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Good Morning, The SPX has worked itself into a nice looking wedge the last two months, as I mentioned Monday, as you can see in my “SPX Current” chart below. We’re almost through Peak Earnings Season, so I’m eagerly awaiting the moment it pops out of it, with volume, either up or down. As Mr. Miyagi would say, “Patience, Daniel san!” I truly don’t have much to add like I normally do. Monday we gained back almost all of Friday’s drop; bouncing off the flat 20 & 50 DMA’s, as the market continues to go sideways in a process of making higher lows and lower highs (a wedge, if you will). You can draw this wedge on your chart in any way you like, as it tells the same story: the market is looking for direction. It needs a catalyst. Nothing has happened yet. There’s no major eco today, again, so I’m looking for further tests of the downside to find support at either S2 @ 2085.18, or a test of the lower part of the wedge (where the 20 & 50 DMAs are) near 2080. Hopefully you’re long near 2040, hedged to the downside, and waiting. Put some Christopher…

Good Morning! Well another interesting way to close out the week as Friday gave us all a look at the potential for downside in equities… but did it really do much? The SPX sliced through supports on the daily chart with a huge drop to start the morning to S3 during the first hour! This was mostly predicated on the move in China to curb margin trading. SPX hung around this S3 / 2080-2085 level for the majority of the day, lining up with its 20 & 50 DMAs on the daily chart as well. It had one small move lower going into the 2:00 pm big boy hours to see if shorts would continue to lean that way; but it found support at the 2075 level (from earlier this month). It also put us slightly ST oversold on the daily chart for the first time in weeks. SPX closed lower Friday by -1.13% to 2081.18, which was -0.99% for the week. Our grind sideways continues with all ST and MT trends flat, still. SPX is finding resistance near 2100, and support near 2050. Same story different day. We’re still quite in the middle of Peak Earnings Season with a…

Good Morning! Monday the SPX opened higher, marking a HOD at 2107.65 during the first hour… and then began the sell-off. As I mentioned that morning, it wouldn’t surprise me if the 2100 level (which has been a good short for a while now) was a place that people take profits / hedge / renew shorts going into earnings. The SPX took the bait and started a sell-off that morning from R1 to test 2100, then the PP, then S1, until we closed at the LOD; down -46 bps to 2092.43. This was not a particularly scary sell-off, though, and the market is still in the 2080-2100 resistance / value range. Tuesday we saw some weaker eco put a little fear in the morning hearts as SPX dropped to make LODs at 2083.24… which, looking at the daily chart, is the 10, 20, and 50 DMA’s! SPX loved that support and quickly made its way back to the PDC level by 11:00 am. From there we slowly made our way to the PP to make a HOD; going sideways at 2095 for the majority of the day with a close up +16 bps to 2095.84. So while the daily chart…

Good Morning everyone! I’ve been out the past few days dealing with plumbing issues, but that’s now resolved and the market is getting curious-or… Wednesday, the market followed my general thesis from my morning comment; hanging around the PP / 2080 level going into the FOMC Meeting minutes. With some volatility during hte day, ultimately we closed in that Point of Control (POC) level of 2080 (close was 2081.90). Thursday gave us some minor profit taking to start the day, bouncing back to the PP and PDC levels for testing going into lunch, and then a lift-off the last hour to break the morning high with the GE news (also energy names were higher all day). Now we’re hanging out pre-market with S&P futures up 2.00 points to 2087.75 (which is 2095 for spot). Futures were mostly flat overnight until 6:00 am when we saw a move to test a Globex High of Day (HOD) of 2090.50 which is 2098 on SPX. That marks the highs on SPX, pre-market, at R1 (2098.23) which is in the 2080-2100 resistance level, going into Peak Earnings Season, I’ve been writing about. Now, this is a pretty nice move in my book going into Peak…

Good Morning, Non-Farm Payrolls hit Good Friday morning… and were not so good. Surveys expected a +245k increase, while we came in well short at 126k (almost half what was expected!). They also revised the previous month’s lower by -30k. For the short amount of time equity index futures were open on Friday, they dropped to 2040 in a hurry. Not surprisingly, bonds rallied (10-year yield dropped from a 1.92 to a 1.80 Low Of Day (LOD) before reaching back to 1.83ish). With data trailing even the most pessimistic forecasts, speculation that the Fed will raise rates much later than originally expected is increasing. Concern over corporate profits getting worse will only be exacerbated if the economy appears weaker than we want. So! With today being Easter Monday, and the majority of Europe is closed for business, volume’s (even with the NFP number from Friday) should be below average. We’re near 2040 support, so any move lower to that level on light volume and I’m a general buyer. If we break 2040, on volume, then I”m looking to the 200 DMA and 2000 tests for next big daily chart supports. ESM5 is trading lower by -15.50 points (2044) vs. Thursday’s Close, hanging around…

