared the Shanghai Free Trade Zone (FTZ) has met the conditions for full Yuan convertibility.  Great Wall Motor’s -8.5% May sales were 65,400 vehicles vs. 51,837 y/y. China Vanke’s +2.3% May sales were 20.7b yuan up from April’s 17.8b yuan.  Macau casino shares gained following Citi’s comments from yesterday that gaming trends improved during May. Japan spent the entire session lower but did pare losses over the last hour.  The combination of Greek concerns coupled with the comments from BoJ member Harada made…

Asian Headlines Following on yesterday’s Greek news, most of the core Asian markets ended the day down small; however, China closed to the upside.  A number of the peripheral markets also managed to move higher.  China spent most of the session higher but saw a similar pattern to what occurred yesterday albeit with less volatility.  Shanghai came under pressure as the mid-day break approached and the selling continued as the afternoon trading commenced.  After hitting a low of -1%, the market steadily rallied and spent the balance of the day to the upside, finishing in the green.  Overall, Shanghai swung c. 3.0% intraday and closed above 5,000.  The market did see some further margin lending tightening from the Street. A PBoC official declared the Shanghai Free Trade Zone (FTZ) has met the conditions for full Yuan convertibility.  Great Wall Motor’s -8.5% May sales were 65,400 vehicles vs. 51,837 y/y. China Vanke’s +2.3% May sales were 20.7b yuan up from April’s 17.8b yuan.  Macau casino shares gained following Citi’s comments from yesterday that gaming trends improved during May. Japan spent the entire session lower but did pare losses over the last hour.  The combination of Greek concerns coupled with the comments from BoJ member Harada made…

European Close June 4, 2015

News Trading Desk International Summary

International Summary

posted by Clayton Duff on 06/04/2015 at 11:43 am
by Clayton Duff on 06/04/2015

A volatile session today with volume slowing as the session wore on.  European indices saw some strength post the US open but quickly turned south again. Like earlier, all sectors are lower with Basic Resources, Utilities, and Energy all finishing down over 2%. On the Greek front, bonds rebounded post more word that Greece will indeed make their IMF payment tomorrow.  At one point, the 10 year Bund nearly reached 1% but they rebounded to yield .835% currently.  Concerning the offer to Athens, EU creditors are looking to an increase to the VAT tax plus pension cuts.  More sales and privatizations are being requested.  In return, the EFSF will be able to provide €11B to cover July and August payments. Additionally, the IMF today cut US growth forecasts asking the Fed to hold off until next year any rate increases.  They cited delicate international portfolios for the request. ABB +3.57% higher on word of an increased investment by Cevian Capital. Ericsson +2.4% a standout today as JPM upped the name to Overweight citing an upswing in US wireless infrastructure spending post a cyclical low. They see spending starting to increase in the 2H with an upswing expected next year. Saipem -13% on a…

A volatile session today with volume slowing as the session wore on.  European indices saw some strength post the US open but quickly turned south again. Like earlier, all sectors are lower with Basic Resources, Utilities, and Energy all finishing down over 2%. On the Greek front, bonds rebounded post more word that Greece will indeed make their IMF payment tomorrow.  At one point, the 10 year Bund nearly reached 1% but they rebounded to yield .835% currently.  Concerning the offer to Athens, EU creditors are looking to an increase to the VAT tax plus pension cuts.  More sales and privatizations are being requested.  In return, the EFSF will be able to provide €11B to cover July and August payments. Additionally, the IMF today cut US growth forecasts asking the Fed to hold off until next year any rate increases.  They cited delicate international portfolios for the request. ABB +3.57% higher on word of an increased investment by Cevian Capital. Ericsson +2.4% a standout today as JPM upped the name to Overweight citing an upswing in US wireless infrastructure spending post a cyclical low. They see spending starting to increase in the 2H with an upswing expected next year. Saipem -13% on a…

CAPIS International Summary June 4, 2015

News Trading Desk International Summary

International Summary

posted by Clayton Duff on 06/04/2015 at 7:14 am
by Clayton Duff on 06/04/2015

Asian Headlines It was quite a day for Chinese traders with the major indices swinging to and fro.  The Shanghai Composite was lower by over 5% in almost a straight line over a very brief period that straddled the mid-day break after Guo Sheng Secs. ceased margin lending to retail investors for certain securities.  However, the market steadily rebounded over the rest of the afternoon and managed to close higher.  (See chart below)  Helping the bounce were comments from a PBoC official indicating the deposit rate cap may be “soon” be removed.  Thus, banks led the advance.  BoCom +5.5% had its ownership reform plan approved by authorities.  Byd +8.8% resumed trading following its private placement announcement. It was tough day Down Under following disappointment with the April Trade Deficit and Retail Sales.  The trade deficit reached an all time record of -$A3.9b vs. -A$2.1b expected and was the 13th consecutive monthly deficit.  Retail sales were flat m/m marking a 1 year low with the market expecting a gain of +0.3%.  All sectors were lower with most by well over 1% as basic resources, retail and banks experienced some of the steepest declines.   NAB -2.0% is rumored to be in talks to sell its…

