Trading Desk

1911 total posts

CAPIS International Summary June 15, 2015

News Trading Desk International Summary

International Summary

posted by Clayton Duff on 06/15/2015 at 6:43 am
by Clayton Duff on 06/15/2015

Asian Headlines A negative start to the week with markets focused on a breakdown in talks Sunday concerning Greece.   Sector-wise Consumer Discretionary names led lower in HK with IT, Healthcare, Telecoms, and Energy all weaker by at least 3% in Shanghai. Chinese stocks fell as the government did not lower the reserve requirement ratio over the weekend as investors had hoped. Also, weighing China was 25 IPO’s this week which will draw money away from current trading names. Margin debt last week leapt again, to CNY2.22T or up 2.3% WoW, with regulators again issuing warnings. Per TTN, a local story noted the government will merge 5 iron/steel SOEs into 2-3 companies to help ease overcapacity. Prada -4.9% reported profits that were well below forecast citing weak demand by Chinese shoppers. For 1Q, NI fell 44% and were roughly half the estimate expected.  Women’s footwear retailer Belle International fell 6.8% post reporting 1Q sales faling 7.8%. Japan was a relative outperformer, closing flat with the ¥ slightly weaker on the session.  The Japanese government has decided to hold off on the sale of its remaining stake in Japan Tobacco -.9%.    Isuzu Motors +1.8% rallied post an announcement they will join with GM…

Asian Headlines A negative start to the week with markets focused on a breakdown in talks Sunday concerning Greece.   Sector-wise Consumer Discretionary names led lower in HK with IT, Healthcare, Telecoms, and Energy all weaker by at least 3% in Shanghai. Chinese stocks fell as the government did not lower the reserve requirement ratio over the weekend as investors had hoped. Also, weighing China was 25 IPO’s this week which will draw money away from current trading names. Margin debt last week leapt again, to CNY2.22T or up 2.3% WoW, with regulators again issuing warnings. Per TTN, a local story noted the government will merge 5 iron/steel SOEs into 2-3 companies to help ease overcapacity. Prada -4.9% reported profits that were well below forecast citing weak demand by Chinese shoppers. For 1Q, NI fell 44% and were roughly half the estimate expected.  Women’s footwear retailer Belle International fell 6.8% post reporting 1Q sales faling 7.8%. Japan was a relative outperformer, closing flat with the ¥ slightly weaker on the session.  The Japanese government has decided to hold off on the sale of its remaining stake in Japan Tobacco -.9%.    Isuzu Motors +1.8% rallied post an announcement they will join with GM…

CAPIS European Close June 12, 2015

News Trading Desk International Summary

International Summary

posted by Matthew Kiselica on 06/12/2015 at 12:09 pm
by Matthew Kiselica on 06/12/2015

A weaker U.S. open coupled with raising concerns of a “Grexit” kept the region firmly in the red during afternoon trading.  Following the IMF negotiating team leaving Brussels without an agreement, several reports added to the negative sentiment including Germany examining possible capital controls and the Eurogroup considering a “Plan B.”   The markets hit their respective lows with about a half an hour to go before seeing a modest bounce into the close.  Greek banks saw heavy selling and the market fell over 5% today following yesterday’s 8% gain.  All sectors were red with energy, chemicals, personal goods and healthcare all pulling back by 1% or more.  Telecoms and basic resources experienced modest declines.  Volumes were c. 15.o% lower but that was an improvement from earlier in the session. Sovereign yields had divergent results with the Greek 10 yr yield advancing over 50 bps while the PIIGS and other peripheral yields seeing gains between 7-15 bps. Conversely, “core”  European yields benefited from a flight to safety.  (See Tables Below)   The € saw volatility falling to 1.1151 a few hours into the session before steadily rallying and trading above 1.127 currently. The £ had gained from the around the point of the U.S. open…

A weaker U.S. open coupled with raising concerns of a “Grexit” kept the region firmly in the red during afternoon trading.  Following the IMF negotiating team leaving Brussels without an agreement, several reports added to the negative sentiment including Germany examining possible capital controls and the Eurogroup considering a “Plan B.”   The markets hit their respective lows with about a half an hour to go before seeing a modest bounce into the close.  Greek banks saw heavy selling and the market fell over 5% today following yesterday’s 8% gain.  All sectors were red with energy, chemicals, personal goods and healthcare all pulling back by 1% or more.  Telecoms and basic resources experienced modest declines.  Volumes were c. 15.o% lower but that was an improvement from earlier in the session. Sovereign yields had divergent results with the Greek 10 yr yield advancing over 50 bps while the PIIGS and other peripheral yields seeing gains between 7-15 bps. Conversely, “core”  European yields benefited from a flight to safety.  (See Tables Below)   The € saw volatility falling to 1.1151 a few hours into the session before steadily rallying and trading above 1.127 currently. The £ had gained from the around the point of the U.S. open…

CAPIS International Summary June 12, 2015

News Trading Desk International Summary

International Summary

posted by Clayton Duff on 06/12/2015 at 7:02 am
by Clayton Duff on 06/12/2015

Asian Headlines China closed out the week with strength as most of the other major markets finished near flattish levels.  Consumer staples and Industrials led in Hong Kong with I.T an outperformer in Japan and South Korea. Shanghai and the Hang Seng moved higher today post the better New Yuan loan and M2 money supply data released after the close yesterday.  HSBC economists noted loan growth is on the upswing.  A local press report added that some banks in Shenzhen have increased mortgage rates on signs of housing inflation moving higher.  China Life Insurance closed up 2.3% after they noted May premiums climbed 30% with gains of 19% for the year.  Ping An +2.8% also traded higher with life premiums up 19% vs gains of 10.5% YoY. Post the close, Hong Kong reported Industrial Production that fell 1.5%, ahead of the 3.6% fall prior. Keep an eye out this weekend with speculation ticking up that the PBoC could again cut their reserve ratio. The ¥ weakened over the last hour despite the BOJ’s Harada noting additional stimulus could be delayed even if inflation does not hit their 2% target, taking into effect rising price trends.   Osaka Gas -3.3% and Electric…

