Trading Desk

1911 total posts

April Fool’s Day!

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Morning Macro News

posted by CAPIS on 04/01/2015 at 7:24 am
by CAPIS on 04/01/2015

Happy April Fool’s everyone! I missed yesterday dealing with some plumbing problems at the house, so let’s recap the EOM/EOQ and then get into what we can expect from today. Monday we rose higher than my expectations from the morning (I thought we’d top out at R3 near 2077 or so). Instead we broke through R3 (and the 20 DMA) during the first 10 minutes! We then tested the 10 DMA from below for resistance, finding some there for the first 2.5 hours with support at R3. When noon lunch began we broke the morning highs and slowly made our way north to a HOD of 2088.97 before settling back at 2086.24 (right on my white upward sloping trend line in the below “SPX Current” chart). Then we got Tuesday and the EOM/EOQ volume. Tuesday saw us give up most of those gains from Monday. We opened near the weekly PP (around 2074), found our support, rose to break the daily PP en route to marking our HOD with a test, from below, of the 10 DMA (resistance again). We then just bounced around for the majority of the day until the last hour when selling pressure saw us break…

Happy April Fool’s everyone! I missed yesterday dealing with some plumbing problems at the house, so let’s recap the EOM/EOQ and then get into what we can expect from today. Monday we rose higher than my expectations from the morning (I thought we’d top out at R3 near 2077 or so). Instead we broke through R3 (and the 20 DMA) during the first 10 minutes! We then tested the 10 DMA from below for resistance, finding some there for the first 2.5 hours with support at R3. When noon lunch began we broke the morning highs and slowly made our way north to a HOD of 2088.97 before settling back at 2086.24 (right on my white upward sloping trend line in the below “SPX Current” chart). Then we got Tuesday and the EOM/EOQ volume. Tuesday saw us give up most of those gains from Monday. We opened near the weekly PP (around 2074), found our support, rose to break the daily PP en route to marking our HOD with a test, from below, of the 10 DMA (resistance again). We then just bounced around for the majority of the day until the last hour when selling pressure saw us break…

EOM/EOQ

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Morning Macro News

posted by CAPIS on 03/30/2015 at 7:31 am
by CAPIS on 03/30/2015

Good Monday morning to you all, I plan on writing today, Wednesday, and Friday, so let’s see if my creative juices can give you something interesting to trade into the last day of the month: tomorrow. Surprise surprise! Last week we closed just slightly above the 2014 level of 2058.90; otherwise known as up +0.10% YTD. It was a -2.23% decrease for the week after rising +2.66% the week before. The 2014 Close continues to act like a nice value level / gravitational force for anyone NOT looking to face any specific direction with volume. Here’s my two cents: with it being the End of Month (EOM) / End of Quarter (EOQ) tomorrow, and a four-day work week with the Good Friday holiday, I’m expecting some fun Market On Open (MOO) and Market On Close (MOC) volume tomorrow, and then Wednesday volume dissipates into the 3-day weekend. This is a pretty big week for eco with ADP Non-Farm Employment change Wednesday with ISM Manufacturing, as well as NFP / the Unemployment Rate on Friday… but we won’t be trading that information until next Monday. So! With S&P futures higher this morning due to easing speculation as China’s central bank chief…

Good Monday morning to you all, I plan on writing today, Wednesday, and Friday, so let’s see if my creative juices can give you something interesting to trade into the last day of the month: tomorrow. Surprise surprise! Last week we closed just slightly above the 2014 level of 2058.90; otherwise known as up +0.10% YTD. It was a -2.23% decrease for the week after rising +2.66% the week before. The 2014 Close continues to act like a nice value level / gravitational force for anyone NOT looking to face any specific direction with volume. Here’s my two cents: with it being the End of Month (EOM) / End of Quarter (EOQ) tomorrow, and a four-day work week with the Good Friday holiday, I’m expecting some fun Market On Open (MOO) and Market On Close (MOC) volume tomorrow, and then Wednesday volume dissipates into the 3-day weekend. This is a pretty big week for eco with ADP Non-Farm Employment change Wednesday with ISM Manufacturing, as well as NFP / the Unemployment Rate on Friday… but we won’t be trading that information until next Monday. So! With S&P futures higher this morning due to easing speculation as China’s central bank chief…