Asian Headlines It was quite a day for Chinese traders with the major indices swinging to and fro.  The Shanghai Composite was lower by over 5% in almost a straight line over a very brief period that straddled the mid-day break after Guo Sheng Secs. ceased margin lending to retail investors for certain securities.  However, the market steadily rebounded over the rest of the afternoon and managed to close higher.  (See chart below)  Helping the bounce were comments from a PBoC official indicating the deposit rate cap may be “soon” be removed.  Thus, banks led the advance.  BoCom +5.5% had its ownership reform plan approved by authorities.  Byd +8.8% resumed trading following its private placement announcement. It was tough day Down Under following disappointment with the April Trade Deficit and Retail Sales.  The trade deficit reached an all time record of -$A3.9b vs. -A$2.1b expected and was the 13th consecutive monthly deficit.  Retail sales were flat m/m marking a 1 year low with the market expecting a gain of +0.3%.  All sectors were lower with most by well over 1% as basic resources, retail and banks experienced some of the steepest declines.   NAB -2.0% is rumored to be in talks to sell its…

European Close June 3rd, 2015

News Trading Desk International Summary

International Summary

posted by Matthew Kiselica on 06/03/2015 at 12:57 pm
by Matthew Kiselica on 06/03/2015

Closing Comments Europe ended the day to the upside but saw selling pressure towards the close with a number of the major indices closing at or near their respective lows. Some of the latter day selling may have been reaction to headlines indicated sanctions against Russia would be extended for 6 more months at the upcoming EU summit later this month. However, the tone of the 2nd half of the day was largely positive.   The retail sector, banks and chems led while food/bevies, basic resources and energy lagged.  None of the major sectors moved by 1%.  Volumes were lower by c. 7% overall. The key afternoon news was the ECB rate decision and Mr. Draghi’s press conference.  The central bank made no policy changes but did raise its EU CPI forecasts for the year to 0.3% from flat. Mr. Draghi stated QE was having precisely the desired effect and there were signs the regions economy was improving.  Therefore, there was no need to add to the current easing plan.  This caused the € to rally from the low 1.11’s to 1.125 and better (see chart below).   Conversely, regional sovereign bonds sold off with yields seeing increases of multiple basis points.…

Closing Comments Europe ended the day to the upside but saw selling pressure towards the close with a number of the major indices closing at or near their respective lows. Some of the latter day selling may have been reaction to headlines indicated sanctions against Russia would be extended for 6 more months at the upcoming EU summit later this month. However, the tone of the 2nd half of the day was largely positive.   The retail sector, banks and chems led while food/bevies, basic resources and energy lagged.  None of the major sectors moved by 1%.  Volumes were lower by c. 7% overall. The key afternoon news was the ECB rate decision and Mr. Draghi’s press conference.  The central bank made no policy changes but did raise its EU CPI forecasts for the year to 0.3% from flat. Mr. Draghi stated QE was having precisely the desired effect and there were signs the regions economy was improving.  Therefore, there was no need to add to the current easing plan.  This caused the € to rally from the low 1.11’s to 1.125 and better (see chart below).   Conversely, regional sovereign bonds sold off with yields seeing increases of multiple basis points.…

CAPIS International Summary June 3, 2015

News Trading Desk International Summary

International Summary

posted by Clayton Duff on 06/03/2015 at 6:53 am
by Clayton Duff on 06/03/2015

Asian Headlines Varied returns overnight with mainland China pausing from its recent runup to close flat on the session. Hong Kong managed gains with Japan, South Korea, and Australia lower on the session. China initially ticked up post the better HSBC Services PMI reading, with their economist noting the strongest upturn in three years.  Hong Kong finished higher but off of highs depite HSBC PMI data light vs the prior reading.   Per TTN, Markit economists noted weakening output on a faster contraction of new orders.  Additionally, new business from the mainland fell at the fastest rate since December of 2008.  The PBoC yesterday said they will allow lenders to issue Certificates of Deposit to individuals and companies as they continue the march toward interest-rate liberalization.  Geely Automotive -4% underperformed today after UBS cut the name to Sell from Neutral.  CK Hutchison Holdings fell 4% as its spinoff, Cheung Kong Property -flat– IPO’d today.  Note: after the close, BYD Co said they plan to raise up to 15B Yuan via an A-share placement. Japan finished down as the ¥ strengthened slightly post better Markit Services and Composite PMI data readings.  The BoJ’s Shrai forecasted that its 2% target will be achieved at the end…

Asian Headlines Varied returns overnight with mainland China pausing from its recent runup to close flat on the session. Hong Kong managed gains with Japan, South Korea, and Australia lower on the session. China initially ticked up post the better HSBC Services PMI reading, with their economist noting the strongest upturn in three years.  Hong Kong finished higher but off of highs depite HSBC PMI data light vs the prior reading.   Per TTN, Markit economists noted weakening output on a faster contraction of new orders.  Additionally, new business from the mainland fell at the fastest rate since December of 2008.  The PBoC yesterday said they will allow lenders to issue Certificates of Deposit to individuals and companies as they continue the march toward interest-rate liberalization.  Geely Automotive -4% underperformed today after UBS cut the name to Sell from Neutral.  CK Hutchison Holdings fell 4% as its spinoff, Cheung Kong Property -flat– IPO’d today.  Note: after the close, BYD Co said they plan to raise up to 15B Yuan via an A-share placement. Japan finished down as the ¥ strengthened slightly post better Markit Services and Composite PMI data readings.  The BoJ’s Shrai forecasted that its 2% target will be achieved at the end…