Asian Headlines China closed out the week with strength as most of the other major markets finished near flattish levels.  Consumer staples and Industrials led in Hong Kong with I.T an outperformer in Japan and South Korea. Shanghai and the Hang Seng moved higher today post the better New Yuan loan and M2 money supply data released after the close yesterday.  HSBC economists noted loan growth is on the upswing.  A local press report added that some banks in Shenzhen have increased mortgage rates on signs of housing inflation moving higher.  China Life Insurance closed up 2.3% after they noted May premiums climbed 30% with gains of 19% for the year.  Ping An +2.8% also traded higher with life premiums up 19% vs gains of 10.5% YoY. Post the close, Hong Kong reported Industrial Production that fell 1.5%, ahead of the 3.6% fall prior. Keep an eye out this weekend with speculation ticking up that the PBoC could again cut their reserve ratio. The ¥ weakened over the last hour despite the BOJ’s Harada noting additional stimulus could be delayed even if inflation does not hit their 2% target, taking into effect rising price trends.   Osaka Gas -3.3% and Electric…

European Close June 11th, 2015

News Trading Desk International Summary

International Summary

posted by Matthew Kiselica on 06/11/2015 at 11:32 am
by Matthew Kiselica on 06/11/2015

Europe had been trading well reaching the highs of the day c. 30 minutes after the U.S. open.  However, the markets came under selling pressure after an IMF spokesperson declared the organization had “major issues with Greece in key areas.”   At this point, sellers grabbed control of the market and all of the major indices moved lower.  The Eurostoxx600 retreated 1.0% before paring losses (see intraday chart). Greece was already closed when the headlines hit the tape and was +8.0% on the day with banks leading following yesterday’s increase of the ELA program by the ECB. The € wobbled on the news but is currently trading higher than at the time of the announcement. Sovereign yields rose but then managed to recover with most countries seeing improvement for the day between 7 to 10 bps.  Overall, personal goods and insurance gained 1% followed by retail and food/beverages.  Basic resources and telecoms were marginally weaker.  Volumes were a touch lower on the day but increased following the IMF statements. The afternoon saw reports allege FiatChrylser +1.4% CEO Marchionne is considering other merger options as chances of a deal with GM +0.7% are said to be “waning.”  Peugeot +2.6% is reputed to…

Europe had been trading well reaching the highs of the day c. 30 minutes after the U.S. open.  However, the markets came under selling pressure after an IMF spokesperson declared the organization had “major issues with Greece in key areas.”   At this point, sellers grabbed control of the market and all of the major indices moved lower.  The Eurostoxx600 retreated 1.0% before paring losses (see intraday chart). Greece was already closed when the headlines hit the tape and was +8.0% on the day with banks leading following yesterday’s increase of the ELA program by the ECB. The € wobbled on the news but is currently trading higher than at the time of the announcement. Sovereign yields rose but then managed to recover with most countries seeing improvement for the day between 7 to 10 bps.  Overall, personal goods and insurance gained 1% followed by retail and food/beverages.  Basic resources and telecoms were marginally weaker.  Volumes were a touch lower on the day but increased following the IMF statements. The afternoon saw reports allege FiatChrylser +1.4% CEO Marchionne is considering other merger options as chances of a deal with GM +0.7% are said to be “waning.”  Peugeot +2.6% is reputed to…

The doji strikes again!

News Trading Desk Morning Macro News

Morning Macro News

posted by CAPIS on 06/11/2015 at 7:12 am
by CAPIS on 06/11/2015

Good Morning Thursday! I mentioned in yesterday’s morning piece that I thought Tuesday’s doji candle on the daily chart, for SPX, would signal a trend change. I thought we’d see the 100 DMA, at least, and hopefully a Close near R2 or 2100 if they “really wanted to make a statement”. Well, the short-covering rally got even saucier after floating up to the 2100 / 50 DMA area when a rumor about Germany considering Greece’s proprosal saw the SPX pop to make HOD’s at 2108.50 (really it was 2108.45 where we topped out after the Germany headline near 11:10 am ET, as we truly made our HOD near 2:25 pm ET when we went to test it from below again). From those highs we hung around R3, as the volume that pushed us above 2100 now gave support. We settled higher by +1.20% to 2105.20; above the 100, 5, 10 & 50 DMAs (in lowest to highest order). The 10-year yield also reached up to test near the 2.50 level (also mentioned in past missives). Today is the day quarterly index futures roll to the new month, so after today move your watch list from ESM5 to ESU5. You’ll see…

Good Morning Thursday! I mentioned in yesterday’s morning piece that I thought Tuesday’s doji candle on the daily chart, for SPX, would signal a trend change. I thought we’d see the 100 DMA, at least, and hopefully a Close near R2 or 2100 if they “really wanted to make a statement”. Well, the short-covering rally got even saucier after floating up to the 2100 / 50 DMA area when a rumor about Germany considering Greece’s proprosal saw the SPX pop to make HOD’s at 2108.50 (really it was 2108.45 where we topped out after the Germany headline near 11:10 am ET, as we truly made our HOD near 2:25 pm ET when we went to test it from below again). From those highs we hung around R3, as the volume that pushed us above 2100 now gave support. We settled higher by +1.20% to 2105.20; above the 100, 5, 10 & 50 DMAs (in lowest to highest order). The 10-year yield also reached up to test near the 2.50 level (also mentioned in past missives). Today is the day quarterly index futures roll to the new month, so after today move your watch list from ESM5 to ESU5. You’ll see…