GDP Friday

News Trading Desk Morning Macro News

Morning Macro News

posted by CAPIS on 03/27/2015 at 7:06 am
by CAPIS on 03/27/2015

Happy Friday to you all! Well what a fun little day we had yesterday. I mentioned in my Thursday comment I thought we’d see 2040, as that is the most likely place volume will give support (March 10-13). We had closed three days in a row, Monday-Wednesday, at the Low of Day (LOD), with Wednesday’s Close just a smidge off the 2014 Close (i.e. flat line) at 2058.90. So pre-market Thursday, futures moved to an overnight Globex LOD of 2033.25, which in cash terms is 2041.75ish (i.e. just a couple points above the big 2040 support). It then moved to its S1 / 2040 level and hung out there from 6:00-8:00 am; finding value. As soon as SPX opened we rose to bounce off SPX S1 and 2050 (the middle). shorts decided to hold it below 2060 for the first hour and go to test / make new lows at 2045.50, which lined up with the stop-flushing-tick that ES made around 8:35 am. SPX immediately turned around and made it known that 2050 / S1 was not going to go quietly. After three falling days (which from Monday’s high to Thursday’s Low equaled a -3.2% decrease), and being ST very…

Happy Friday to you all! Well what a fun little day we had yesterday. I mentioned in my Thursday comment I thought we’d see 2040, as that is the most likely place volume will give support (March 10-13). We had closed three days in a row, Monday-Wednesday, at the Low of Day (LOD), with Wednesday’s Close just a smidge off the 2014 Close (i.e. flat line) at 2058.90. So pre-market Thursday, futures moved to an overnight Globex LOD of 2033.25, which in cash terms is 2041.75ish (i.e. just a couple points above the big 2040 support). It then moved to its S1 / 2040 level and hung out there from 6:00-8:00 am; finding value. As soon as SPX opened we rose to bounce off SPX S1 and 2050 (the middle). shorts decided to hold it below 2060 for the first hour and go to test / make new lows at 2045.50, which lined up with the stop-flushing-tick that ES made around 8:35 am. SPX immediately turned around and made it known that 2050 / S1 was not going to go quietly. After three falling days (which from Monday’s high to Thursday’s Low equaled a -3.2% decrease), and being ST very…

Welcome to the Disco

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Morning Macro News

posted by CAPIS on 03/26/2015 at 7:32 am
by CAPIS on 03/26/2015

Happy Thursday to you! So! Let’s recap what’s happened with our SPX dropping precipitously. S&P futures were looking up pre-market, and I presumed it was pointing to a further increase into the EOM/EOQ to follow the Fed from last week. It ended up moving sideways most of the day, and then had a big volume move lower to Close at the lows (down -.17%). Looking at the daily chart, it appeared to form a “Shooting Star” candle, which can point to a reversal in trend (i.e. we rose form 2040 to 2115 in eight business days). SPX flirted with 2100 support the first part of the afternoon, and we rose to the PP finding resistance there going into lunch. After lunch, the market slowly made its way lower to break below 2100 and AGAIN Close at the Low of Day (LOD); down -0.61%. Again, a failure of some big supports, and also a relative “confirmation” of the Shooting Star candle from Monday. Here comes the sell-off! There was an ABYSMAL Durable Goods Orders report pre-market, so SPX started by testing the 10 & 20 DMA’s in the morning, finding some support on them and S1. It bounced twice off them to…

Happy Thursday to you! So! Let’s recap what’s happened with our SPX dropping precipitously. S&P futures were looking up pre-market, and I presumed it was pointing to a further increase into the EOM/EOQ to follow the Fed from last week. It ended up moving sideways most of the day, and then had a big volume move lower to Close at the lows (down -.17%). Looking at the daily chart, it appeared to form a “Shooting Star” candle, which can point to a reversal in trend (i.e. we rose form 2040 to 2115 in eight business days). SPX flirted with 2100 support the first part of the afternoon, and we rose to the PP finding resistance there going into lunch. After lunch, the market slowly made its way lower to break below 2100 and AGAIN Close at the Low of Day (LOD); down -0.61%. Again, a failure of some big supports, and also a relative “confirmation” of the Shooting Star candle from Monday. Here comes the sell-off! There was an ABYSMAL Durable Goods Orders report pre-market, so SPX started by testing the 10 & 20 DMA’s in the morning, finding some support on them and S1. It bounced twice off them to…