CAPIS European Close June 2, 2015

News Trading Desk International Summary

International Summary

posted by Matthew Kiselica on 06/02/2015 at 12:04 pm
by Matthew Kiselica on 06/02/2015

European Headlines Europe ended the day to the downside with little constructive seen on the Greek front while the U.S. markets once again provided no definitive direction.  Eurogroup Finance Minister head Dijjsselbloem downplayed rumors a Hellenic deal was near stating it was “still far from a deal with Greece.”  Spain and Italy outperformed the region with banking stocks proving the lift.  However, across all of the markets basic resources was the only sector make any significant advance.  Personal goods pulled back by over 2% followed by food/bevies, healthcare and travel/leisure. The travel/leisure  sector was impacted by continued increases in crude prices.   OPEC holding an international seminar tomorrow with its production meeting following on Friday.  However, most analysts do not expect any cut to production.  That sentiment has been underscored by the Saudi Oil Minister stating crude demand was picking up.  The travel sector was also burdened by reports of bomb threats made to flights heading from Europe to the States.  However, later in the session the threats were said to be “not credible.” May U.S. auto sales were released and were a focus for the sector.  Fiat Chrysler’s -0.7%  sales surpassed the +2.6% estimate increasing by 4.0%.  The shares initially responded well…

European Headlines Europe ended the day to the downside with little constructive seen on the Greek front while the U.S. markets once again provided no definitive direction.  Eurogroup Finance Minister head Dijjsselbloem downplayed rumors a Hellenic deal was near stating it was “still far from a deal with Greece.”  Spain and Italy outperformed the region with banking stocks proving the lift.  However, across all of the markets basic resources was the only sector make any significant advance.  Personal goods pulled back by over 2% followed by food/bevies, healthcare and travel/leisure. The travel/leisure  sector was impacted by continued increases in crude prices.   OPEC holding an international seminar tomorrow with its production meeting following on Friday.  However, most analysts do not expect any cut to production.  That sentiment has been underscored by the Saudi Oil Minister stating crude demand was picking up.  The travel sector was also burdened by reports of bomb threats made to flights heading from Europe to the States.  However, later in the session the threats were said to be “not credible.” May U.S. auto sales were released and were a focus for the sector.  Fiat Chrysler’s -0.7%  sales surpassed the +2.6% estimate increasing by 4.0%.  The shares initially responded well…

CAPIS International Summary June 2, 2015

News Trading Desk International Summary

International Summary

posted by Clayton Duff on 06/02/2015 at 6:48 am
by Clayton Duff on 06/02/2015

Asian Headlines A generally weaker bias in Asia today with the exception of mainland China which rallied again.  Goldman noted despite manufacturing ticking up slightly the PBoC easing bias is expected to continue. Also, Moodys raised it forecast on the Chinese property market to Stable with sales values expected to grow up to 5% through to June of next year. The HK line of HSBC -.4% fell after Sky News reported that the bank will announce on June 9th that it will be cutting between 10,000 and 20,000 employees. Zoomlion Heavy +12% will purchase a 57% stake in an Italian renewable co. for €57M. Macau May casino revenue fell 37.1% y/y vs. the 38.5% drop est. TTN reported “vague chatter is circulating that Macau business is declining so much that regulators are looking at lowering taxes.  Post the close, retail sales by value were reported to fall 2.2% YoY with volumes meeting estimates, up 2.4%. In Japan, workers wages increased faster than the cost of living for the first time in two years as real cash earnings rose 0.1% YoY. Overall wages including overtime and bonuses rose 0.9%. NTT DoCoMo +3.9% targets a ROE of over 10% in 3 years and…

Asian Headlines A generally weaker bias in Asia today with the exception of mainland China which rallied again.  Goldman noted despite manufacturing ticking up slightly the PBoC easing bias is expected to continue. Also, Moodys raised it forecast on the Chinese property market to Stable with sales values expected to grow up to 5% through to June of next year. The HK line of HSBC -.4% fell after Sky News reported that the bank will announce on June 9th that it will be cutting between 10,000 and 20,000 employees. Zoomlion Heavy +12% will purchase a 57% stake in an Italian renewable co. for €57M. Macau May casino revenue fell 37.1% y/y vs. the 38.5% drop est. TTN reported “vague chatter is circulating that Macau business is declining so much that regulators are looking at lowering taxes.  Post the close, retail sales by value were reported to fall 2.2% YoY with volumes meeting estimates, up 2.4%. In Japan, workers wages increased faster than the cost of living for the first time in two years as real cash earnings rose 0.1% YoY. Overall wages including overtime and bonuses rose 0.9%. NTT DoCoMo +3.9% targets a ROE of over 10% in 3 years and…

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