CAPIS International Summary June 11, 2015

News Trading Desk International Summary

International Summary

posted by Clayton Duff on 06/11/2015 at 6:56 am
by Clayton Duff on 06/11/2015

Asian Headlines Post the strong European and US session yesterday it was no surprise to see strength in Asia today. Near the end of the US session, the World Bank cut FY 2015 GDP expectations from 3% to 2.8%.  The US was cut from 3.2% to 2.7% as they asked the Fed to wait until next year for a rate increase. Japan led with the ¥ weakening throughout the session while the BOK rate cut did little to boost markets there. The US$ has been generally stronger following S&P affirming the AA+ rating with a stable outlook. Shanghai underperformed, up .3% on the session with much of the day spent down. The country plans to expand consumer credit service to nationwide from the current 16 cities. Additionally, infrastructure projects to the tune of CNY127B were announced. Retail sales were inline with Industrial Production up slightly. New Yuan loans also grew, ahead of estimates.   BYD +3% is considering building a factory in Germany for its portable power-storage system. Tencent’s +.7% WeChat will allow fingerprint ID to make payments.  After the close, May New Yuan loans reached CNY 900.8b vs. CNY 850b expected. As noted above, the ¥ weakened again today, giving…

Asian Headlines Post the strong European and US session yesterday it was no surprise to see strength in Asia today. Near the end of the US session, the World Bank cut FY 2015 GDP expectations from 3% to 2.8%.  The US was cut from 3.2% to 2.7% as they asked the Fed to wait until next year for a rate increase. Japan led with the ¥ weakening throughout the session while the BOK rate cut did little to boost markets there. The US$ has been generally stronger following S&P affirming the AA+ rating with a stable outlook. Shanghai underperformed, up .3% on the session with much of the day spent down. The country plans to expand consumer credit service to nationwide from the current 16 cities. Additionally, infrastructure projects to the tune of CNY127B were announced. Retail sales were inline with Industrial Production up slightly. New Yuan loans also grew, ahead of estimates.   BYD +3% is considering building a factory in Germany for its portable power-storage system. Tencent’s +.7% WeChat will allow fingerprint ID to make payments.  After the close, May New Yuan loans reached CNY 900.8b vs. CNY 850b expected. As noted above, the ¥ weakened again today, giving…

CAPIS European Close June 10, 2015

News Trading Desk International Summary

International Summary

posted by Clayton Duff on 06/10/2015 at 1:07 pm
by Clayton Duff on 06/10/2015

European indices (as well as the US) worked higher throughout the session but catapulted higher on word Germany is considering settling for one Greek reform up front with a staggered deal for aid.  Merkel is apparently working diligently to get something done with another meeting with Tispras and Hollande tonight.  Additionally, the ECB again raised the ELA, this time by another €2.3B. Sector-wise, all up nicely with Autos, Basic Resources, and Chemicals leading. Again, volume fell as the market rallied.  As we noted earlier, the ¥ has held onto gains, trading near 122.8 currently. Heidelberg Cement +4.9% firmed up after noting they look to move into new markets adding they expect ebitda of €4B by 2019.  The firm is looking to move away from debt reduction instead expanding ops and returning money to shareholders. BHP Billiton +2.5% and both Rio Tinto +2.2% both finished higher as Fitch affirmed current ratings but lowered their outlook to negative.  Anglo American +2.5% also saw their outlook cut to negative. As we highlighted earlier, Diebold evidently interested in Wincor +10.3% with UBS noting the firm could see as much as €55B/share in a takeover bid. OneSavings Bank -5% trading lower with some mgmt. and employees selling up…

European indices (as well as the US) worked higher throughout the session but catapulted higher on word Germany is considering settling for one Greek reform up front with a staggered deal for aid.  Merkel is apparently working diligently to get something done with another meeting with Tispras and Hollande tonight.  Additionally, the ECB again raised the ELA, this time by another €2.3B. Sector-wise, all up nicely with Autos, Basic Resources, and Chemicals leading. Again, volume fell as the market rallied.  As we noted earlier, the ¥ has held onto gains, trading near 122.8 currently. Heidelberg Cement +4.9% firmed up after noting they look to move into new markets adding they expect ebitda of €4B by 2019.  The firm is looking to move away from debt reduction instead expanding ops and returning money to shareholders. BHP Billiton +2.5% and both Rio Tinto +2.2% both finished higher as Fitch affirmed current ratings but lowered their outlook to negative.  Anglo American +2.5% also saw their outlook cut to negative. As we highlighted earlier, Diebold evidently interested in Wincor +10.3% with UBS noting the firm could see as much as €55B/share in a takeover bid. OneSavings Bank -5% trading lower with some mgmt. and employees selling up…

CAPIS International Summary June 10th, 2015

News Trading Desk International Summary

International Summary

posted by Clayton Duff on 06/10/2015 at 7:27 am
by Clayton Duff on 06/10/2015

Asian Headlines It certainly was an interesting day in Asia with a number of key stories dominating.  For starters, MSCI did not add Shanghai A shares to its benchmark emerging market index.  However, MSCI did say Shanghai remained “on track” for inclusion.  This was an initial disappointment to the market which had seen speculation A shares would be added.  The Shanghai Composite declined by over 2% shortly after the open before gradually clawing its way back over the course of the session.  Shenzhen traded well in relief reaction to the announcement.  The second main story pertaining to Greater China were reports of a MERS case found in Hong Kong.  The Hang Seng Index had been up small but sold off sharply on the report.  The index moved c. 1.8% intraday before paring losses.  (See chart below.)  It should be noted S. Korea also suffered late day selling with 2 more MERS cases being detected there.  Standard Chartered +3.8% outperformed throughout the day. Bill Winters officially became CEO of the bank today.  It appears there may also be some rotation out of HSBC -0.6% and into Standard following the HSBC investor day.  Worth noting the following report on Chinese farmers eschewing planting and…