March Madness: March 23, 2015

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Morning Macro News

posted by CAPIS on 03/23/2015 at 8:41 am
by CAPIS on 03/23/2015

Good Morning! First, and foremost, today would have been my dad’s 80th birthday. My fam and I love and miss you. Now let’s talk about this market. It, once again, has proven quite resilient. The FOMC rate decision and statement focused primarily on the reduction of their Fed Funds forecast for Dec 2015 & 2016. This decrease was seen as a great thing as “everyone” (said loosely) now assumes the Fed will raise rates at an appropriate (slower) pace. We still have many hurdles ahead (wage growth, inflation, etc.) that will need to be seen for us to raise. Hopefully. Speaking of inflation, the USD (which fell precipitously post-Fed, and essentially pushed all products higher i.e. equities, treasuries, commodities, etc.) is lower again today. The dollar index (DXY) reached above 100 over the last two weeks, and since has moved lower to 97.40 currently. In tandem, the EUR was testing below 1.05 and is currently testing 1.09 from below (after a little “flash market” for it last Wednesday where it rose above 1.10 briefly after the Close). This week we are looking forward to some core inflation tomorrow with New Home Sales; Durable Goods on Wednesday; weekly Jobless Claims Thursday;…

Good Morning! First, and foremost, today would have been my dad’s 80th birthday. My fam and I love and miss you. Now let’s talk about this market. It, once again, has proven quite resilient. The FOMC rate decision and statement focused primarily on the reduction of their Fed Funds forecast for Dec 2015 & 2016. This decrease was seen as a great thing as “everyone” (said loosely) now assumes the Fed will raise rates at an appropriate (slower) pace. We still have many hurdles ahead (wage growth, inflation, etc.) that will need to be seen for us to raise. Hopefully. Speaking of inflation, the USD (which fell precipitously post-Fed, and essentially pushed all products higher i.e. equities, treasuries, commodities, etc.) is lower again today. The dollar index (DXY) reached above 100 over the last two weeks, and since has moved lower to 97.40 currently. In tandem, the EUR was testing below 1.05 and is currently testing 1.09 from below (after a little “flash market” for it last Wednesday where it rose above 1.10 briefly after the Close). This week we are looking forward to some core inflation tomorrow with New Home Sales; Durable Goods on Wednesday; weekly Jobless Claims Thursday;…

NFP Friday: February 6, 2015

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Morning Macro News

posted by CAPIS on 02/06/2015 at 9:39 am
by CAPIS on 02/06/2015

TGIF! So the SPX has slowly made its way back up to the 2014 Close / 2050-2060 area (Click on my “SPX Current” chart below for a zoomed in view). The daily chart printed a doji on the first day of the year (1/2), tested it from below on the 8th, then again on the 22nd, and now yesterday. To note, the 22nd was the highest Close this year at 2063.15. If one is to posit that this sideways nowhere-ville will continue, then one can “predict” that we’ll see another drop like we have in every other instance this year. THAT being said…  eventually trends stop.  So let’s see what kind of boom they bring. If it’s weak and we drop, look for support near the 50 DMA at 2044 (just below S1) with big selling pressure taking us to S2 around 2036 (where the 5 DMA will be). If it’s strong and we pop, then look for resistance at 2075 (where R2 is). I will say, it would be a relative “win” if we’re able to close flat to positive today, as it’s counter to what we’ve seen recently. I, personally, think there’s a fantastic chance NFP spikes… and if there’s EVER a…

TGIF! So the SPX has slowly made its way back up to the 2014 Close / 2050-2060 area (Click on my “SPX Current” chart below for a zoomed in view). The daily chart printed a doji on the first day of the year (1/2), tested it from below on the 8th, then again on the 22nd, and now yesterday. To note, the 22nd was the highest Close this year at 2063.15. If one is to posit that this sideways nowhere-ville will continue, then one can “predict” that we’ll see another drop like we have in every other instance this year. THAT being said…  eventually trends stop.  So let’s see what kind of boom they bring. If it’s weak and we drop, look for support near the 50 DMA at 2044 (just below S1) with big selling pressure taking us to S2 around 2036 (where the 5 DMA will be). If it’s strong and we pop, then look for resistance at 2075 (where R2 is). I will say, it would be a relative “win” if we’re able to close flat to positive today, as it’s counter to what we’ve seen recently. I, personally, think there’s a fantastic chance NFP spikes… and if there’s EVER a…