Good Monday morning to you all, I plan on writing today, Wednesday, and Friday, so let’s see if my creative juices can give you something interesting to trade into the last day of the month: tomorrow. Surprise surprise! Last week we closed just slightly above the 2014 level of 2058.90; otherwise known as up +0.10% YTD. It was a -2.23% decrease for the week after rising +2.66% the week before. The 2014 Close continues to act like a nice value level / gravitational force for anyone NOT looking to face any specific direction with volume. Here’s my two cents: with it being the End of Month (EOM) / End of Quarter (EOQ) tomorrow, and a four-day work week with the Good Friday holiday, I’m expecting some fun Market On Open (MOO) and Market On Close (MOC) volume tomorrow, and then Wednesday volume dissipates into the 3-day weekend. This is a pretty big week for eco with ADP Non-Farm Employment change Wednesday with ISM Manufacturing, as well as NFP / the Unemployment Rate on Friday… but we won’t be trading that information until next Monday. So! With S&P futures higher this morning due to easing speculation as China’s central bank chief…

Happy Thursday to you! So! Let’s recap what’s happened with our SPX dropping precipitously. S&P futures were looking up pre-market, and I presumed it was pointing to a further increase into the EOM/EOQ to follow the Fed from last week. It ended up moving sideways most of the day, and then had a big volume move lower to Close at the lows (down -.17%). Looking at the daily chart, it appeared to form a “Shooting Star” candle, which can point to a reversal in trend (i.e. we rose form 2040 to 2115 in eight business days). SPX flirted with 2100 support the first part of the afternoon, and we rose to the PP finding resistance there going into lunch. After lunch, the market slowly made its way lower to break below 2100 and AGAIN Close at the Low of Day (LOD); down -0.61%. Again, a failure of some big supports, and also a relative “confirmation” of the Shooting Star candle from Monday. Here comes the sell-off! There was an ABYSMAL Durable Goods Orders report pre-market, so SPX started by testing the 10 & 20 DMA’s in the morning, finding some support on them and S1. It bounced twice off them to…

TGIF! So the SPX has slowly made its way back up to the 2014 Close / 2050-2060 area (Click on my “SPX Current” chart below for a zoomed in view). The daily chart printed a doji on the first day of the year (1/2), tested it from below on the 8th, then again on the 22nd, and now yesterday. To note, the 22nd was the highest Close this year at 2063.15. If one is to posit that this sideways nowhere-ville will continue, then one can “predict” that we’ll see another drop like we have in every other instance this year. THAT being said…  eventually trends stop.  So let’s see what kind of boom they bring. If it’s weak and we drop, look for support near the 50 DMA at 2044 (just below S1) with big selling pressure taking us to S2 around 2036 (where the 5 DMA will be). If it’s strong and we pop, then look for resistance at 2075 (where R2 is). I will say, it would be a relative “win” if we’re able to close flat to positive today, as it’s counter to what we’ve seen recently. I, personally, think there’s a fantastic chance NFP spikes… and if there’s EVER a…

Good Wednesday Morning to ya! This is my first post directly into our new website, so bear with me as to look and feel. I’ll intentionally keep it short(er) than what I typically do, but hopefully you find the new structure of the comments and charts easier to manage. If you do have suggestions, comments, critiques: by all means please let me know. So Monday the SPX made a new Low of Year (LOY) near the 200 DMA on the daily chart, and had a nice bullish candle off lows to close near 2020. Tuesday saw more of the same with us gapping higher, stair stepping lower to test the 10 and 20 DMA’s for support into lunch, and then lifting off again to test R2 and the monthly R1 into the Close. We settled almost on our High of Day (HOD); up 1.44% to 2050.03. That’s two days in a row of positive 100 bp moves, and we’re now 8 points shy of going positive (again) for the year (2014 Close is 2058.90). Even with the negative January Close (down -3.10% to start the year) we are now just a hair off positive on the year. February has started off…

The SPX opened higher with futures, and immediately made their HOD at 2028.94. We fell the first 30 minutes below PDC to test 2010 support / SPX Pivot Point (PP). After the Initial Balance (first hour range) was set, the market decided to test below the IB to 2005 (which was 2000 and the PP for ESH5).  From there the selling pressure was exhausted and we went back to value at 2010. After hanging through lunch, Mr. Market decided to take a few steps higher to test, and break through with buy-stops, PDC. 2025 resisted into the Close, and we settled slightly higher by 0.15% to 2022.55.  All in not a bad recovery off lows to positive, with resistance at the 150% extension level, from the financial crisis, of 2030.74, but also not a resoundingly bullish move either. The market is basically finding support slowly and is hanging near flat ST (the 5/10/20 DMAs), MT (50 & 100 DMAs), and LT (200 DMA) trend lines.  As I stated Tuesday, 2000 is holding so far and let’s see if earnings / ECB can push us to the 2050 level again, with a test of the 2014 Close @ 2058.90. To Note:…