Asian Headlines It certainly was an interesting day in Asia with a number of key stories dominating.  For starters, MSCI did not add Shanghai A shares to its benchmark emerging market index.  However, MSCI did say Shanghai remained “on track” for inclusion.  This was an initial disappointment to the market which had seen speculation A shares would be added.  The Shanghai Composite declined by over 2% shortly after the open before gradually clawing its way back over the course of the session.  Shenzhen traded well in relief reaction to the announcement.  The second main story pertaining to Greater China were reports of a MERS case found in Hong Kong.  The Hang Seng Index had been up small but sold off sharply on the report.  The index moved c. 1.8% intraday before paring losses.  (See chart below.)  It should be noted S. Korea also suffered late day selling with 2 more MERS cases being detected there.  Standard Chartered +3.8% outperformed throughout the day. Bill Winters officially became CEO of the bank today.  It appears there may also be some rotation out of HSBC -0.6% and into Standard following the HSBC investor day.  Worth noting the following report on Chinese farmers eschewing planting and…

Let’s go up

News Trading Desk Morning Macro News

Morning Macro News

posted by CAPIS on 06/10/2015 at 7:16 am
by CAPIS on 06/10/2015

Hello there, Yesterday saw the market drop below the 2080 level, and make a Low of week at 2072.14. SPX feel to start the day, dropping below S1 and making its LOD shortly after the first hour; immediately finding support and floating back up to the 2078 level. We then rose above 2080 again and tested the PP going into lunch. At 1:oo pm we broke above the PP to test the 100 DMA from below, finding our ultimate HOD at 2085.62 From there we slowly made our way lower until we closed higher by 0.04% to 2080.15. This close broke the string of negative days, and more importantly (in my mind) we printed a “doji” candle on the daily chart (flat Open/Close with range extensions above and below = trend stall, which obviously was “down”). With the expectation that moves lower should be relatively purchased, this was a good “buy on the Close” day. We have no important eco today so I’m looking for us to move back to Close above the 100 DMA to confirm the doji downward trend stall. If Retail Sales are any good then I’m looking right to 2100 and the 50 DMA to test from…

Hello there, Yesterday saw the market drop below the 2080 level, and make a Low of week at 2072.14. SPX feel to start the day, dropping below S1 and making its LOD shortly after the first hour; immediately finding support and floating back up to the 2078 level. We then rose above 2080 again and tested the PP going into lunch. At 1:oo pm we broke above the PP to test the 100 DMA from below, finding our ultimate HOD at 2085.62 From there we slowly made our way lower until we closed higher by 0.04% to 2080.15. This close broke the string of negative days, and more importantly (in my mind) we printed a “doji” candle on the daily chart (flat Open/Close with range extensions above and below = trend stall, which obviously was “down”). With the expectation that moves lower should be relatively purchased, this was a good “buy on the Close” day. We have no important eco today so I’m looking for us to move back to Close above the 100 DMA to confirm the doji downward trend stall. If Retail Sales are any good then I’m looking right to 2100 and the 50 DMA to test from…

European Close June 9, 2015

News Trading Desk International Summary

International Summary

posted by Clayton Duff on 06/09/2015 at 11:34 am
by Clayton Duff on 06/09/2015

European markets shook off early morning weakness as well as a pullback at the US open to close down small on the day.  Volume slowed slightly as the session wore on and worked higher.  After a poor performance yesterday, Autos lead to the upside (the only sector higher for that matter), bouncing as the general market came off of lows. Tomorrow, Greece’s PM Tsipras and German/French leaders will meet again to try and hammer out some kind of agreement. TTN reporting the IMF commenting Europe should financially back Ukraine.  They said the IMF can lend to the war-torn country even if it cannot pay its creditors.  So there, Greece. Fiat -1.7% traded lower with GM head Barra reiterating they are not interested in a merger with the Italian manufacturer. Tesco -.7% trading lower as the co has invited roughly six firms, including KKR and Carlyle, to bid on their South Korean Homeplus unit. The division has been estimated to be valued at $6B.  Earlier, Hyundai Dept Stores was reported to be interested. Shipping equipment maker Neopost -2.5% fell with an unimpressive FY organic flat growth rate forecast. Tonight, China will release New Yuan Loan data with Japan reporting Machine Tool Orders and PPI.…

European markets shook off early morning weakness as well as a pullback at the US open to close down small on the day.  Volume slowed slightly as the session wore on and worked higher.  After a poor performance yesterday, Autos lead to the upside (the only sector higher for that matter), bouncing as the general market came off of lows. Tomorrow, Greece’s PM Tsipras and German/French leaders will meet again to try and hammer out some kind of agreement. TTN reporting the IMF commenting Europe should financially back Ukraine.  They said the IMF can lend to the war-torn country even if it cannot pay its creditors.  So there, Greece. Fiat -1.7% traded lower with GM head Barra reiterating they are not interested in a merger with the Italian manufacturer. Tesco -.7% trading lower as the co has invited roughly six firms, including KKR and Carlyle, to bid on their South Korean Homeplus unit. The division has been estimated to be valued at $6B.  Earlier, Hyundai Dept Stores was reported to be interested. Shipping equipment maker Neopost -2.5% fell with an unimpressive FY organic flat growth rate forecast. Tonight, China will release New Yuan Loan data with Japan reporting Machine Tool Orders and PPI.…