SPX Dividend Yield vs. 10-Year Yield

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Morning Macro News

posted by CAPIS on 02/05/2015 at 12:36 pm
by CAPIS on 02/05/2015

I sent a little blurb to my desk and wanted to share with you. There are many a pontificator whom have already stated this over the last month (Bespoke comes to mind), but I wanted to enter the fray with my own 2 cents. Here’s a chart of the SPX from 1995-2015. –  White line is SPX price. –  Green line is 10-year yield. –  Purple line is SPX dividend yield. –  Spread on SPX div vs. 10-year yield shown in bottom pane. As you can see, over the last 20 years, anytime the SPX dividend yield has been higher than the 10-year note yield, it has been a preamble to a significant rise in the SPX. The last time we had this phenomena, besides the two you see in 2009 and 2012-2013, was 1962. Below is a chart of the SPX from 1960-1970. Basically, while each time we’re a different picture / economy, etc., there’s historical precedence to buy SPX / risk assets at these times for the long-haul (even at these inflated price). Of course… timing is everything. And these three instances all depict moments of interesting political and economic turmoils (President Kennedy steel crisis in the early 60’s; Financial…

I sent a little blurb to my desk and wanted to share with you. There are many a pontificator whom have already stated this over the last month (Bespoke comes to mind), but I wanted to enter the fray with my own 2 cents. Here’s a chart of the SPX from 1995-2015. –  White line is SPX price. –  Green line is 10-year yield. –  Purple line is SPX dividend yield. –  Spread on SPX div vs. 10-year yield shown in bottom pane. As you can see, over the last 20 years, anytime the SPX dividend yield has been higher than the 10-year note yield, it has been a preamble to a significant rise in the SPX. The last time we had this phenomena, besides the two you see in 2009 and 2012-2013, was 1962. Below is a chart of the SPX from 1960-1970. Basically, while each time we’re a different picture / economy, etc., there’s historical precedence to buy SPX / risk assets at these times for the long-haul (even at these inflated price). Of course… timing is everything. And these three instances all depict moments of interesting political and economic turmoils (President Kennedy steel crisis in the early 60’s; Financial…

Which Way Wednesday: February 4, 2015

News Trading Desk Morning Macro News

Morning Macro News

posted by CAPIS on 02/04/2015 at 10:09 am
by CAPIS on 02/04/2015

Good Wednesday Morning to ya! This is my first post directly into our new website, so bear with me as to look and feel. I’ll intentionally keep it short(er) than what I typically do, but hopefully you find the new structure of the comments and charts easier to manage. If you do have suggestions, comments, critiques: by all means please let me know. So Monday the SPX made a new Low of Year (LOY) near the 200 DMA on the daily chart, and had a nice bullish candle off lows to close near 2020. Tuesday saw more of the same with us gapping higher, stair stepping lower to test the 10 and 20 DMA’s for support into lunch, and then lifting off again to test R2 and the monthly R1 into the Close. We settled almost on our High of Day (HOD); up 1.44% to 2050.03. That’s two days in a row of positive 100 bp moves, and we’re now 8 points shy of going positive (again) for the year (2014 Close is 2058.90). Even with the negative January Close (down -3.10% to start the year) we are now just a hair off positive on the year. February has started off…

Good Wednesday Morning to ya! This is my first post directly into our new website, so bear with me as to look and feel. I’ll intentionally keep it short(er) than what I typically do, but hopefully you find the new structure of the comments and charts easier to manage. If you do have suggestions, comments, critiques: by all means please let me know. So Monday the SPX made a new Low of Year (LOY) near the 200 DMA on the daily chart, and had a nice bullish candle off lows to close near 2020. Tuesday saw more of the same with us gapping higher, stair stepping lower to test the 10 and 20 DMA’s for support into lunch, and then lifting off again to test R2 and the monthly R1 into the Close. We settled almost on our High of Day (HOD); up 1.44% to 2050.03. That’s two days in a row of positive 100 bp moves, and we’re now 8 points shy of going positive (again) for the year (2014 Close is 2058.90). Even with the negative January Close (down -3.10% to start the year) we are now just a hair off positive on the year. February has started off…