CAPIS International Summary June 9, 2015

News Trading Desk International Summary

International Summary

posted by Matthew Kiselica on 06/09/2015 at 6:47 am
by Matthew Kiselica on 06/09/2015

Asian Headlines The weakness in the West along with another disappointing Chinese macro release caused the region to trade lower across the board.  China’s May CPI rose 1.2% y/y compared with the 1.3% est. and April’s 1.5% increase.  That is a 4 month low.  The May PPI fell 4.6% y/y which is the 39th consecutive decline.  While such recent data has prompted easing hopes,  investors were more cautious today.  The market was also waiting to see what would happen with the MSCI rebalance announcements.  The banking sector saw some pullback after yesterday’s strong gains.  HSBC -0.4% initially rallied after the bank announced as many as 25,000 job cuts and will sell its Turkish & Brazilian unit with Bradesco flagged as the most likely buyer in Brazil. Domicile will be decided this year.  The stock then pared those gains towards the end of the session.  The job cuts had been flagged in the press last week. Macau gaming shares gave way with Sterne Agee data showing revenues are down 46% y/y thus far during June. Japan suffered from a stronger ¥ which traded better then 125 and comments from Economic Minister Amari.  He indicated the strong GDP showing from yesterday was…

Asian Headlines The weakness in the West along with another disappointing Chinese macro release caused the region to trade lower across the board.  China’s May CPI rose 1.2% y/y compared with the 1.3% est. and April’s 1.5% increase.  That is a 4 month low.  The May PPI fell 4.6% y/y which is the 39th consecutive decline.  While such recent data has prompted easing hopes,  investors were more cautious today.  The market was also waiting to see what would happen with the MSCI rebalance announcements.  The banking sector saw some pullback after yesterday’s strong gains.  HSBC -0.4% initially rallied after the bank announced as many as 25,000 job cuts and will sell its Turkish & Brazilian unit with Bradesco flagged as the most likely buyer in Brazil. Domicile will be decided this year.  The stock then pared those gains towards the end of the session.  The job cuts had been flagged in the press last week. Macau gaming shares gave way with Sterne Agee data showing revenues are down 46% y/y thus far during June. Japan suffered from a stronger ¥ which traded better then 125 and comments from Economic Minister Amari.  He indicated the strong GDP showing from yesterday was…

European Close June 8, 2015

News Trading Desk International Summary

International Summary

posted by Clayton Duff on 06/08/2015 at 11:56 am
by Clayton Duff on 06/08/2015

Most European indices finished near lows today with US markets not lending any positive sentiment.   Volumes were 14% lower with all sectors down except for Food/Bevvies.  Autos finished down 1.86%, with Basic Resources off 1.72%, and Chemicals weaker by 1.28%.  Apart from Obama speaking, nothing new from the G7.  The Euro has continued to rebound, retaking all that was lost on Friday’s sharp sell-off. Barclays closed 1.3% lower despite Stifel buying the firm’s US Wealth and Investment Mgmt that has a reported $56B in total client assets.  Barclays had purchased the firm in 2008 from Lehman Brothers Holdings. Saint Gobain -.1% as Apollo Global Mgmt looks to purchase the firms glass-packaging unit Verallia for €2.95B. Several analysts noted the amount was a bit more than expected as that should help with St Gobain’s purchase of Sika. Logitech -.7% closed down small post noting they will settle with the US SEC for roughly $3.25M over a financial statement investigation. Tonight, CPI/PPI due from China with Japanese Consumer Confidence expected.  Ausralian NAB biz readings out as well.  EZ GDP will be reported after the open with the UK releasing Trade balance info.  

Most European indices finished near lows today with US markets not lending any positive sentiment.   Volumes were 14% lower with all sectors down except for Food/Bevvies.  Autos finished down 1.86%, with Basic Resources off 1.72%, and Chemicals weaker by 1.28%.  Apart from Obama speaking, nothing new from the G7.  The Euro has continued to rebound, retaking all that was lost on Friday’s sharp sell-off. Barclays closed 1.3% lower despite Stifel buying the firm’s US Wealth and Investment Mgmt that has a reported $56B in total client assets.  Barclays had purchased the firm in 2008 from Lehman Brothers Holdings. Saint Gobain -.1% as Apollo Global Mgmt looks to purchase the firms glass-packaging unit Verallia for €2.95B. Several analysts noted the amount was a bit more than expected as that should help with St Gobain’s purchase of Sika. Logitech -.7% closed down small post noting they will settle with the US SEC for roughly $3.25M over a financial statement investigation. Tonight, CPI/PPI due from China with Japanese Consumer Confidence expected.  Ausralian NAB biz readings out as well.  EZ GDP will be reported after the open with the UK releasing Trade balance info.  

Implied Volatility Levels – US / Europe

News Trading Desk Volatility Monitor

Volatility Monitor

posted by CAPIS on 06/08/2015 at 8:15 am
by CAPIS on 06/08/2015

SPX futures are off 3.5 points to 2088.50 following European names to their lowest levels since March.  The strong jobs report on Friday may lead to a move higher in rates by the Fed in the fall.  The IMF has advised the Fed to wait until 2016 to move but that seems unlikely.  The spot VIX finished 14.21 on Friday.  The VIX futures are a mixed bag this morning awaiting a more definitive move in equities. The German 10-yr yields rose 34 bps last week, which was one of the largest weekly moves over the last two decades (Goldman).  The German DAX Index moved to a record just two months ago, only to fall 10% and hit a three month low on Friday.  And as we noted here last week, DAX 1-month IV is in the top 3% of three of three year readings.  Germany and US are disseminating quite different readings when looking at premium (vol) in the options for the DAX and SPX.  In fact, the same can be said of most every major index in Europe with respect to the SPX as they all continue to move in lock step with every bit of Greek news. Skew,…

SPX futures are off 3.5 points to 2088.50 following European names to their lowest levels since March.  The strong jobs report on Friday may lead to a move higher in rates by the Fed in the fall.  The IMF has advised the Fed to wait until 2016 to move but that seems unlikely.  The spot VIX finished 14.21 on Friday.  The VIX futures are a mixed bag this morning awaiting a more definitive move in equities. The German 10-yr yields rose 34 bps last week, which was one of the largest weekly moves over the last two decades (Goldman).  The German DAX Index moved to a record just two months ago, only to fall 10% and hit a three month low on Friday.  And as we noted here last week, DAX 1-month IV is in the top 3% of three of three year readings.  Germany and US are disseminating quite different readings when looking at premium (vol) in the options for the DAX and SPX.  In fact, the same can be said of most every major index in Europe with respect to the SPX as they all continue to move in lock step with every bit of Greek news. Skew,…

Post-NFP gives us dead air.

News Trading Desk Morning Macro News

Morning Macro News

posted by CAPIS on 06/08/2015 at 7:25 am
by CAPIS on 06/08/2015

Happy Monday, My Thursday comment expected us to find support at S2 / 2100, and we did… during the first hour. From there we quickly bounced higher to the 2110+, en route to what I thought would be a PDC test (as I wrote. The market had different designs, though, as negative comments about Greece and some other bits suddenly saw us switch direction back to 2100 / S2. This was tested going into the lunch hour, and then finely sliced through as sell-stops pushed us lower to testing the 2095 value area. We closed below 2100 and the 50 DMA: a negative Close for sure. Friday saw an in-line NFP, and relatively decent other eco, all which pushed our markets lower after the Open to test near 2085.67 (VERY close to the 100 DMA) where we quickly bounced back to test the PDC, and then make our HOD at the PP / 2100 level. From there we fell back to PDC and tested 2090 a few times into the Close where we settled lower by -0.14% to 2092.83. This was a -0.69% drop for the week. What we also saw with this equity move lower is a big move for…

Happy Monday, My Thursday comment expected us to find support at S2 / 2100, and we did… during the first hour. From there we quickly bounced higher to the 2110+, en route to what I thought would be a PDC test (as I wrote. The market had different designs, though, as negative comments about Greece and some other bits suddenly saw us switch direction back to 2100 / S2. This was tested going into the lunch hour, and then finely sliced through as sell-stops pushed us lower to testing the 2095 value area. We closed below 2100 and the 50 DMA: a negative Close for sure. Friday saw an in-line NFP, and relatively decent other eco, all which pushed our markets lower after the Open to test near 2085.67 (VERY close to the 100 DMA) where we quickly bounced back to test the PDC, and then make our HOD at the PP / 2100 level. From there we fell back to PDC and tested 2090 a few times into the Close where we settled lower by -0.14% to 2092.83. This was a -0.69% drop for the week. What we also saw with this equity move lower is a big move for…

CAPIS International Summary June 8th, 2015

News Trading Desk International Summary

International Summary

posted by Matthew Kiselica on 06/08/2015 at 3:07 am
by Matthew Kiselica on 06/08/2015

Asian Headlines The majority of the region was flat to down small while Greater China outperformed.  The gains in China were driven by 2 key items.   MSCI announces its index changes tomorrow and there are hopes Shanghai listed A shares will be added to the Emerging Market Index.  The banking sector is viewed to be one of the main beneficiaries and led the market.  The May trade surplus was $59.5b with exports falling 2.8% y/y vs. the estimate of  a 4% decline.  Imports fell 18.1% y/y vs. the market expectation of -9.6%.   That is the 7th consecutive monthly decline.  The softness in the data prompted hopes of further easing measures by the PBoC.  CSR Corp. and China CNR have completed their merger and are now CRRC Corp. +4.5%. Chow Tai Fook’s -6.5% FY15 earnings missed estimates and sales were softer in China, Hong Kong and Macau. Japan was essentially flat as GDP data caused worry about easing.  Q1 Final GDP expanded a robust 3.9% q/q well ahead of the preliminary 2.4% reading and expected gain to 2.8% q/q.  The April Current Account Surplus was ¥1.33t vs. consensus +¥1.69t.  Nomura lifted its Japanese stock targets citing the weak ¥ will raise…

Asian Headlines The majority of the region was flat to down small while Greater China outperformed.  The gains in China were driven by 2 key items.   MSCI announces its index changes tomorrow and there are hopes Shanghai listed A shares will be added to the Emerging Market Index.  The banking sector is viewed to be one of the main beneficiaries and led the market.  The May trade surplus was $59.5b with exports falling 2.8% y/y vs. the estimate of  a 4% decline.  Imports fell 18.1% y/y vs. the market expectation of -9.6%.   That is the 7th consecutive monthly decline.  The softness in the data prompted hopes of further easing measures by the PBoC.  CSR Corp. and China CNR have completed their merger and are now CRRC Corp. +4.5%. Chow Tai Fook’s -6.5% FY15 earnings missed estimates and sales were softer in China, Hong Kong and Macau. Japan was essentially flat as GDP data caused worry about easing.  Q1 Final GDP expanded a robust 3.9% q/q well ahead of the preliminary 2.4% reading and expected gain to 2.8% q/q.  The April Current Account Surplus was ¥1.33t vs. consensus +¥1.69t.  Nomura lifted its Japanese stock targets citing the weak ¥ will raise…