January 23, 2015

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Morning Macro News

posted by CAPIS on 01/23/2015 at 7:05 am
by CAPIS on 01/23/2015

Well yesterday’s action was excellent post the ECB QE announcement. The general facts are that it will be €60B / month, for 18 months (about €1.1 trillion), with 20% mutual risk sharing in the hopes that deflation can be avoided.  Now! What this does for our markets is really different. Basically this allows for more carry trading as JPY & EUR get weaker and investments move to “less risky” risk assets (i.e. US assets). I think oil futures would be higher, but because the USD is strengthening so much it’s finding it hard to climb.  SPX, yesterday, opened at 2040 and found immediate selling to test the PDC level, and then the Pivot Point (PP) at 2027.48 (the upward sloping 5 & 10 DMAs were there too on the daily chart). The market found its mojo again as selling abated and buyers rushed in at better than PDC prices. We climbed and rose above R1 (where the 20 & 50 DMAs on the daily chart were) to test 2050 from below where we found some resistance during lunch. That was quickly washed away as buy-stops were hit on shorts in the afternoon, and the market squeezed higher to test, and…

Well yesterday’s action was excellent post the ECB QE announcement. The general facts are that it will be €60B / month, for 18 months (about €1.1 trillion), with 20% mutual risk sharing in the hopes that deflation can be avoided.  Now! What this does for our markets is really different. Basically this allows for more carry trading as JPY & EUR get weaker and investments move to “less risky” risk assets (i.e. US assets). I think oil futures would be higher, but because the USD is strengthening so much it’s finding it hard to climb.  SPX, yesterday, opened at 2040 and found immediate selling to test the PDC level, and then the Pivot Point (PP) at 2027.48 (the upward sloping 5 & 10 DMAs were there too on the daily chart). The market found its mojo again as selling abated and buyers rushed in at better than PDC prices. We climbed and rose above R1 (where the 20 & 50 DMAs on the daily chart were) to test 2050 from below where we found some resistance during lunch. That was quickly washed away as buy-stops were hit on shorts in the afternoon, and the market squeezed higher to test, and…

January 21, 2015

News Trading Desk Morning Macro News

Morning Macro News

posted by CAPIS on 01/21/2015 at 6:56 am
by CAPIS on 01/21/2015

The SPX opened higher with futures, and immediately made their HOD at 2028.94. We fell the first 30 minutes below PDC to test 2010 support / SPX Pivot Point (PP). After the Initial Balance (first hour range) was set, the market decided to test below the IB to 2005 (which was 2000 and the PP for ESH5).  From there the selling pressure was exhausted and we went back to value at 2010. After hanging through lunch, Mr. Market decided to take a few steps higher to test, and break through with buy-stops, PDC. 2025 resisted into the Close, and we settled slightly higher by 0.15% to 2022.55.  All in not a bad recovery off lows to positive, with resistance at the 150% extension level, from the financial crisis, of 2030.74, but also not a resoundingly bullish move either. The market is basically finding support slowly and is hanging near flat ST (the 5/10/20 DMAs), MT (50 & 100 DMAs), and LT (200 DMA) trend lines.  As I stated Tuesday, 2000 is holding so far and let’s see if earnings / ECB can push us to the 2050 level again, with a test of the 2014 Close @ 2058.90. To Note:…

The SPX opened higher with futures, and immediately made their HOD at 2028.94. We fell the first 30 minutes below PDC to test 2010 support / SPX Pivot Point (PP). After the Initial Balance (first hour range) was set, the market decided to test below the IB to 2005 (which was 2000 and the PP for ESH5).  From there the selling pressure was exhausted and we went back to value at 2010. After hanging through lunch, Mr. Market decided to take a few steps higher to test, and break through with buy-stops, PDC. 2025 resisted into the Close, and we settled slightly higher by 0.15% to 2022.55.  All in not a bad recovery off lows to positive, with resistance at the 150% extension level, from the financial crisis, of 2030.74, but also not a resoundingly bullish move either. The market is basically finding support slowly and is hanging near flat ST (the 5/10/20 DMAs), MT (50 & 100 DMAs), and LT (200 DMA) trend lines.  As I stated Tuesday, 2000 is holding so far and let’s see if earnings / ECB can push us to the 2050 level again, with a test of the 2014 Close @ 2058.90. To Note:…

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