European Close June 5, 2015

News Trading Desk International Summary

International Summary

posted by Clayton Duff on 06/05/2015 at 11:37 am
by Clayton Duff on 06/05/2015

European indices traded within a fairly tight range today, albeit over a percent lower than yesterday’s close.  As the day wore on, volume continued to lag, finishing down 6% on the day. Energy and Basic Resource names finished up small with Financials, Chemicals, and Personal Goods all lower by at least 150bps. Little help from the US despite NFP’s coming better than expected.  Treasuries are selling off with European bonds seeing selling as well.  There is not much to add to the Greek situation with Fitch saying the bundling of their IMF payments to month-end has no implications to the country’s CCC sovereign rating. Deutsche Bank -1.7% lower as the firm noted they are looking potential money laundering by some Russian clients.  Initially they believe up to $6B in transactions over four years may have occurred. Syngenta -3.3% lower with word the firm would lose another line of biz if Monsanto is to win approval to acquire the firm. Fiat Chrysler’s -3.3% CEO again talking up industry consolidation  noting they are in talks with many in the sector.  Marchionne said he would stay on until after 2018 if needed if a deal is on the table.  He noted Ferrari cannot be IPO’d before…

European indices traded within a fairly tight range today, albeit over a percent lower than yesterday’s close.  As the day wore on, volume continued to lag, finishing down 6% on the day. Energy and Basic Resource names finished up small with Financials, Chemicals, and Personal Goods all lower by at least 150bps. Little help from the US despite NFP’s coming better than expected.  Treasuries are selling off with European bonds seeing selling as well.  There is not much to add to the Greek situation with Fitch saying the bundling of their IMF payments to month-end has no implications to the country’s CCC sovereign rating. Deutsche Bank -1.7% lower as the firm noted they are looking potential money laundering by some Russian clients.  Initially they believe up to $6B in transactions over four years may have occurred. Syngenta -3.3% lower with word the firm would lose another line of biz if Monsanto is to win approval to acquire the firm. Fiat Chrysler’s -3.3% CEO again talking up industry consolidation  noting they are in talks with many in the sector.  Marchionne said he would stay on until after 2018 if needed if a deal is on the table.  He noted Ferrari cannot be IPO’d before…

CAPIS International Summary June 5, 2015

News Trading Desk International Summary

International Summary

posted by Clayton Duff on 06/05/2015 at 7:22 am
by Clayton Duff on 06/05/2015

Asian Headlines Following on yesterday’s Greek news, most of the core Asian markets ended the day down small; however, China closed to the upside.  A number of the peripheral markets also managed to move higher.  China spent most of the session higher but saw a similar pattern to what occurred yesterday albeit with less volatility.  Shanghai came under pressure as the mid-day break approached and the selling continued as the afternoon trading commenced.  After hitting a low of -1%, the market steadily rallied and spent the balance of the day to the upside, finishing in the green.  Overall, Shanghai swung c. 3.0% intraday and closed above 5,000.  The market did see some further margin lending tightening from the Street. A PBoC official declared the Shanghai Free Trade Zone (FTZ) has met the conditions for full Yuan convertibility.  Great Wall Motor’s -8.5% May sales were 65,400 vehicles vs. 51,837 y/y. China Vanke’s +2.3% May sales were 20.7b yuan up from April’s 17.8b yuan.  Macau casino shares gained following Citi’s comments from yesterday that gaming trends improved during May. Japan spent the entire session lower but did pare losses over the last hour.  The combination of Greek concerns coupled with the comments from BoJ member Harada made…

Asian Headlines Following on yesterday’s Greek news, most of the core Asian markets ended the day down small; however, China closed to the upside.  A number of the peripheral markets also managed to move higher.  China spent most of the session higher but saw a similar pattern to what occurred yesterday albeit with less volatility.  Shanghai came under pressure as the mid-day break approached and the selling continued as the afternoon trading commenced.  After hitting a low of -1%, the market steadily rallied and spent the balance of the day to the upside, finishing in the green.  Overall, Shanghai swung c. 3.0% intraday and closed above 5,000.  The market did see some further margin lending tightening from the Street. A PBoC official declared the Shanghai Free Trade Zone (FTZ) has met the conditions for full Yuan convertibility.  Great Wall Motor’s -8.5% May sales were 65,400 vehicles vs. 51,837 y/y. China Vanke’s +2.3% May sales were 20.7b yuan up from April’s 17.8b yuan.  Macau casino shares gained following Citi’s comments from yesterday that gaming trends improved during May. Japan spent the entire session lower but did pare losses over the last hour.  The combination of Greek concerns coupled with the comments from BoJ member Harada made…

European Close June 4, 2015

News Trading Desk International Summary

International Summary

posted by Clayton Duff on 06/04/2015 at 11:43 am
by Clayton Duff on 06/04/2015

A volatile session today with volume slowing as the session wore on.  European indices saw some strength post the US open but quickly turned south again. Like earlier, all sectors are lower with Basic Resources, Utilities, and Energy all finishing down over 2%. On the Greek front, bonds rebounded post more word that Greece will indeed make their IMF payment tomorrow.  At one point, the 10 year Bund nearly reached 1% but they rebounded to yield .835% currently.  Concerning the offer to Athens, EU creditors are looking to an increase to the VAT tax plus pension cuts.  More sales and privatizations are being requested.  In return, the EFSF will be able to provide €11B to cover July and August payments. Additionally, the IMF today cut US growth forecasts asking the Fed to hold off until next year any rate increases.  They cited delicate international portfolios for the request. ABB +3.57% higher on word of an increased investment by Cevian Capital. Ericsson +2.4% a standout today as JPM upped the name to Overweight citing an upswing in US wireless infrastructure spending post a cyclical low. They see spending starting to increase in the 2H with an upswing expected next year. Saipem -13% on a…

A volatile session today with volume slowing as the session wore on.  European indices saw some strength post the US open but quickly turned south again. Like earlier, all sectors are lower with Basic Resources, Utilities, and Energy all finishing down over 2%. On the Greek front, bonds rebounded post more word that Greece will indeed make their IMF payment tomorrow.  At one point, the 10 year Bund nearly reached 1% but they rebounded to yield .835% currently.  Concerning the offer to Athens, EU creditors are looking to an increase to the VAT tax plus pension cuts.  More sales and privatizations are being requested.  In return, the EFSF will be able to provide €11B to cover July and August payments. Additionally, the IMF today cut US growth forecasts asking the Fed to hold off until next year any rate increases.  They cited delicate international portfolios for the request. ABB +3.57% higher on word of an increased investment by Cevian Capital. Ericsson +2.4% a standout today as JPM upped the name to Overweight citing an upswing in US wireless infrastructure spending post a cyclical low. They see spending starting to increase in the 2H with an upswing expected next year. Saipem -13% on a…

Greece and NFP

News Trading Desk Morning Macro News

Morning Macro News

posted by CAPIS on 06/04/2015 at 7:23 am
by CAPIS on 06/04/2015

Happy Thursday everyone, As I wrote Tuesday, I figured money would find support on the SPX near the 2100 & 50 DMA levels. We went exactly there and were able to get a nice little rise off them back to the 2117 level for highs (higher than my expectations of PDC) before dropping back to the the PDC and Open areas into the Close. It formed a nice little doji on the day; still showing that the market has no idea what’s next (doji, which is a flat open/close candle on the daily, typically states that neither bulls nor bears are in charge). Wednesday saw some up and down eco, which the market initially found positive. After oil inventories were released, though, the market got tired of 2120 and dropped to its 2110 level for support, with an eventual Close higher by +0.21% to 2114.07; right on its 20 DMA. So the daily chart shows us testing above the 10 DMA to 2120 with failure back to the flat 5 & 20 DMAs, with the MT trend 50 DMA at 2100 waiting to add support. CHOP CHOP! We’ve seen a nice sell-off in the 10-year, which lines up perfectly with…

Happy Thursday everyone, As I wrote Tuesday, I figured money would find support on the SPX near the 2100 & 50 DMA levels. We went exactly there and were able to get a nice little rise off them back to the 2117 level for highs (higher than my expectations of PDC) before dropping back to the the PDC and Open areas into the Close. It formed a nice little doji on the day; still showing that the market has no idea what’s next (doji, which is a flat open/close candle on the daily, typically states that neither bulls nor bears are in charge). Wednesday saw some up and down eco, which the market initially found positive. After oil inventories were released, though, the market got tired of 2120 and dropped to its 2110 level for support, with an eventual Close higher by +0.21% to 2114.07; right on its 20 DMA. So the daily chart shows us testing above the 10 DMA to 2120 with failure back to the flat 5 & 20 DMAs, with the MT trend 50 DMA at 2100 waiting to add support. CHOP CHOP! We’ve seen a nice sell-off in the 10-year, which lines up perfectly with…

CAPIS International Summary June 4, 2015

News Trading Desk International Summary

International Summary

posted by Clayton Duff on 06/04/2015 at 7:14 am
by Clayton Duff on 06/04/2015

Asian Headlines It was quite a day for Chinese traders with the major indices swinging to and fro.  The Shanghai Composite was lower by over 5% in almost a straight line over a very brief period that straddled the mid-day break after Guo Sheng Secs. ceased margin lending to retail investors for certain securities.  However, the market steadily rebounded over the rest of the afternoon and managed to close higher.  (See chart below)  Helping the bounce were comments from a PBoC official indicating the deposit rate cap may be “soon” be removed.  Thus, banks led the advance.  BoCom +5.5% had its ownership reform plan approved by authorities.  Byd +8.8% resumed trading following its private placement announcement. It was tough day Down Under following disappointment with the April Trade Deficit and Retail Sales.  The trade deficit reached an all time record of -$A3.9b vs. -A$2.1b expected and was the 13th consecutive monthly deficit.  Retail sales were flat m/m marking a 1 year low with the market expecting a gain of +0.3%.  All sectors were lower with most by well over 1% as basic resources, retail and banks experienced some of the steepest declines.   NAB -2.0% is rumored to be in talks to sell its…

Asian Headlines It was quite a day for Chinese traders with the major indices swinging to and fro.  The Shanghai Composite was lower by over 5% in almost a straight line over a very brief period that straddled the mid-day break after Guo Sheng Secs. ceased margin lending to retail investors for certain securities.  However, the market steadily rebounded over the rest of the afternoon and managed to close higher.  (See chart below)  Helping the bounce were comments from a PBoC official indicating the deposit rate cap may be “soon” be removed.  Thus, banks led the advance.  BoCom +5.5% had its ownership reform plan approved by authorities.  Byd +8.8% resumed trading following its private placement announcement. It was tough day Down Under following disappointment with the April Trade Deficit and Retail Sales.  The trade deficit reached an all time record of -$A3.9b vs. -A$2.1b expected and was the 13th consecutive monthly deficit.  Retail sales were flat m/m marking a 1 year low with the market expecting a gain of +0.3%.  All sectors were lower with most by well over 1% as basic resources, retail and banks experienced some of the steepest declines.   NAB -2.0% is rumored to be in talks to sell its…

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